Dress rehearsal is over and Canada now has to face some stiffer competition. After making mince meat of Group A they will have to shift their focus to the high power Russians. The NHL set this tournament up for Canada and the United States to make it through to the semi-finals. Canada did their part, but Team USA was too inept.
Canada vs. Russia has been one sided in best on best tournaments in recent memory. Canada vs. anybody in a best on best has been one sided in recent memory.
That doesn't make the matchup less intriguing because the Russian team has the ability to catch lightning in a bottle much like USA was hoping to but not equipped to do. The Russian forwards are actually good (great) and have the ability to strike at a moment's notice. The best way to beat Canada is to try compiling as many offensively gifted players as you can. Odds are you aren't going to control the flow of the game so when you do get offensive chances at least they will be with players who know what the heck to do with the puck.
Here's what the lines looked like at practice
Here is how both teams have looked so far in this tournament
Yes, while it is true Canada had an easier group to play in you can't ignore just how dominant their numbers are. The one area where things are equal is goaltending.
So what should we be looking for in this showdown?
Canadian forwards vs Russian defense
This is a huge mismatch. Russia's national hockey program has done a wonderful job developing some of the most fun forwards on the planet, but their attention to defensemen hasn't been the same. They really haven't had a high end guy since the Sergei's (Gonchar, Zubov) finished up their international careers. Perhaps Russia has some new blood coming through that will make an impactful difference, but that isn't going to help on September 24th of 2016. As it stands right now their defense corp. is very underwhelming and when Canada's fourth line consists of Joe Thornton, Matt Duchene, and Ryan O'Reilly you can understand why this is going to be an area of the game to focus on.
This isn't solely a defending issue. The biggest issue I see with this group is their ability to get the incredibly skilled Russian forwards the puck with speed, time, and space. Canada has a knack of bottling up teams in these tournaments.
I would use an aggressive forecheck against the Russians and put even more stress on what appears to be their team weakness. There is always the risk of getting caught and giving up an odd man rush but I like the odds for Canada in earning more chances than they give up with that mindset.
Russian line usage
The Russians do things a little different. They roll four lines, literally. It doesn't matter that they have some of the best forwards on the planet they are going to run through each line like it is an atom house game. They certainly have the depth to roll four lines however it seems like they overdo it. This means less time for Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Vladimir Tarasenko, Nikita Kucherov, and Evgeny Kuznetsov. I'd be running those guys into the ground the last half of the game but that's just me.
Here's a look at how their lines looked at practice
What about Bob?
Sergei Bobrovsky has been splendid in this tournament. He has stopped 91 out of 96 shots for a sparkling all situations save percentage of .948. That included the masterpiece he put together against Team North America where he gave up three goals but still managed to have a save percentage of .935 in the game. Canada has the fire power to make any goalie look bad but Bob showed against Team North America that he has the ability to shut down the world's most gifted offensive players. If the trend continues Russia has a chance. If not...
We all know the drill by now. It is a one and done game in a sport with incredibly high variance. Anything 'can' happen, but it is still tough to see Canada losing.
Sid vs. Geno
A lot of the attention always goes to Sid vs. Ovie (rightfully so), but it is a rare occurrence for the two Penguin legends to face off against one another. Selfishly I would love to see them get matched up against one another on a regular basis but that is very doubtful for the reason listed above. Russia doesn't really do much on the matching front. Perhaps Babcock will.
It is Saturday night and we have hockey to watch with some serious star power. Life is good.
Thanks for reading!
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