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Just a few weeks from the true start of their season, the Tampa Bay Lightning remain without one of their core pieces in town. Restricted free agent
Nikita Kucherov, the club’s top scorer from a year ago, is still without a contract, and will not report to Tampa Bay training camp without one, according to Lightning general manager and vice president
Steve Yzerman.
Yzerman was told such this week by Kucherov’s agent, Scott Greenspun.
The Lightning have about $5.8 million in projected cap space according to General Fanager, and could have even more to their name when
Ryan Callahan (hip surgery) and his $5.8 million cap-hit is placed on long-term injured reserve to begin the season. The latter might have to happen in order for the Lightning to get a long-term deal done with the 23-year-old Kucherov, as it’s unlikely you’ll see No. 86 sign a long-term deal for under $5.8 million, even after the team-friendly contracts you saw signed by both defenseman Victor Hedman and top-line center Steven Stamkos this past summer.
With 68 goals and 149 points in 211 career NHL games, including 30 goals and 66 points a year ago, the Russian winger is worthy of a contract of
at least $6 million per season. Take his utterly ridiculous postseason numbers -- 22 goals and 42 points in 45 NHL playoff games, including 11 goals and 19 points in just 17 postseason tilts a year ago -- into account and he’s worth even more.
That’s why it’s tough to pinpoint a direct comparable for Kucherov’s next contract because it’s hard to remember a player coming out of an entry-level deal that has been such an important factor for his team in both the regular season and postseason. His NHL success at all levels and stages has basically allowed him to skip a level -- the level from entry-level to typical bridge contract (like Brad Marchand’s $2.5 million per year contract with the Boston Bruins after they won the Cup on his back or Matt Duchene’s two-year, $7 million contract with Colorado inked in 2012) -- and get his payday now.
But another, albeit riskier, option for the Lightning alluded to, would be a one or two-year bridge deal for Kucherov. With fellow youthful core pieces such as
Tyler Johnson,
Ondrej Palat, and the rejuvenated
Jonathan Drouin all in need of new contracts next year, a one-year deal with Kucherov is probably the last thing Yzerman wants to add to his already crowded plate.
So if the Lightning were to commit to a two-year bridge contract with Kucherov, they would first have to get Kucherov on board with the idea, and then pay him anywhere from $4.5 million to 5.5 million, at least. That number works for the Lightning, but does it work for Kucherov? Maybe, maybe (and probably) not. I mean, and this is pure speculation, but if there are teams out there willing to go long-term for more money with Kucherov, which I’m sure there would be if this summerlong saga reaches a dreaded ‘offer sheet’ phase, why should Kucherov stay for short-term for less money?
In essence, for Kucherov to stay with the Bolts on a long-term deal, someone will have to go.
If the Lightning and Kucherov are
close in money, Yzerman could clear salary with a small trade involving a player such as penalty-killing fourth-liner
Erik Condra (signed at $1.25 million per season through 2018) or second-pairing defenseman
Andrej Sustr ($1.45 million salary and a restricted free agent at the end of this upcoming season).
Brian Boyle ($2 million salary and a free agent next summer) and the recently re-signed J.T. Brown and Vladdy Namestnikov are other options that could move to teams at affordable ($2 million per season or under) prices, but given their importance to the Lightning, it’s unlikely either of them are moved.
Ideally, the Bolts would help their cap this year and in future years with a deal involving third-line center
Valtteri Filppula ($5 million through 2017-18), all-situation winger Callahan ($5.8 million through 2020), or defenseman
Jason Garrison ($4.6 million through 2018). But Callahan and Filppula (limited) both have full no-move clauses, while Garrison has a no-trade. And everybody knows how difficult it’s become to trade players with term and movement protection -- a player that basically must be protected in an expansion draft -- with Vegas expansion looming.
The wild card in this situation is
Ben Bishop, in the final year of his contract and with a $5.9 million cap-hit, who could be moved for a solid return and create the cap space needed. And while enticing, such a move would give the keys to the Tampa Bay crease to Andrei Vasilevskiy full-time, which sounds great for the future, but might not be the best situation for a ‘win now’ group.
This situation is both fascinating and maddening.
When the Chicago Blackhawks were handcuffed into a Brandon Saad trade, it was because they basically knew an offer sheet was coming Saad’s way. But the ‘Hawks had a Stanley Cup to their name (at the expense of the Lightning, no less), so at least they had something to show for Saad’s contributions. The Lightning, though close in two consecutive seasons, do not yet have that with Kucherov. When the Boston Bruins traded restricted free agent
Phil Kessel -- who, like Kucherov, was also coming off an entry-level contract -- to Toronto in 2009, it was only after the Bruins exhausted all trades and options to free up cap room that simply wasn’t there for Kessel. (The Bruins’ best offer to Kessel was believed to be a three-year bridge deal for about $10 million in total.) And while Kessel twisted in the wind all summer long as the B’s nickeled and dimed for additional flexibility, the Kessel-to-Toronto trade didn’t actually happen ‘til late September, either, when
Brian Burke and the Maple Leafs had reacquired their previously traded picks and were ready to come at No. 81 with an offer sheet. It was only then that the Bruins and Leafs worked a deal that sent Kessel to Toronto in exchange for two first-round picks and one second-round pick.
Upon first glance, the Kessel-Boston situation undoubtedly seems a bit more similar to the Kucherov-Tampa situation than the Saad-Chicago situation. At least in regards to where the teams are at and where the players are at. In 2009, the Bruins had too much money tied up in veterans they had signed to support the youth that they were developing (and now paying). While Kessel, or Kucherov in 2016, was coming off a 30-goal season and emerged as one of the club’s best postseason talents the prior year. But what makes Tampa Bay’s present day situation different from Boston’s situation in 2009 seems to be the relationship between the parties. Kessel seemingly had issues with Boston’s coaching staff, and Boston’s coaching staff appeared to have issues with Kessel. You don’t sense that rift in Tampa Bay, which makes the whole thing … well… healthier at the negotiating table.
It’s never felt like an ‘if’, but rather a ‘when’ in regards to the Lightning re-signing Kucherov.
But as camp goes on without Kucherov on the ice, that ‘when’ seems to come back to an ‘if’; If the Lightning can clear the cap space needed to sign Kucherov to a new deal.
Ty Anderson has been covering the National Hockey League for HockeyBuzz.com since 2010, has been a member of the Pro Hockey Writers Association's Boston Chapter since 2013, and can also be read in the New England Hockey Journal magazine. Contact him on Twitter or send him an email at Ty.AndersonHB[at]gmail.com.
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