Over the course of the next few weeks leading up to the draft, I’ll be profiling several 2018 NHL draft prospects who have a chance to be taken 4th overall by the Senators. Stay tuned for more profiles!
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It feels weird trying to write about the draft as if there isn’t an ongoing fire around us the size of a forest, but nevertheless...
Every so often, there is one player projected to go in the top-10 that is extremely polarizing amongst fans and scouts. We’ve seen this recently with players such as Michael Rasmussen, Lawson Crouse, and Nick Ritchie. This year, that player is Brady Tkachuk.
Birthday: September 16th, 1999 POB: St. Louis, USA Position: Left Wing Shoots: Left Height: 6’3” Weight: 196 lbs Team: Boston University Stats: 40 GP, 8G, 23A Draft rankings: 3rd (Hockeyprospect.com), 4th (Future Considerations), 4th (ISS Hockey), 4th (McKeen’s Hockey), 4th (Bob McKenzie)
With Rasmus Dahlin, Andrei Svechnikov, and Filip Zadina projected as the top-3, Tkachuk had mostly been slotted into the fourth overall spot throughout the season. But now there is a lot more uncertainty, as realistically there are plenty of other options for the Senators. Tkachuk is a solid prospect, and he’s in that weird state where he’s so overrated by many that he’s underrated.
Tkachuk gets a lot of love from fans and scouts who love prototypical “tough” and “gritty” players, and his name certainly helps boost his value. However, that “tough” label makes him underrated by some people who go too far the other way by thinking that he is going to become some bottom six player grinder.
He’s still a top of the first round talent, although in the end it does seem like he has a lower ceiling than other players at the top.
As a September 16th 1999 birthday, he is literally the oldest player, and would have been eligible for the 2017 draft if born just one day prior. So it’s not an apples to apples comparison if we look at his production from this past year. Tkachuk was solid but unspectacular in his freshman year at Boston University with 31 points in 40 games.
I think it’s important to analyze his production from the 2016-17 season too though because of that age difference. As you can see above, he notched 23 points in 24 USHL games and 54 points in 61 USDP games. For comparison’s sake, here are some first rounder’s numbers at the same age:
---Kyle Connor with 74 points in 56 USHL games
---Clayton Keller with 37 points in 23 USHL games and 107 points in 62 USDP games
---Colin White with 17 points in 20 USHL games and 54 points in 54 USDP games
White isn’t a perfect comparison because he was 8 months older (but technically in the same age season), although it’s not a great look that Tkachuk looks much worse than Connor and Keller here. White is actually a decent offensive comparison, but his freshman season was much more successful with 43 points in 37 games. White still has a decent chance to become an NHL regular, but he isn’t exactly someone who I’d pick 4th overall.
The point here is not to say who the better is prospect amongst these players, but it is interesting when looking at other players, because we need reference points when analyzing point totals.
Despite my reservations about him and my desire to draft either Filip Zadina or any of four defensemen, there’s a reason why Tkachuk is rated so highly. Scouts love his physicality and complete effort everywhere on the ice, plus Steve Kournianos points out his good skill-set as well:
“His last name may be synonymous with hard-nosed play, goal scoring and pugilism, but this power winger has great vision, an incredibly soft set of hands and anticipates puck travel better than any of his draft-eligible peers. Brady is both quicker and more disciplined than brother Matthew or father Keith”
It’s not as if Tkachuk is projected to a grinder who doesn’t score, as he has the hands to at least be a decent point-getter in the NHL. There’s something to be said about having a scoring winger that can also dominate physically and be responsible in his own zone, a skill-set that Mark Stone shares. Obviously, Tkachuk’s offensive ability is not nearly as high as Stone’s, but it is tempting to want a complete player like this.
“Tkachuk has a pro ready game in most respects as he is physically mature and strong enough to play against men. His skating is an asset as he has good acceleration and top speed, and is very strong on his skates in terms of balance and can make power drives to the goal when he drops his shoulder and drives to the goal. He is dangerous in front of the goal as he uses his size and strength to plant himself as a screen in front of the goalie and has excellent hand-eye coordination for tips and rebounds. Tkachuk has a quick release on his shot, has a variety of dangerous shooting options from a quick wrist shot, to a powerful one-timer.”
I will say, the best thing about this quote is hearing that he has good speed and acceleration. In today’s NHL, there aren’t many “power forwards” left, and if you play that style of game, you’ll have to have some speed as well. So hopefully Tkachuk is someone who can become more of a modern day power forward, as it seems like he doesn’t have a serious exploitable flaw, besides a capped ceiling compared to more high-octane offensive players.
“His skill isn’t dynamic, but he has good hands, a decent shot and makes smart plays with the puck. He can distribute the puck, but he’s not high-end in that regard. His skating is decent for a big man, enough that I’ve seen him turn the corner on a few defensemen; but at the same time, he’s not a blazer. Coaches will love him because he plays well in any situation or role.”
To me, this screams “physically dominant player who is good at most things but doesn’t really excel at much else.” That’s most likely an NHLer, but probably more of a safe pick. Tkachuk is extremely polarizing amongst fans that I have interacted with, and I’m sure he’ll continue to be for years to come. He isn’t going to be as flashy as some of the other players available, but he’s more of a sure thing than most prospects.
If the Senators were picking around 15th, I’d be happy to have him, but they aren’t. It’ll be fascinating to see where he ends up, because if Montreal goes off the board with Quinn Hughes or Jesperi Kotkaniemi, then who knows?
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