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After the Boston Bruins knocked off the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, the defending Stanley Cup champions finally put the divisional race to bed.
As it stands today, it's a mathematical certainty that the Boston Bruins will finish with the second-overall seed in the Eastern Conference, as they cannot possibly catch the New York Rangers(first overall, +7), nor can they concede their current position to the Southeast divisional winner(Florida -7, Washington -10).
The end-result? There's an incredibly strong possibility that the Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators will meet in the first-round(
88%, per SCS). With Boston locked into their spot in the standings, the only way Ottawa could avoid drawing the defending champions in the first-round would be to climb above New Jersey for the sixth-overall seed or drop below Washington for the eighth-overall seed.
Up four points on Washington with just three games left, it's unlikely that Ottawa will slip in the standings, especially considering the upcoming schedules. The Senators' next two games are at home against the dead-to-rights Carolina Hurricanes and the aforementioned Boston Bruins, who will have little reason to push them full-throttle.
Conversely, Washington's next two games are against Tampa Bay and Florida. The Bolts aren't expected to lay down on Monday at the Tampa Bay Times Forum, and the second game against the Cats should have divisional implications.
Statistically speaking, SCS gives Ottawa just a
3% chance at dropping into eighth-place and drawing the New York Rangers.
With the eighth-overall seed unlikely, attention turns to the sixth-overall seed - a slightly more realistic of a finish for the Ottawa Senators. Sure, they're going to need a bit of help, but getting out of a first-round draw with Boston - which appears as close to set-in-stone as it gets - in favor of the Southeast divisional champion is a desirable end-result.
As it stands right now, Ottawa's about
9% likely to draw one of Florida/Washington, again per SCS. That's about three-times more likely than slipping behind the Capitals, as mentioned previously.
New Jersey's final three games include a home game against the New York Islanders, a road game against the Detroit Red Wings, and the season finale against - wait for it - the Ottawa Senators.
Bravo, scheduling office. For once in your life, you've done something for the betterment of the National Hockey League.
What makes this chase intriguing is the first tiebreaker regarding seeding. The NHL first looks at regulation + overtime victories, and Ottawa has a distinct advantage over New Jersey.
So, even if the Devils split G80/81 v. the Islanders or Red Wings, the Senators are still very much alive - just as long as they take care of business against both the Hurricanes and Bruins.
In short, the Devils magic number is three. Should they pick up three points over the next three games, they'd automatically lock up the sixth-overall seed, regardless of what Ottawa does.
To make things interesting, the Senators are going to need two consecutive wins and at least one Devils regulation loss. That's about as cut-and-dry as it can possibly get.
Below, a breakdown of all the possibilities for Ottawa to jump New Jersey in the standings:
New Jersey goes 1-2-0/0-1-2, Ottawa goes 3-0-0.
New Jersey gose 0-2-1, Ottawa goes 2-0-1.
New Jersey goes 0-0-3, Ottawa goes 2-1-0/1-0-2.
Considering how well New Jersey's played of late, with three consecutive victories heading into a Tuesday night affair with New York, I'd imagine that this is another statistical longshot.
But hey, stranger things have happened - like the
fifteenth-place Ottawa Senators reaching the post-season.
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