Make sure to add Travis on Twitter and Facebook!
With only five games on the Monday slate, I've decided to throw up the fifth edition of Eastern Conference Thoughts. Now that we're into the dark days of December, the conference is starting to really take shape, but there's still plenty of time for teams to rise and fall. Enjoy!
Atlantic Division
New York Islanders - I last left you with the ultimate betting strategy of continuing to fade the New York Islanders until they prove that they're an NHL quality team, and at this point one has to wonder whether even the die-hard fans spread across Nassau and Suffolk County are buying into my theory. See, sportsbooks know when teams are insanely good and when teams are horrifyingly bad, and they adjust the odds accordingly. You can't simply bet with the best team in the NHL and against the worst team and expect to turn profits, because the odds are adjusted to still turn a slight house advantage thanks to projected win totals. Of course, when your team is on pace to win a mind-numbing sixteen games over the course of an eighty-two season, there's plenty of money to be had. Even your biggest hockey handicapper couldn't have projected this team to win one game since October 22nd, and even though they're showing slight signs of improvement, they're falling victim to some hard luck. The loss to Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon was especially gut-wrenching for the fans in Uniondale.
New York Rangers - On multiple occasions over the past few weeks, I've read that while the Broadway Blueshirts are off to a very respectable start in lieu of Marian Gaborik and Chris Drury's lengthy absences, they'll eventually fade (and subsequently miss the post-season) because of the talent disparity and complete reliance on Henrik Lundqvist. While I can't argue that both of the aforementioned are probably true, I counter with the simple question of what franchise sitting outside of the top eight can actually bump New York? In short: No one. Carolina, Buffalo, and Ottawa are all on the fringe, but none of the three have looked anything better than a one-and-done club come April. And below them? Toronto, Florida, NYI, and NJ are virtual locks to miss, giving the Madison Square Garden real hope of returning to the playoffs in 2011.
New Jersey Devils - Is there any "elite" player in the NHL more enigmatic than Ilya Kovalchuk these days? We've seen him at his absolute worst - turning it over with reckless abandon, losing control of the puck in shootouts, failing to backcheck, and we've seen him at his absolute best, lining up absolute laser beam one-timers that nearly rip the back of the netting. I don't think there's a forward with a more accurate and frightening shot in the league, but unfortunately for Kovalchuk and the New Jersey Devils, it doesn't really matter much right now. Right now, the only thing relevant in Newark is whether or not Lou Lam or Jacques Lemaire will step behind the bench at some point in this season.
Philadelphia Flyers - With so many things going right for the Philadelphia Flyers these days, it seems trivial to debate whether the team will improve or regress with the return of Daniel Carcillo. The lineup across the board has been quite productive, but Nik Zherdev continues to be a disappointment in Philly, and as a fourth-liner without any meaningful power-play time, there's a good chance Car Bomb will take over his spot in the starting lineup. Carcillo, obviously, is Philadelphia's version of Sean Avery, but that's not necessarily a slight. The fact is, both Carcillo and Avery can play the game of hockey and play it well - it's just a matter of doing it consistently without stepping over the line. After missing eight games with a knee sprain, Carcillo's been medically cleared to play, and another lackluster effort by Zherdev against the Islanders on Sunday could get the wheels turning sooner rather than later.
Pittsburgh Penguins - Evgeni Malkin, where art thou? With only five goals in the past eighteen games, some Penguins fans are beginning to speculate on the cause of Geno's offensive slump. Some are blaming his sore left knee, where others are pointing to his inability to find a comfortable fit of linemates these days. Even though he's still clocking in with a respectable 22 points in 26 games played, it's far below his previous averages - since his rookie year, Evgeni Malkin has never finished a season with a sub-one PPG average. Coach Dan Bylsma continues to praise Malkin for his work on both ends of the ice, but it's hard to sweep the lack of production on the stat sheet under the rug for long, as Kris Letang has officially jumped him for 2nd place on the team with 26 points.
Northeast Division
Boston Bruins - And all of a sudden, the Boston Bruins aren't as bulletproof as they once were. Why? For starters, the offense hasn't been as productive as it was earlier in the year. If you remove the complete sandblasting of the Tampa Bay Lightning this past week, they've scored just ten goals in six games, or 1.66 per. Not exactly lighting the lamp at a breakneck pace, but again, this team can remain as competitive as any with that absolute freak Tim Thomas between the pipes. Everyone's waiting for his numbers to regress to their natural mean, and they aren't; That, my friends, is a statistical anomaly. His grand larceny on Francois Beauchemin Saturday night could end up being the best save we see this year, yet he's pulling off similarly impressive stops game after game after game.
Buffalo Sabres - Death, taxes, and the Buffalo Sabres being relevant. No matter how outraged this awesome fan base can get over the managerial style of Darcy Regier and head coach Lindy Ruff, the team will always find a way to mix it up in the conference race. A brutal start to the season left fans wondering why this team wasn't completely blown up in favor of young talent and draft picks, but eight wins in thirteen games has changed the tune in Buffalo for the time being. The impetus behind the run, of course, is all-world talent Ryan Miller, who is fresh off back-to-back shutouts against Columbus and Ottawa. Through the past five games, he's posting a freakish .961 save percentage - the only thing scarier than that number is the fact that Tim Thomas has posted a similar split over the course of the entire season.
Montreal Canadiens - Hear that noise? There's a little unrest in Montreal right now after the team dropped games to Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Edmonton over the course of nine days. They followed up the brief losing stretch with impressive wins over New Jersey and San Jose, but some fans aren't exactly thrilled with the play of their high priced players, most notably Mike Cammalleri and Scott Gomez. Cammalleri's not exactly "disappointing", but after that torrid scoring stretch in last year's post-season, many expected his numbers to skyrocket in 2010-2011. He's tied for third on the team in goals scored, but don't expect that to last long - he's arguably the most talented player on the roster and has that cerebral approach every team needs in a top-six forward, and he'll almost certainly finish ahead of Tomas Plekanec and Andrei Kostitsyn in the goal race. On the other hand, there's very little reason for optimism with Scott Gomez. To put it nicely - well, he's been flat out brutal this year. The fact that he's a $7.3M cap hit through 2013-2014 is going to have Rogaine flying off of the shelves in Montreal for years to come.
Ottawa Senators - Thanks to the unbelievable scoring prowess of Mr. Chris Kelly, the Senators skyrocketed in the team GPG category to 28th overall! Sarcasm aside, the maligned offense in Ottawa has absolutely crippled any hopes of this team being a legitimate playoff team, and right now they're playing the part of a high-priced, low-productivity franchise that's going to be on the outside looking in until the ship is officially righted. Scoring 2.18 GPG is quite frankly awful, and when you consider they're only .06 ahead of the Maple Leafs, you realize the precarious position they're putting themselves in. The bright spots all year have been between the pipes in Brian Elliott and Pascal Leclaire, and it's hard to imagine where this team would be without their stellar play on a nightly basis. Scratch that; it's actually quite easy to imagine where this team would be, and it's called dead last. And by dead last, I mean second-to-last, because no one's counting the New York Islanders these days, right?
Toronto Maple Leafs - Lost in Toronto's complete debacle of a season is the goal-scoring prowess of Nikolai Kulemin, who currently ranks second on the team in goals behind Phil Kessel. In my pre-season predictions, I went off-the-wall a bit with my two breakout players this year, picking both Kulemin and Gilbert Brule of Edmonton. While Brule hasn't exactly made me look intelligent, Kulemin's doing the complete opposite, and I think a lot of the fans in Toronto are sweeping his solid play under the rug because of how porous this team has been across the board. If he finishes the year at his current pace, he'll end with thirty goals on a team that will finish near the bottom of the NHL in pretty much every relevant offensive category, and that kind of player progression and development will go a long way in helping Toronto become a contender in the not-so-distant future.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Thrashers Raise your hand if you thought the Dustin Byfuglien experiment would be a complete disaster. Now that I've returned my hands from the air to the keyboard, let me try and put into words the kind of season Big Buff is having for the Thrashers - in one word, dynamic. This isn't just some small sample size where you see a player's numbers skyrocket for whatever reason, and his splits are just off the charts good right now. Through twenty-seven games, Byfuglien's scored ten goals and eighteen assists, and more importantly than all has given Atlanta a game-changing body on their blueline. One could make the argument that through the first third of the season, Byfuglien's been the biggest surprise of the NHL season. Did anyone think his transition would go this smoothly? A world-class talent, sure, but it's not exactly easy to change positions in the NHL and just take-off like he has.
Carolina Hurricanes - Up and down. That's the best way to describe the Carolina Hurricanes, who might just be the most volatile team in the Eastern Conference. Their nightly Jekyll/Hyde performance is a complete crapshoot, and there seems to be little rhyme or rhythm as to which team will show up. Some players on the roster have pinpointed their inconsistency as the main reason why their current spot in the standings (9th overall) is a bit lackluster, with Chad LaRose describing their play as "roller-coaster". Hell, don't take my word for it: After beating the ultra-talented Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center with an impressive display of defense and goaltending, they came back to Raleigh and were thumped by Dallas. After a couple of days off, the 'Canes hosted the Avalanche and watched Cam Ward outduel Craig Anderson, only to be thrashed in Nashville the next night. And it's not just results oriented, either - the Predators, who don't exactly have the world's toughest offense, scored five goals against Carolina, tallying seventeen shots alone in the first period.
Florida Panthers - Here's a fun fact: "The Panthers have the lowest winning percentage in shootout games of any team in the league since the NHL adopted the format before the 2005-06 season." Here's another one: The team's leading goal scorer is still Mike Santorelli, which pretty much defies any kind of common sense one can conjure while watching this team. The Panthers are no longer the pushover they were the past couple of seasons, but this team is plagued day-in and day-out with inconsistent and unreliable offense, and a lot of that is a product of the failure to produce a formidable top-line. Michael Frolik, Stephen Weiss, and David Booth see a lot of first-line minutes, yet none are having years comparable to those projected by multiple statisticians across the league.
Tampa Bay Lightning - The last edition of Eastern Conference Thoughts focused on the goaltending tandem in Tampa Bay and why it would hold them back for quite some time, and let's just say that take alone removed the stigma that will forever be attached to my name for picking Gilbert Brule as a breakout talent of the Western Conference. In the past five games, Tampa Bay is giving up - get ready for this - 5.2 goals per game. 5.2 goals per game. 5.2 goals per game. At what point is Guy Boucher/Steve Yzerman going to realize that the Mike Smith/Dan Ellis horror show isn't exactly working out, and that bringing in a goaltender might make this team a serious contender considering the front-end talent they already possess? For those wondering, the "battle" right now has Dan Ellis' .880 save percentage edging out Mike Smith's .870. The scariest part, of course, is that Tampa's actually won fifteen games(and 2 OTL) with this Mickey Mouse operation.
Washington Capitals - Savior Scott Hannan. Seriously, Washington? First off, Colorado caught the Capitals with their pants down on this trade. I know defense is of the utmost importance, but losing a talent like Tomas Fleischmann for a guy who has never eclipsed the 25-point mark in his entire career is just mind-boggling. Sure, his game is made up on the defensive end, and I applaud the Capitals for shoring up their most obvious problem, but this team's a Stanley Cup contender. They would've been much better off waiting for the trade deadline and bringing in a proven commodity that comes in and makes an immediate impact on their top-four, but McPhee panicked. The best part of this, of course, is when Washington goes out at the deadline and brings in said top-four defenseman, and every Capitals fan is stuck wondering why the Fleischmann/Hannan move was even made in the first place. Again, there heart was in the right place, and Hannan's not a bad player, but not at that price.
--
I'll end with another golden tweet by Paul Bissonnette: BizNasty2point0 @misscandylandy ur my favorite ice girl in the league. And u got more ice time then me tonight.
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»