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Just under a week ago I wrote a post suggesting
the Calgary Flames should not trade Dougie Hamilton.
Since that point his name has continued to be mentioned as someone who could *potentially* be available this off-season – and
by mainstream media members, too.
You never say never – if Edmonton were to offer Oscar Klefbom and a couple 1st round picks, obviously you do it – but, generally speaking, I think moving Hamilton would be a truly awful idea.
Let's take a closer look at why.
Hamilton is rare
In 2017-18, 14 right-handed defenseman a) averaged more than 20 minutes per game; b) produced at least 40 points and; c) posted a positive Corsi For% relative to the team. 14! That means more than half the league is playing without the luxury of someone like Hamilton.
Not only is Hamilton part of an elite group, but he's younger and cheaper than the average player in it.
How many of those guys are going to be available this summer? One, and that's because John Carlson is almost certainly going to price himself out of Washington. If the salary cap didn't exist, they'd hand over a blank check to keep him around. They don't want to lose him, nor should they.
Players who bring what Hamilton does to the table are rare. When you get one, you hold onto him. It's as simple as that.
Want to make a meaningful change following a disappointing season? Go right ahead. Want to trade from a position of strength (defense)? By all means. But don't move Hamilton.
Hamilton is rare x2
Hamilton has been a member of the Flames for three seasons. He has scored 42 goals and recorded 137 points in that time.
Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Victor Hedman, Roman Josi, Dustin Byfuglien, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mark Giordano are the only other defenders to record a) at least 40 goals and; b) at least 130 points over the last three years.
Are any of those guys going to be available this off-season? *Maybe* OEL if the Coyotes don't think they can re-sign him. In other words, none would be on the market by choice. So why should Hamilton be?
The Flames would break up a dominant pairing
Over the last two seasons, 94 pairings have played at least 600 minutes together. Mark Giordano and Dougie Hamilton rank at or near the top of the list in Corsi For%, Expected Goals For%, Goals For%, and compare favorably to most of the NHL's elite pairings.
You'll notice eight of those 10 pairings found themselves playing post-season hockey. One of the two that didn't (Esa Lindell and John Klingberg) were on a Dallas team that completely fell apart over the last dozen games or so and still only just missed.
If the Flames were to trade Hamilton, they'd be throwing away arguably the best pairing in the NHL over the last two years. If they're not the best, they're certainly up there.
Keeping elite company
Take a look at this table and tell me which defensemen had the best season.
You digest all that? Good.
Player F (for Flames) is Dougie Hamilton and the rest of the defenders in that group are this year's Norris finalists: P.K. Subban (Player P), Victor Hedman (Player L), and Drew Doughty (Player K).
Hamilton finished tops in three of the four 5v5 categories and the difference between he and Hedman for 1st and 2nd in points/60 wasn't a big one.
I'm not saying I would/wouldn't take Hamilton over those guys. What I will say is Hamilton's numbers are as good, if not better, and he is the youngest and cheapest of the bunch.
Again, all of the other players are considered untouchable. Why isn't Hamilton?
Note: data via Hockey-Reference and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
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The Flames should not trade Dougie Hamilton
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The Flames should make a play for Ilya Kovalchuk
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Trading T.J. Brodie could make sense for the Flames
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