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Five things to watch for when the Calgary Flames take on the Arizona Coyotes:
1. Arizona's top line
The Coyotes recently put Richard Panik on the top unit alongside Clayton Keller and Derek Stepan. The early returns have been excellent. In a little less than an hour together, they have controlled 58.12% of the shot attempts and are expected to score 63.87% of the goals.
With the Coyotes at home, they control the matchups. The top line can largely avoid Mikael Backlund and the Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton pairing, which means they could be in for a good night.
2. Improved play from the Coyotes
The Coyotes are last place in the NHL. They're not playing like a last place team right now, though.
Over the last 12 games, they own a respectable 6-5-1 record and have posted surprisingly impressive numbers.
During that stretch, they rank 3rd in 5v5 Corsi For%, 2nd in 5v5 Scoring Chance For%, and have at least broken even in the chance department in all 12 games.
They're not going to be the free win you'd expect from simply looking at the standings. The Flames have to play well if they're going to keep their (*extremely* slim) playoff hopes alive.
3. Troy Brouwer's usage
The Flames generate fewer scoring chances/60 with Brouwer on the ice than any other player in their lineup who has appeared in at least 30 games.
Despite that, Brouwer finds himself on the 2nd line and 2nd power play. I wouldn't expect much from those units if he isn't taken off them.
4. Mike Smith
He has not been himself since returning from injury. This isn't a great spot for him to get back on track, either, as there have been numerous studies published –
such as this one – that indicate starting a goaltender consecutive days is a -EV decision and should rarely be done.
It's no surprise the Flames are expected to go back to their starting goaltender. That doesn't necessarily mean it's the right move.
5. Rasmus Anderson
Andersson is expected to play in his second NHL game tonight. He has been fantastic at the AHL level for a couple years now and there's plenty of reason to believe he's ready to make the jump as a full-time NHLer. This is a good opportunity for him to prove that.
Here are the projected lineups:
Calgary
Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Sam Bennett
Troy Brouwer - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Micheal Ferland - Mark Jankowski - Kris Versteeg
Curtis Lazar - Matt Stajan - Garnet Hathaway
Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
Michael Stone - Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak - Ramus Andersson
Mike Smith
Arizona (via DailyFaceoff.com)
Clayton Keller - Derek Stepan - Richard Panik
Max Domi - Christian Dvorak - Brendan Perlini
Jordan Martinook - Brad Richardson - Nick Cousins
Josh Archibald - Zac Rinaldo - Christian Fischer
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Jason Demers
Jakob Chychrun - Alex Goligoski
Kevin Connauton - Niklas Hjalmarsson
Antti Raanta
Puck drop is just after 10:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW and FS-A.
Note: data via NaturalStatTrick.com and Corsica.Hockey.
Recent posts:
Home struggles continue as Flames fall to Sharks
The Flames were smart to re-sign Mikael Backlund
Gaudreau - Monahan - Ferland line has been one of league's best this season
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