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G20 Calgary Flames @ Washington Capitals: Five things to watch

November 20, 2017, 11:49 AM ET [64 Comments]
Todd Cordell
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The Calgary Flames did not play their best on Saturday afternoon – and were without the services of one of their top players in Matthew Tkachuk – but still managed to pull out a win in Philadelphia.

They'll be looking to build on that tonight when they take on another Metro Division opponent in the Washington Capitals.

For years, the Capitals were among the elite in the NHL. That is no longer the case.

They still have star power but lost a ton of depth and their numbers have taken a huge hit as a result.

They're a bottom-10 team in terms of controlling shot attempts, and scoring chances, at 5v5 and look even worse when it comes to Expected Goals For%. There, they rank 28th and only ahead of awful teams like Arizona, Buffalo, and Colorado.

Making matters worse is the lack of team discipline. They have taken 106 minors and own a minus-17 differential, good for 29th in the NHL, which makes it very difficult for them to win the special teams battle on a nightly basis.

Simply put, this team has a lot of flaws and are much more beatable than they've been in recent years. This is a good opportunity for the Flames to pick up another two points and inch towards top spot in the division.

Here are the projected lineups:

Calgary

Johnny Gaudreau - Sean Monahan - Michael Ferland
Matthew Tkachuk - Mikael Backlund - Michael Frolik
Sam Bennett - Mark Jankowski - Jaromir Jagr
Kris Versteeg - Curtis Lazar - Troy Brouwer

Mark Giordano - Dougie Hamilton
T.J. Brodie - Travis Hamonic
Brett Kulak - Michael Stone

Mike Smith

Washington (via DailyFaceoff.com)

Chandler Stephenson - Nicklas Backstrom - T.J. Oshie
Alex Ovechkin - Evgeny Kuznetsov - Devante Smith-Pelly
Jakub Vrana - Lars Eller - Tom Wilson
Brett Connolly - Jay Beagle - Alex Chiasson

Brooks Orpik - John Carlson
Dmitri Orlov - Matt Niskanen
Taylor Chorney - Madison Bowey

Braden Holtby

Five things to watch:

1) The Ovechkin - Kuznetsov - Smith-Pelly line has been an absolute mess at 5v5 this season. They're controlling just 44.8% of the attempts, allowing a hair under 70 attempts/60, and they have posted an Expected Goals For% of just over 40. The Backstrom line will likely match up against Monahan's, which should leave quite a few minutes for the 3M line to expose the Caps' 2nd unit.

2) The Ovechkin line has been horrible overall but that doesn't mean the Flames can take No. 8 lightly defensively. At 5v5, Ovechkin leads the Caps in scoring and has 20 more scoring chances than the next closest player (Vrana). He's still a massive threat.

3) The Flames are quietly playing their best hockey of the season. They've gone 6-2-0 in their last eight games while controlling better than 53% of the attempts and 56.7% of the chances, good for 2nd in the NHL during that span. They should have the advantage at evens.

4) Flames goaltenders have allowed 28 goals on 183 shots (.846 save percentage) over the last six games and looked downright horrible at times during that stretch. They need to be better.

5) Your daily Micheal Ferland update: he has more 5v5 scoring chances (36), and points (9), than the likes of Sidney Crosby, Nik Ehlers, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom, and David Pastrnak, among others. In fewer games, too! Don't sleep on him.

Puck drop is just after 7:00 eastern and can be seen on SNW, NBCSWA+, TVAS.

Recent posts:

Flames sign Glenn Gawdin to entry-level contract

Flames smart to replace Brouwer with Ferland on the power play

Flames lay an egg, get blown out by Red Wings
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