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ESPN prospect analyst Corey Pronman raised some eyebrows when he released a final mock draft and it didn't have Nico Hischier, nor Nolan Patrick, going to the New Jersey Devils with the 1st overall pick in the draft.
Instead, he slotted Cale Makar into the top slot.
Naturally, it has caused some uneasiness amongst Devils fans.
I have some thoughts:
1) There is always a lot of talk leading up to the 1st overall pick. Is Team X going to take Player Y or Player Z? Could they trade the pick outright? Could they stand pat and go off the board? How often do any of the rumors come to fruition? Essentially, never.
The 1st overall pick hasn't been traded since before the salary cap era and every year, and I mean every year, the guys projected to go at the very top go at the very top.
Dating back to when the salary cap entered the league, I count maybe one surprise -- if you'll call it that -- at or near the top of the draft: Aleksander Barkov, ranked 3rd or 4th on most lists, going 2nd overall. That's it. There have been zero surprises at the top and I doubt that changes this year.
2) Do you remember the last time there was a big rumor involving the Devils and then it happened? Me neither. Lou Lamoriello was as quiet as a mouse when he was in charge and Ray Shero is the same way. Nothing gets out.
Do you think he'd let someone in the organization leak out the team's plans the day before the draft? I very much doubt it.
Either someone is guessing, or the Devils put out a smokescreen to try and draw up interest. There's no way they'd stay at the top and draft a player who is No. 3, if not lower, on essentially every team's board.
If this came from the Devils, it's a feeler to say No. 1 could be available if you *really* want to pay up for it.
3) Makar is a promising prospect. Makar is also someone who dominated in a league where a lot of the players aren't good enough to crack CHL lineups. His numbers are inflated from playing soft competition and, quite frankly, they are comparable to Dante Fabbro's, who went 17th overall a year ago. Could Makar be better? Sure, but I think putting him in the 3-5 range may even be a bit of a stretch. I can't see the Devils, or any team, taking him 1st.
4) Makar is college bound for at least a year, if not more. I know teams don't draft based on what fans want, but imagine the backlash the Devils would feel if they pass on the consensus top two picks, both of whom I think are NHL-ready, for a guy who could be a couple years away from playing in the NHL? I don't think anyone would sign up for that at the top. Imagine the reaction at the draft party the Devils are holding? God, that would be ugly.
5) I think a lot of this noise comes from the Devils needing defense. You know what else they need? Forwards. I like John Quenneville, Michael McLeod and co. as much as the next guy but the only player in the organization I could say with certainty is, or will be, good enough to play an undisputed top line role on a team capable of competing for a Stanley Cup: Taylor Hall.
I am confident Nico Hischier could be one of those guys, and you could argue Nolan Patrick will be as well.
It may not be as easy to see, but the Devils need high, high-end forwards almost as much as they need defense.
6) If the Devils keep the No. 1 pick, and they will unless their doors get blown off, they're taking Nico or Nolan. Block out anything suggesting otherwise.
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