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Predicting Production; Plekanec's Potential

August 4, 2011, 2:27 PM ET [ Comments]
Steven Hindle
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Predicting Production; Plekanec’s Potential


Although the title just rolls off your tongue(say that ten times fast..!), I would like to welcome you to a rather extensive series of pieces I will be posting over the next week predicting the potential production the Montreal Canadiens can expect, or hope for, from their top seven forwards.

Recently I have been evaluating the Canadiens outlook for the coming season, and now, to take it to a more detailed level, I will be focusing on each of the seven “top seven” forwards on the Habs, examining their production from recent years, including career highs and lows as well as what effect their potential linemates will have on their production.

I will be breaking it all down, from top to bottom, starting with the first line of Tomas Plekanec, Michael Cammalleri and Erik Cole, followed by the second unit of Scott Gomez, Brian Gionta and Max Pacioretty, finally culminating with an examination of the Canadiens now “X” factor, Andrei Kostitsyn.

First up, Montreal’s first line center, Tomas Plekanec:


Primed For Success

Since breaking into the Canadiens lineup in 2005-06, when he racked up 29 points in 67 games as a rookie, Tomas Plekanec has been an ever-evolving model of consistency.

Barely making a ripple in the water, Plekanec has quietly gone about becoming the team’s most dangerous two-way threat and, as a home-grown product, is a shining example of what can happen when the Canadiens develop a prospect properly.

Though he did experience a dip in production during the Centennial season, the left-handed Czech centerman has averaged 55 points over the last 3 years and boasts a 0.67 point per game average through his six year career.

Here is a snapshot of how Plekanec has fared over the past three seasons versus his career totals:

PlekanecPointProduction


As you can see, now in his prime, the 28 year old has become quite consistent(especially when it comes to the Habs), and, having averaged 0.69 points per game over the past three seasons, appears only to be getting better.

Yet there is a caveat to be noted when people speak about Tomas Plekanec and his potential.

For while, as great as Plekanec has been, there’s always been the burden of being alone in developing successfully.

Yes, the Canadiens have now surrounded him with much more talent than he’s ever had the privilege to play with before (outside of his National Team), yet his steady rise as a quality prospect has been a lonely one.

Aside from Andrei Kostitsyn, not exactly a success story in himself, the Canadiens have only recently begun to strongly develop quality players. Everyone else that Plekanec came through the system with either turned out to be a bust or has been shipped away. So while it’s easy to chart his progress and predict his ceiling in terms of potential production, the X factor of doing it on his own must be taken into account, especially in regards to his mental fortitude.


#14 Can Be Better

Development aside, there still remains an argument that Tomas Plekanec can be a better hockey player.

Though many will argue that he has already hit his ceiling for potential twice in earning 69 points in 2007-08 and 70 in 2009-10, we must also take into account the factors surrounding those successful seasons.

In 2007-08, at the age of 25, Plekanec enjoyed success as Alexei Kovalev tore through the NHL for the final time. In addition to Kovy’s “last stand”, Andrei Kostitsyn put up his best numbers in a Habs uniform with 26 goals and 53 points. Considering how both of his linemates played near-healthy seasons, it was easy to see how a player of such two-way skill as Plekanec was able to capitalize.

Skipping past the Centennial failures that everyone in a Canadiens jersey endured, Plekanec picked up where he left in ’07-08 as he welcomed Michael Cammalleri to his wing in ’09-10. Though a step down, of sorts, for Cammalleri, the two players clicked quite well and their chemistry played a major role in Plekanec’s ability to hit 70 points for the first time in his career.

Unfortunately for Plekanec, injuries to both of his linemates(and the rest of the core) cost him a chance to augment his totals as Andrei Kostitsyn missed a total of 23 games while Cammalleri was absent from his wing for a total of 17 games.

Impressively enough, the Habs no.1 center still managed a career high 0.85 points per game through the 2009-10 season, and, along with Brian Gionta(who I will get to in the coming days) ultimately buoyed the team through injury until their magical playoff run.

So, while there have been many factors helping or hindering Tomas Plekanec’s performance in a Montreal Canadiens jersey, management has now done nearly all it can to remove the majority of the obstacles from his way.

With the addition of Erik Cole to his wing, and the hope for a full, healthy season out of his sniper, Michael Cammalleri(Pacioretty, Gionta and Kostitsyn too!), the road to success has otherwise been paved.

Of course, Plekanec now has many more options, relatively talented ones at that, who can help him attain even loftier heights, though it remains to be seen what kind of chemistry he will have with Erik Cole? Should they not click, the fact that there is always available chemistry with Gionta and Kostitsyn, or the option of Pacioretty, should still help open the ice up in ways he has never enjoyed before.

Strong Track Record

Glancing back at his recent numbers we also get the sense that Plekanec’s play has been improving, regardless of his linemates shortcomings.

Though his production dropped again in 2010-11, he still managed to earn 55 points, picking up his fifth consecutive 20 goal season while cracking the 30 assist plateau for the third time in his career.

Further to that, last season marked the third consecutive season where Plekanec broke the 200 shot barrier. His increased involvement in the play is also worth noting as, over those past three seasons his penalty minute totals have also climbed, consistently breaking 50 minutes each year.


Improved Weapons Selection

Now, while all that is well and good, we must remember that Plekanec is slated to play with players who boast greater point per game averages than he’s used to.

Comparatively, Alex Kovalev and Mike Cammalleri have the same career ppg, 0.78, though we must also realize that Cammy is the same age as Plekanec, whie Kovy was 8.5 years Plekanec’s senior. While as prolific a scorer as Kovalev, the fact that both Plekanec and Cammalleri are the same age should go a long way to helping them maximize their potential.

Likewise, the switch from Andrei Kostitsyn to Erik Cole also provides an equal, if not greater, punch on his wing. While AK46 has averaged 0.58 ppg over the past three seasons(0.57ppg for his career), Cole brings a more consistent physical dimension to Plekanec’s wing(notably, more hits) while also boasting a career ppg og 0.63, and is fresh off a 52 point season where he averaged slightly more points per game than his career average(0.64 ppg).

Truth be told, though the Cole’s addition is an important one, the underlying reason why Tomas Plekanec will stand a greater chance of increasing his production lies in the increased amount of weapons at his disposal.

While a pup when Kovalev showed him the ways, #14 has come a long way, and with five wingers capable of hitting the 20 goal plateau(only Pacioretty and Cammalleri missed out last season; 14 goals in 37 games(0.38 gpg) and 19 goals in 67 games(0.28 gpg), respectively), the odds for success have never been tilted in his favour as hard as they will be in 2011-12.

Based on the average of his past three seasons, there’d likely not be too much of an argument from the masses were Plekanec to post his status quo of 22 goals and 33 assists(an average of 0.69 ppg), though it certainly seems far more reasonable to imagine him setting new career highs, especially when you consider that he averaged 0.85 ppg in ’09-10(70 pts in 82 games) and 0.73 ppg in ’10-11(55 pts in 80 games) with far less support.

Realistically, in weighing out all of the information and considering the average production of his fellow “top six” forwards, I don’t think it’s that far of a stretch to imagine Plekanec surpassing his career high of 29 goals(set in ’07-08) and for him to cracking 30 for the first time, while also equalling or bettering his career high of 45 assists(set in ’09-10).

While the injury factor is the one realistic obstacle no one team can ever prepare for, having stocked the cupboard for Plekanec(and also Scott Gomez), the Canadiens are no doubt hoping for great things from their no.1 centerman this season.

Interestingly enough, while perusing the numbers I also came across another caveat worth noting in that, over the past three seasons, the seven forwards signed to play in Montreal’s top six have averaged 68 games per season. Though slightly low, if Plekanec can get an average of 70 games from the five scoring wingers at his disposal, even with injuries, he should still be able to put up more points than he ever has.


The “M” Factor

Of course, the one element which may be greater than all of Plekanec’s possible wingers combined is the impact that the return of Andrei Markov will have on the Canadiens offense.

For, while I can try to sort through every possible angle to decipher what these players may truly be capable of, Andrei Markov could easily shatter all of those expectations.

His presence alone, and his health during the upcoming season may have a greater effect than anything else in regards to the Canadiens success. Given that hopes are quite high for #79 to make a successful return, the idea of Plekanec setting new career highs becomes even more plausible.


Conclusion

In my opinion, if he stays healthy and plays his average 80 games again this season, I don’t see why Plekanec cannot step up from the 60-70 point plateau to the 70-80 point plateau.




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