Predicting Production: Cammalleri’s Capabilities
Having explored the possible
potential of Tomas Plekanec’s offensive production for the upcoming season, we now turn our attention to Plekanec’s linemate and, perhaps, the most dangerous offensive weapon of the Montreal Canadiens arsenal, Michael Cammalleri.
Cammalleri, plagued by injuries over the course of his two seasons with the Habs, has yet to live up his own regular season standards since arriving in Montreal and, although his playoff performances have made up for his "sub-par" regular season totals, there is still so much to hope for from the sniper with 8 years of NHL experience.
That said, and though the sentiment that Cammy has yet to produce the regular season numbers expected of him, we should take heed in the fact that his average per game production in a Habs uniform has only been a shade below his career average(s).
Here’s a snapshot of Cammy’s production over the past three seasons, as well as his career totals(and per game averages);
As you can see, following Cammalleri’s most successful campaign in the NHL during the 2008-09 season with the Calgary Flames, his production has yet to return to similar levels.
Albeit only a couple of seasons, the truth is that #13 is, like his fellow Hab and linemate Tomas Plekanec, now entering the prime of his career. So while the struggles of the past two seasons sit at the surface of most of his evaluations, it’s worth taking a look back at Cammalleri’s most successful seasons in the NHL and the factors that enabled him to be a point-per-game player.
King For A Year
Back in 2006-07, Michael Cammalleri was but a pup by NHL standards, entering only his fourth legitimate NHL campaign with the upstart Los Angeles Kings.
Though the potential had always been there, it was not until the arrival of Anze Kopitar that the Kings finally began to see some positive returns in their young guns.
With the rookie’s emergence as an impact player in his very first year, Kopitar provided Alex Frolov, Cammalleri, Lubomir Visnovsky and Dustin Brown with career years.
Interestingly enough, it was the two youngsters in Frolov and Cammalleri who benefitted the most from Kopitar’s presence as they would lead the team in scoring with 71 and 80 points, respectively.
Here’s a look at the Kings Top Scorers in 2006-07 and their career averages heading into that year;
As you can see, each and every one of the Kings five Top Scorers from 2006-07 set career highs, surpassing their previous totals for goals, assists points and shots on goal, among other stats.
The analysis can go deeper to include the presence of veterans like Rob Blake and Craig Conroy and the effect they had on the Kings' youngsters, yet ideally it came down to the quality of players within LA’s top six. Although Cammalleri led the team in scoring during this year, it was the fact that he had such versatile options in Kopitar, Frolov and Brown while Visnovsky proved to be a perfect defensive compliment to his style of play.
Ultimately, as the core of that team was so young, identifying specific factors outside of the players natural talents, made it hard to pin down what allowed Cammalleri to thrive in LA.
Yet, now knowing the type of talent he was playing with in LA, both five on five and on the power play, we get a much greater sense of how a sniper of his calibre could thrive.
A Blazing Year in Alberta
A few seasons following Cammy’s breakout performance in La-La land he found himself in Alberta, playing on a line with Jarome Iginla for the Calgary Flames.
Having grown up a little bit, Cammalleri’s true talents were now starting to shine through and, though he’d played with talented players before, he'd never had the golden opportunity of playing with an All-Star like Jarome Iginla.
Landing on the opposing wing of the Team Canada, 50 goal scoring machine, Cammy found himself skating a light stride, potting goals at a higher rate than ever before
(0.48 gpg), and finishing the season with a 1.01 point-per-game average. Though Iginla is a greater talent than Kopitar, it must also be noted how great an impact Cammalleri being insulated by a core of talented veterans on the Flames was.
Here’s the breakdown of Calgary’s Top Scorers from 2008-09 as well as their career averages heading into the season;
In a similar fashion to the career years that Cammalleri and his young teammates experienced in LA, Cammy enjoyed a great year with the Flames because his fellow teammates also played above their means(and their career ppg averages), helping push the sniper to set new career highs in goals(39) and points(82), leading the NHL in power play goals with 19.
While the core of players on the Kings in 2006-07 and that of the Flames in 2008-09 were nearly polar opposites of one another, the variables which allowed Cammalleri were nearly the same.
Though I mentioned how difficult it is to evaluate a players success at a young age, especially when they're in a core of young players, the talent level stands out as the most prevalent factor to his success.
Similarly, while the overall talent of the Flames in '08-09 was certainly above that of the Kings in '06-07, the top talent on the team was of an All-Star caliber, though I truly believe the insulated core of veterans helped a great deal.
As it stands, top talent is a key ingredient in propelling Cammalleri to have All-Star-like seasons. It should also be noted that that “insulation” factor he experienced in Calgary was also of great importance.
Another element to consider in this analysis is that during both of his uber productive seasons, Cammy and his key catalysts(teammates) remained healthy. In Mike’s case, nearly completely so as he missed 0 games during his 82 point season with Calgary while missing but 1 game during 2006-07, the season he notched 80 points with the Kings.
Given all of the talent the 8 year NHL veteran has in his possession, and all of the experience he has gained over his 496 game career to date, it stands to reason that if the Montreal Canadiens can insulate him with the right recipe of veteran support and top level talent, he’ll undoubtedly thrive at a near point-per-game pace.
Setting the Table for 2011-12
Considering the top level talent that Cammy has enjoyed playing with during his two most successful NHL seasons, it’s safe to say that the Canadiens do not possess anything as similar as a Kopitar or an Iginla, yet what the Canadiens do possess is a mixed core of veterans and young guns who boast similar career point-per-game averages as that Flames team in ’08-09(a tough below).
Here’s a look at the Canadiens top seven forwards career point-per-game averages heading into the 2011-12 campaign;
While Gomez is the only player who is in the same point-per-game territory as Cammalleri, I think it’s safe to say that we can’t quite expect those kinds of results from #11.
That said, it might be more realistic to see Cammalleri and Plekanec pushing one another to new heights as members of the Canadiens.
Though Cammy will not benefit from the same set of skills that Kopitar and Iginla had, Plekanec is quite capable of setting new career highs with a little help from a healthy winger of Mike's stature.
And, while it would seem both will need a fair deal of support, that is exactly what the Canadiens lineup appears to have for them. Also, to be fair, I didn't even factor into the equation what kind of effect having elite puck moving defensemen like Andrei Markov and PK Subban in the lineup will have on Cammalleri, Plekanec and the rest of the Canadiens potential output.
My Conclusion
It’s hard to give a green light to Cammalleri returning to point-per-game status this season with the Habs as they are missing that prerequisite All-Star player for him to play with, yet, as I said, with Tomas Plekanec set to reach new heights and with depth ultimately rivalling the kind Cammy had in Calgary, it won't be a far stretch to see him keeping a slightly better pace than Plekanec, playing
nearly point-per-game hockey.
As I see it, if Cammalleri can play a healthier season than the two he has already skated in a Habs uniform, I expect him to reach the 30 goal plateau. While, just as he accomplished in his two most productive years, I also believe he will crack the 40 assist barrier if healthy.
To reach the 70+ point plateau, he's going to need cooperation from the hockey gods as he and his teammates will need to stay relatively healthy in order to hopefully benefit from the increased depth on the roster.
While the bottom end of Cammalleri’s possible production is not all that appealing, I will leave you with the fact that Cammy has averaged 0.77 and 0.70 points-per-game for the Habs over the last two seasons, point totals that would have reached in between 60 and 65 points had he stayed healthy.
To project that he can top those totals if healthy, and land somewhere between his average as a Hab and his career years in LA and Calgary, doesn't seem all much of a stretch to me.
Comically, perhaps, you will notice that over the course of this series of articles the underlying point will always be the team’s health. But, let’s be honest, that's always going to be the case for each team, every year. So, if I don’t take that “X” factor into consideration it wouldn’t be all that realistic for me to say that Cammy’s ceiling with the Canadiens is in the 0.85 – 0.90 points-per-game range.
Enjoy the weekend, I will be back with Erik Cole’s potential production on Monday.
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