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Would Any 2017 Draft Pick Have Cracked VGK Roster?

January 23, 2018, 12:00 AM ET [2 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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There's been a ton of talk about how more generous expansion draft rules have helped George McPhee mold an immediate winner. Even before the season, when pundits predicted the worst, the Golden Knights were already the deepest expansion team on record.

Marc-Andre Fleury and Calvin Pickard compared favorably to other top first-year goaltending duos -- for example, Florida's John Vanbiesbrouck and Mark Fitzpatrick. Up front, no other fledgling team could boast four legitimate top-six forwards all around their primes -- James Neal, David Perron, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith.

To that end, here's another area where the Knights' depth has showed itself:

View post on imgur.com


This is a chart of every true expansion team since the inception of the modern entry draft in 1969, their first entry draft pick, and usage of this pick in their inaugural season.

The basic takeway is this: Vegas is so deep that they never had to seriously consider starting the season with an 18-year-old.

This, of course, is a stark contrast to the '70s, when barebones expansion rosters were forced to give teenagers high-leverage minutes.

This didn't really change in the early '90s, as Paul Kariya and Alexei Yashin certainly could've starred for their respective first-year squads -- both were superior talents, and of course, the Sens won just 10 games in 1992-93.

The next expansion wave is a little more complex in this regard. Marian Gaborik and Patrik Stefan were clearly NHL-caiber relative to their teammates. Rostislav Klesla started the season in Columbus, but according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, he wasn't ready. Portzline also noted that it was a weaker draft and a time when younger defensemen were thought to require more development. As for David Legwand, he was embroiled in a contract dispute and literally didn't sign until the last morning of the regular season, suiting up that same night. According to Justin Bradford of Penalty Box Radio, Legwand would've easily made Nashville's forwards corps that year.

In contrast, Glass appeared in just two exhibition contests in September before being sent back to juniors.

This isn't a criticism of Glass and there are some key details to remember -- Glass was also part of a supposed "weak" draft and he's the lowest pick of this group -- but really, who from the 2017 entry draft would've cracked this deeper Golden Knights roster?

I'd say number-one pick Nico Hischier, but that's it.

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This was Sunday, after Vegas rolled Carolina 5-1. Tampa Bay took back first in the NHL tonight by blanking Chicago 2-0, but that doesn't take away from Gerard Gallant's stunning achievement.



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Winning Play

A power play which had gone 1 for 32 over the last month broke through with not one, but two goals against the Hurricanes. What was the difference?

"We hit the net, not the goalie," William Karlsson deadpanned. "Just keep putting pucks at the net, eventually it's going in."

A couple things, however, struck me about the Colin Miller man advantage marker which made it 2-0.

View post on imgur.com


First, David Perron's patience. When he receives the puck from Miller, he takes a step toward Scott Darling, suggesting shot and drawing Joakim Lindstrom away from the middle. This step clears the lane for Miller's blast.

Second, Miller's dead-center attempt was unusual. Here's his 5v4 shot location map this season, per the incomparable HockeyViz:

View post on imgur.com


As a point of comparison, here's Shayne Gostisbehere's:

View post on imgur.com


In general, defensemen want to shoot from the middle of the ice on the power play as often as possible to create more dangerous rebounds. Naturally, Gostisbehere is one of the best in the league at creating rebounds with his point shot.

The middle is a better scoring area too, so I'll ask Miller over the next couple days about trying to set up there more.

Pluses

According to Natural Stat Trick, the Pierre-Édouard Bellemare line did a bang-up job in terms of controlling play. Either Oscar Lindberg or William Carrier led Vegas forwards in Corsi For % (Lindberg, 76.19), Shooting Chances For % (Carrier, 85.71), and High-Danger Corsi For % (both, 100.0).

They also opened scoring:



Yes, that's Golden Knights legend Trevor van Riemsdyk who overplays Carrier, leaving Bellemare by himself.

As a team, the Knights finished off the game with aplomb. Down 4-1, the Canes had no sugar:



Minuses

When you go up 3-0 in the first and choke off the opposition in the third, there really isn't much to criticize.

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Fleury's save % is currently .946. It goes without saying that this isn't sustainable, but maybe it needs to be said?

His career-high is .921. The modern NHL record (41+ games played) is .938, authored by Tim Thomas in 2010-11.

Anyway, I touch on that and other topics in this this fun talk with Tyler Bischoff on KDWN 720.



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