The prospect of signing Joe Thornton is as promising as it is scary.
On one hand, the Sharks stalwart is arguably the finest set-up man of his generation. He's still effective too. His 43 assists and 3:20 Power Play/Time on Ice topped San Jose forwards last season.
Thornton also remains a proven play-driver. From 2007-08, when shot attempts became an official statistic, the pivot has recorded a positive 5v5 Corsi For % Relative to Team in every year. In fact, from 2013-17, he finished third out of 358 qualified skaters (3000+ 5v5 minutes) with a +6.63 CF% RelTM.
In many ways, Thornton appears to be the perfect addition for a squad which is,
according to Jon Rosen, "trying to find players with the ability to turn possession into actual production." To achieve this, Los Angeles "has placed an emphasis on finding players capable of distributing the puck into high-danger areas in the attacking zone."
That's Thornton in a nutshell. The future Hall of Famer, just one of 13 skaters who have registered over 1,000 career assists, has been turning possession into production for the better part of two decades.
Thornton has also emerged as a powerful locker room presence, who should inject energy into a Kings clubhouse which might need it.
On the other hand, Thornton is about to turn 38 and showed possible signs of decline last season, recording his lowest goals, assists, and points per game rates since the '90s.
Digging deeper, his 1.31 5v5 Points/60 last year was the lowest of his San Jose tenure. That's considered roughly a bottom-six figure -- Trevor Lewis recorded a 1.29 -- and indicates the centerman was eating off the man advantage. But even there, he didn't exactly feast -- his 3.54 5v5 Points/60 was the worst of his Sharks career too.
It's also of some concern how little Thornton shot the puck last season. He's always been a pass-first player, but his 2.96 5v5 Shots/60 is the worst figure registered by an individual since 2007-08 (of 2000+ qualified forwards, 750+ minutes). The year before, it was a still-low, but not rock-bottom 4.01.
On the power play, the decline was even more drastic. His 3.8 5v4 Shots/60 was fifth-worst in the league (of 199 qualified forwards, 100+ minutes), almost half of his previous 7.55.
So has pass-first become pass-first, second, and last?
Even in this state, Thornton is still dangerous, but there's something to be said about showing shot on occasion to keep the defense honest. It's also not wild to wonder if the veteran's advanced age is making it harder for him to find his shot.
If Thornton was 28, it'd be easier to say that he just had a bad year and move on.
Of course, a rough campaign for the 1997 first-overall draft pick is still a pretty good season for most. So that's some of the intrigue when it comes to inking this all-time great: Does Thornton have another MVP-caliber year -- he was fifth in 2016 Hart voting -- in him? Will he remain, as he was more like last season, a hard-to-play-against second-line center? Or will his slide continue?
It's also fair to question whether Thornton is the best fit for the Kings at this stage of the organization's outlook. He's said to be seeking a three-year deal, which might be a worthwhile risk if you're a player away from the Cup. Is that Los Angeles?
Rob Blake seems to be trying to straddle both sides of the fence here.
On one hand, he has a center, a defenseman, and a goalie who may still rank among the best in the world. Is it still time to go all out, as his predecessor did? An all-out move would've been, for example, offering the draft pick which became Gabriel Vilardi, along with Dustin Brown's contract, to Vegas or another team.
On the other hand, the farm system needs replenishing and most of Blake's core players are entering the wrong side of 30. Frankly, they're probably not prime contenders anymore.
I've heard many fans say that LA needs to get younger. There's truth to that. But the Kings also need to get better if they don't want to waste the rest of Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Drew Doughty, and Jonathan Quick's best years. And there's no question that Thornton can make them better.
A UFA gamble like this represents a stab at relevancy which doesn't touch prospects and picks. It also should preserve long-term cap flexibility. Can you say the same thing about a Matt Duchene? Or a Martin Hanzal? Whether signing Thornton pays off in more than positive press and a playoff round or two, we'll see.
***
It's a new regime, but Flyers West is still playing in Hollywood.
New Kings assistant coach Don Nachbaur played with John Stevens on the Hershey Bears and Philadelphia Flyers in the late '80s. Following that, Nachbaur was Stevens's assistant on the Philadelphia Phantoms from 2000-02.
I spoke with
Kevin Dudley of
The Spokesman-Review about Nachbaur, who coached the Spokane Chiefs from 2010-17. Dudley has covered and watched the Chiefs for many years:
Nachbaur is a respected coach among junior hockey folks. He's had a lot of success in the junior ranks and this past season was the only one in which his team missed the playoffs (he also missed the playoffs in his one season as coach of AHL Binghamton). He always seemed to have his teams overachieve -- his 2010-2011 team (his first in Spokane) was widely thought of as a team that would regress from its previous successful seasons. But Nachbaur took the team to the conference finals and he turned Tyler Johnson into a 100+ point scorer, which obviously helped his NHL chances, being an un-drafted guy and all.
It'll be interesting to see how he does as an NHL coach. He was an AHL assistant years ago in Philadelphia, but his lone head coaching year in the pro ranks, [Binghamton] finished out of the playoffs and he quickly returned to junior hockey.
I think him being an assistant in L.A. will suit him well. He's had success developing young guys into pros (the aforementioned Johnson, Carey Price, Oleg Saprykin, Patrick Marleau, etc.). He was an assistant on Team Canada's 2013 World Junior team as well.
He also coached Mitch Holmberg in Spokane, who was once a skinny fourth-liner that was often a healthy scratch. By his 20-year-old season, Holmberg had 118 points.
So overall, he got his teams to overachieve and seemed to be a good developer of talent. His last season in Spokane ended outside the playoffs, but I think that was due to a combination of tons of injuries, a shallow defense and the natural cyclical nature of junior hockey.
***
Stats as of 6/28/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.
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