Striking Stats: Kings 1/4 Season Round-Up
Striking Stats: Kings 1/2 Season Review
After Saturday's disquieting loss to the Vancouver Canucks, variations of "Kings Are Done" blasted across the Twittersphere like a New Orleans jazz funeral.
However, reports of their death are premature:
With playoff chances at over 50%, Los Angeles just needs a spring heat wave to become the team "nobody wants to play" in the first round.
Here are some intriguing 3/4 of a season (and a few games beyond) stats -- what do they spell for the last 17 games of the year?
Team
LA has tied Boston for tops in 5v5 Corsi For % (55.24). They're third in 5v5 Scoring Chances For % (53.78) and second in High-danger Corsi For % (55.27). They're second in 5v5 Expected Goals For % (54.35).
Yada yada yada.
As usual, the Kings rule the underlying stats, so what's going on with their middling won-loss record?
As has been the case all year, Los Angeles simply can't muster up enough scoring. Their 7.85 Overall Shooting % is 27th in the league. This, coupled with their 21st-ranked Overall Save % (90.5) has kept them on the outside looking in.
While LA's Overall Shooting % is often wanting, they haven't dealt with such poor team goaltending in years:
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So blame just-departed Peter Budaj? Actually, no. But I'll get to that later.
One bright spot is a fourth-ranked penalty kill (84.9%). In fact, since November 3rd, the Kings have boasted a NHL-best 3.6 4v5 Goals Against/60. The underlying stats are almost as robust -- their third-ranked 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 (57.22) and second-best Scoring Chances Against/60 (17.38) contribute to the argument that this PK has been the best in the league since early November.
Their power play, however, is another story.
Tanner Pearson
told Jon Rosen that Los Angeles is a "shooting mentality power play." In that respect, they've lived up to their billing, but the relative lack of high-danger scoring chances is alarming. Compare to last season:
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While the correlation between power play success and scoring chances seems intuitive anyway, also consider this: Eight of the top 10 aggregate 5v4 Goals For/60 NHL franchises from 2007-17 are also in the top half in the league in 5v4 Scoring Chances For/60 during that time.
So who on the LA power play isn't getting chances? More on that coming up.
Forwards
Dustin Brown
Anze Kopitar isn't the only player performing well below his Overall Individual Expected Goals. Dustin Brown's 15.57, which is third among team forwards (behind Jeff Carter and Tanner Pearson), has only translated to 10 goals so far this year.
In fact, Brown's 11.93 5v5 ixG tops the Kings.
While the 32-year-old isn't as physically intimidating as he was in his youth, he still leads all regulars at 2.5 Hits/Game.
Jeff Carter
While Carter's scoring rate has slowed, his nine 5v4 goals easily paces LA. Brown is second with four.
At 5v4, nobody up front comes close to his prolific 30.7 Individual Corsi For/60. Tyler Toffoli follows at a distant 23.0.
His nine Game-Winning Goals ties Marcel Dionne (1980-81), Charlie Simmer (1980-81), and Kopitar (2013-14) for a franchise record.
Kyle Clifford
Kyle Clifford has been credited with 125 Hits For and 75 Hits Against. This team-leading +50 Hits Differential suggests that Clifford has excelled at both meting out and avoiding physical punishment.
He has a team-worst -12 Penalty Differential.
Nic Dowd
Nic Dowd's 9.22 5v5 Individual Corsi For/60 is behind even the notoriously pass-first Kopitar (10.44).
This reluctance to shoot has also manifested itself on the man advantage. Dowd's second power play unit needs to up its shot attempts and scoring chances. His 86.92 5v4 On-Ice Corsi For/60 is far behind Kopitar's 112.38; his 15.45 5v4 Scoring Chances For/60 trails Kopitar's 21.77.
The rookie's 5v5 Offensive Zone Start % of 45.11 makes him easily the team's most-sheltered center -- Nick Shore has a 38.46, Carter 36.98, and Kopitar 32.58. Kopitar's figure is most-difficult among LA forwards.
Marian Gaborik
For a guy who's criticized for his occasional lack of involvement, it's striking that he paces the team with 3.74 5v5 Individual Scoring Chances For/60.
His +2.83 5v5 Relative Corsi For % and +10.08 Relative Scoring Chances For % also top all regulars up front.
That said, Gaborik needs to shoot more on the man advantage. His 6.42 5v4 Individual Corsi For/60 is far below last season's career-low 15.72.
One reason for this sporadic shooting is a different power play role. He's gone from a 22.45 5v4 Average Shot Distance last year to 31.35, which is caused partly by markedly less net front time than before. One of Sutter or Gaborik need to adjust here to optimize success.
Trevor Lewis
Trevor Lewis's puck persistence is shown by his team-leading 15 5v5 Individual Rebound Shots.
He's also taken the most punishment up front with 130 Hits Against.
Lewis has been an exemplary penalty killer. His 43.66 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 crowns the Kings and is fifth out of 179 qualified NHL forwards (50+ 4v5 minutes).
Dwight King
It's worth noting that before his trade, King was the league's fourth-best PK unit's second most-used forward (1:33 Shorthanded Time on Ice/Game).
Anze Kopitar
Kopitar's 13.92 Overall Individual Expected Goals, fourth on the team, has translated to just eight goals.
The captain has never seen a season below a double-digit Overall Individual Shooting % -- he's at 6.56 now.
He leads the team with 23 Penalties Drawn and a +13 Penalty Differential.
Underscoring his importance to the Kings, Kopitar is the only skater in the league to lead his team's forwards in Even Strength, Power Play, and Shorthanded Time on Ice.
Tanner Pearson
Remarkably, Pearson has more 5v5 Goals (17) than Carter (14).
In fact, his 1.34 5v5 Goals/60 is 10th in the league out of 307 qualified forwards (500+ 5v5 minutes). Pearson is ahead of Evgeni Malkin, Patrick Laine, Patrick Kane, and Vladimir Tarasenko, to name a handful.
He's scored four goals using a slapshot -- no other Kings forward has more than one.
The winger has only taken four penalties this year, lowest among regular Los Angeles forwards.
Tyler Toffoli
Like Gaborik, Toffoli can be more effective on the power play. His 20.59 5v4 Average Shot Distance last year has increased to 31.71. Concurrently, his 7.69 5v4 Individual Scoring Chances/60 last season has dropped to 3.54.
Unlike Gaborik though, Toffoli is shooting enough at 5v4 -- his current 22.99 Individual Corsi For/60 tops last campaign's 19.22. Sutter might want to set up the young winger closer to the net.
Defensemen
Drew Doughty
His 0.8 Missed Shots/Game is a dramatic improvement over last year's 1.3. He appears to be more selective with his shot, as his 10.28 Overall Individual Corsi For/60 last season has fallen to 8.54.
Derek Forbort
According to rate stats, Derek Forbort's involvement in the game has literally doubled. His 3.48 Hits For/60 last year has boomed to 6.7; his 2.7 Shot Blocks/60 last season has risen to 5.8.
In fact, this 5.8 Shot Blocks/60 figure makes him LA's most-prolific shot blocker, edging out Alec Martinez's 5.6.
These stats lend credence to the organizational belief that Forbort has added "jam" to this game this year.
His 2:03 Shorthanded Time on Ice is fourth among team defenders.
This trust in him on the penalty kill is complemented by work with Doughty that might explain some of Sutter's preference for Forbort over Brayden McNabb.
Forbort-Doughty sport a 21.3 Penalty Kill High-Danger Corsi Against/60. This number is sandwiched between 2014-15 Robyn Regehr-Doughty (18.7) and 2015-16 McNabb-Doughty (25.9). These were Doughty's most used PK partners in those respective seasons.
Oddly, Forbort leads regular LA blueliners with a 0.76 5v5 Points/60 and five 5v5 Primary Assists.
He owns a backend-worst -5.79 5v5 Relative Corsi For %. For what it's worth, Forbort has skated to a 52.82 5v5 Corsi For % with Doughty and a 34.48 with Matt Greene.
Alec Martinez
Martinez boasts a 29.77 5v4 Individual Corsi For/60, ninth in the NHL among 102 qualified defensemen (50+ 5v4 minutes).
He also has a 31.47 5v5 Defensive Zone Start %, second-toughest among Kings defensemen.
Brayden McNabb
McNabb's +6.51 5v5 Relative Corsi For % and +5.37 Relative Scoring Chances For % exceeds all LA regular defenders. He is fifth in Rel.CF% out of 177 qualified blueliners (500+ 5v5 minutes).
In comparison, Doughty owns a +2.15 5v5 Rel.CF% and +1.27 Rel.SCF%.
McNabb is aided by a blueline-cushiest 20.7 5v5 Defensive Zone Start %.
Jake Muzzin
Like Doughty, Jake Muzzin has cut down on his Missed Shots/Game. He's at 0.9 this year after a 1.1.
His 11.22 5v5 Overall Individual Corsi For/60 still makes him the defense's most-prolific shooter. That figure has dropped from last year's 14.36, which was fourth among all NHL defensemen (500+ 5v5 minutes).
Both Muzzin and Martinez demonstrate that LA's 5v4 woes aren't because of shot volume from the blueline. Muzzin's 30.75 5v4 Individual Corsi For/60 is eighth in the league; his 15.76 5v4 Individual Shots For/60 is fifth.
At 31.74 5v5 Defensive Zone Start %, Muzzin sees the most difficult faceoffs on defense.
Goaltenders
Peter Budaj
Budaj more than held up his end of the bargain: His .917 Overall Save % is 12th out of 35 qualified goalies (1500+ all minutes), while his +0.57 Adjusted Fenwick Save % lands him 13th.
His +0.79 5v5 Adj.FSv%, 13th out of 29 qualified goalies (1500+ 5v5 minutes), was also solid.
It's no exaggeration to say that Budaj saved LA's season -- it might end up being his back-up who undoes it.
(Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage “shows if a goalie is saving more or less shots than an average NHL goalie would be expected to save if they faced the same quality of unblocked shots.”)
Jeff Zatkoff
Jeff Zatkoff's 2-7-1 record is probably deserved. His .879 Overall Save % is worst out of 59 qualified goalies (500+ Overall minutes), as is his -2.89 Adj.FSv%.
The Kings are probably in the postseason right now if Zatkoff had offered even league-average play.
***
Stats as of 3/5/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.
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