Thanksgiving came early for Kings fans this morning, as both Anze Kopitar and Marian Gaborik look like they'll be back this week.
Kopitar, who has been out since November 11th with a hand/wrist injury, took morning skate flanked by Dwight King and Trevor Lewis. He looks set to come back tonight against the New York Islanders. Gaborik, who broke his foot during the World Cup of Hockey, has already missed 20 games, but hopes to return this weekend:
The immediate reaction to Kopitar's return has been varied. Of course, everybody's happy to have him back, but there's been much consternation about placing him with non-scorers like King and Lewis.
Per LA Kings Insider, these were morning skate lines up front:
King-Kopitar-Lewis
Pearson-Carter-Toffoli
Brown-Dowd-Setoguchi
Clifford-Shore-Nolan
Gaborik-Andreoff-Purcell
Considering how successful the Jeff Carter and Nic Dowd lines have been, however, it makes sense that Darryl Sutter would want to ride out the hot hand.
With Kopitar's return, the odd man out appears to be Teddy Purcell.
It's been a difficult season for Purcell, to say the least. Brought in to provide secondary scoring in Milan Lucic's stead, and appearing to have an even greater opportunity to establish himself with Gaborik's absence, the winger has responded with just two assists in 12 games.
In fairness to Purcell, he wasn't healthy to start the season, which caused Sutter to sit him for a couple weeks. When the winger came back to the line-up on November 3rd,
feeling "as good as I’m going to feel," he skated with Kopitar for not even a full five games, before the centerman's injury. Since then, he's lined up mostly with Lewis and Kyle Clifford, both solid grinders who probably aren't the best fits with the veteran playmaker.
A dive into the underlying stats supports the struggles that we've all seen. Purcell is dead last among LA's forwards with a 44.03 5v5 Corsi For %, 35.96 5v5 Scoring Chances For %, and 25 5v5 High-danger Scoring Chances For %.
Is there hope? Well, we've seen just 12 games from Purcell this season -- Relative Corsi For % will help us compare that small sample size against his career:
View post on imgur.com
So we must have patience with Purcell. Such an extreme decline is unusual, to say the least.
But how does Los Angeles get him going?
Playing him with forwards more likely to finish off his passes would be optimal. Perhaps more Kopitar? His brief stint with LA's number-one center went relatively well, as they posted a 56.5 CF% together -- that's just over 58 even strength minutes, of course -- but the winger clocks a dismal 36.4 with others.
In addition, Purcell posted a 58.6 Scoring Chances For % in those five games with Kopitar.
Indeed, the winger's creativity fits better with more offensive forwards, which even Terry Murray told the
LA Times during Purcell's first, failed tenure with the Kings:
"Good players need to play with good players. That's going to give him the best opportunity to show us how it's going to fit for him."
This was before his rookie year, and it still holds true. Few players, like Kopitar and Sidney Crosby can transcend their linemates. Purcell isn't of that caliber, but almost as significantly, he's proven that he can flourish with skilled linemates. Case in point, Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos, and Taylor Hall, as
I illustrated after the Kings signed him:
During the winger’s most productive stretch from 2010-13, his most common 5-on-5 linemates were Steven Stamkos, Vincent Lecavalier, and Martin St. Louis. He kept up, at least offensively.
Purcell averaged 2.29 5v5 Points Per 60 with Stamkos, 2.28 with St, Louis, and 2.24 with Lecavalier.
Consequently, he averaged a potent 2.14 5-on-5 Points per 60 Minutes (35th out of 229 NHL forwards with at least 2000 5-on-5 minutes) in that time.
From 2013-15, he played most of his 5-on-5 minutes with Alex Killorn, Valtteri Filppula, Derek Roy, and Nail Yakupov. Some decent players, but for the most part, not quite the same caliber of the aforementioned stars. His 5-on-5 Points per 60 crashed to 1.25 in that period (229th out of 297 forwards, 1250+ 5-on-5 minutes).
Last season, his 5-on-5 Points per 60 rebounded to 1.73, as he took most of his shifts with Taylor Hall and Leon Draisaitl. With Hall, he averaged 1.89 5v5 Points per 60.
Some power play time would help too. He's averaged less than a minute on the man advantage this season -- a steep drop from 2:31 last season, which is also about his career average.
I believe there's still a lot of skill here, and it's up to Sutter to unlock it, Purcell to show it more consistently:
The fit isn't there yet, but Purcell hasn't received a long-enough look yet with suitable linemates. Hopefully, he'll get that soon.
It'll make an improving Kings attack -- considering Dowd's rise, Kopitar and Gaborik's return -- all the more dangerous.
11/25/16 update: Purcell's roster spot may be at risk, with Gaborik and Andy Andreoff's impending returns. From LA Kings Insider:
Like Gaborik, Andy Andreoff is also on injured reserve and nearing a return. Los Angeles has one open roster spot. I’m told that no roster moves are planned for today. Should there be a roster move tomorrow, it would likely come in the hours leading up to game time. Again, the team will go through the morning skate before any official decisions are made; they’re still weighing several options, from my understanding.
Stats as of 11/22/16, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.
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