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Kempe & LaDue's Progress; About Last Night...
March 14, 2017, 3:10 PM ET [60 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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According to Micah Blake McCurdy's work, LA's loss in the "most important game of the year so far" has dropped their playoff chances from 60% to under 45%.

It was a devastating loss, no other way to slice it.

St. Louis has forged five points ahead with 14 games left for both squads. That deficit may prove unsurmountable for Los Angeles, especially considering their competitor's Charmin-soft schedule, which includes this upcoming seven-game stretch:




Nope, LA's new hope appears to be a sweep of their remaining three games with the Edmonton Oilers, seven points ahead but slowing. The Oilers are 3-5-1 in their last nine.

As for last night's effort, by and large, Los Angeles played well enough to win. I know, it's a broken record:




I also add, just because he's been maligned a lot recently, that Alec Martinez was fantastic:




But as has been the case too often this season, Los Angeles just couldn't muster enough finish.

So can the Kings get hot? We've been asking the same question all year. They're running out of time to reply.

***

On the bright side, rookies Adrian Kempe and Paul LaDue's play has been encouraging. In some ways, both have actually been better than advertised.

I was admittedly one of several critics who worried that Kempe's three-zone inconsistency in Ontario might drag on in Los Angeles -- but the youngster has provided reliable energy and reasonably-solid two-way play.

With that foundation in place, Kempe has been able to showcase some breathtaking skills -- first, and foremost, his skating:




The Swedish winger has just one goal in 12 games, but what a shot it was:




That game-winner against Washington was no fluke either -- the 2014 first-round pick can really fire it:




And he looks like more than just a shooter too:










Granted, Darryl Sutter has been feeding him cushy zone starts -- his 5v5 25.95 Defensive Zone Start % is third-easiest among forwards -- but Kempe has more than kept up with a +2.87 Relative Corsi For %, +9.39 Relative Expected Goals For %, and +12.66 Relative Scoring Chances For %. These small sample size figures lead all forwards, essentially stating that the rookie winger has helped drive play and chances well above the average teammate.

He has even received a smattering of penalty killing minutes -- four, to be exact. It's not much, but if you had told me last year that Kempe would have more NHL short-handed time in 12 games than Nic Dowd in 60 (3:36), I would've driven you to the funny farm. Dowd was easily Ontario's most-used PK'er up front then, for an AHL-best unit no less.




On the other hand, LaDue was more universally well-regarded when he was called up.

While his -2.22 Rel.CF % doesn't sparkle like Kempe's, Sutter has trusted LaDue with increasingly tougher minutes. After mashing softer, bottom-pairing minutes while paired with Brayden McNabb, the University of North Dakota product has experienced an uptick of defensive zone starts recently with Jake Muzzin -- all the while maintaining his spot on the second power-play unit.

What's stood out about LaDue has been his composure with the puck. He's not an excellent puckmover for a rookie -- he's simply an excellent puckmover:











He's also done a good job with getting his shot through -- at the moment, he's the only Kings blueliner to get more than half of his total shot attempts on goal.

While LaDue is having customary rookie hiccups in his own end with reads and decision-making -- his small sample 9.33 5v5 Scoring Chances Against/60 is by far the worse on LA's defense -- some of his one-on-one defending on the NHL's better forwards has teased above-average skating, smarts, and strength:










Personally, I've been surprised by how quickly the 24-year-old has taken to the pace of the league. While Kempe's ceiling is high but hazy, LaDue seems ticketed, with some seasoning, for a top-four role soon.

Whatever happens from now to the playoffs, these kids -- not forgetting Dowd, Derek Forbort, and Kevin Gravel, who have all flashed impact skills -- give me much reason for optimism next season.




***

Stats as of 3/14/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.

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