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400 Wins Doesn't Mean What It Used To; Smith, Neal, Subban Injury Updates

March 13, 2018, 11:59 PM ET [9 Comments]
Sheng Peng
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The Golden Knights were back skating at their practice facility this morning after 11 days away.

With them, came a raft of injury updates:


I also asked about Oscar Lindberg, but Gallant said he hadn't seen him yet either.

Malcolm Subban participated in the skate, though Max Lagace is still the acknowledged back-up. James Neal wore a red no-contact jersey. Reilly Smith came out afterwards to work out on the ice.

Tonight, it looks like we'll see the same line-up that we saw against Philadelphia on Monday.

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In Philly, Marc-Andre Fleury became just the 13th goaltender to reach 400 wins.

It's a remarkable achievement, but in the shootout era, how remarkable?

Crunching the numbers, these are what shootout era victories are approximately worth, compared to wins from the past:

1 shootout era win = 0.88 pre-lockout win = 0.83 pre-1983 win

Pre-1983 is an important consideration, because 1983-84 is when the NHL introduced the sudden death five-minute overtime to regular season games. While ties still existed, victories rose substantially after that.

Of course, the advent of the shootout in 2005-06 eliminated ties, increasing team and netminder victories dramatically. Just two years into the shootout era, Martin Brodeur broke Bernie Parent's 32-year-old single-season wins record.

I'll further explain my methodology below, but what does this mean for Fleury's accomplishment?

Fleury has 400 wins, 396 earned during the shootout era. He had four victories in 2003-04. In a different era, a lot of those 396 wins become ties.

So if Fleury had played entirely in the pre-lockout era, his current 400 would become closer to 352. If he played only before 1983, that's about 332.

Adjusting the 400-win club by shootout era yields fascinating results -- let's say every netminder here played exclusively without ties:

View post on imgur.com


Worth noting, of course, that 80-game-plus seasons didn't begin until 1974-75 -- also, Terry Sawchuk, Jacques Plante, and Glenn Hall played all or mostly in the Original Six era, which meant 70-game campaigns for them.

Here are a few thoughts so far:

* In the shootout era, I think 500 is the new 400.

* Curtis Joseph's adjusted 506-win figure is impressive, and considering his three top-three Vezina finishes, plus his reputation of being just outside of the Roy/Hasek/Brodeur/Belfour sphere in his prime, we should see him in the Hall, eventually.

* In any era, Martin Brodeur's longevity is impressive.

* There's a lot more work to do here. Adjusting for season lengths, for one. Sawchuk obviously would have a lot more wins with 82-game seasons; his prime was entirely in the 70-game season era (1949-67).

* Fleury's achievement has to be taken in context. As great as it is, you have to consider the era. For example, Tom Barrasso piled up 369 wins completely in the pre-lockout era (1983-2003); that's about 418 shootout era victories. Nobody is banging the door for Barrasso's Hall of Fame induction, despite two Cups to his credit.

* Anyway, Fleury should have a lot of game left. A few good years, 500 wins, and there should be no doubt about his Hall of Fame credentials, even if he was never considered the very best in his position in any season. Consider him the Mark Recchi of goalies.

Speaking of Barrasso, this would be the approximately 21-member 400-win club if every goalie played in the shootout era:

View post on imgur.com


(* denotes Hall of Famer)

As with Barrasso, not a lot of people are agitating for multiple Stanley Cup winners Andy Moog and Mike Vernon to get into the Hall either. Perhaps relevant to Flower, Worsley made it six years after retirement, Lumley 20 years, and Vachon 34 years.

***

A brief word about how I came to this equation:

1 shootout era win = 0.88 pre-lockout win = 0.83 pre-1983 win

Hockey Reference has a league-average record for every season in NHL history. So I just did some quick-and-dirty math: In the shootout era, obviously, the league-average team will win exactly 41 games. In the pre-lockout era, that figure drops to roughly 36. Before 1983 and the advent of sudden death overtime, the league-average squad would win about 34 games (assuming an 82-game schedule).

Pre-1983, I accounted for league-average win figures from 1945-83.

When trying to adjust up pre-shootout goaltenders' wins, I simply multiplied the netminder's winning percentage with his ties, then added that to his pre-existing victories. Like I said, quick and dirty.

These are all very rough estimates.

Special thanks to @Gregarov1 for suggesting some tweaks to my formula.

***

Instead of my normal game recap, I did a radio hit with Tyler Bischoff right after the Golden Knights' 3-2 victory over the Flyers in Philadelphia:




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Stats as of 3/12/18, courtesy of Corsica, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, and Sporting Charts.

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