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On The Effectiveness of Drake Caggiula |
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Yesterday the Oilers announced that the team had agreed to a 2 year deal with winger Drake Caggiula with an annual cap hit of 1.5 million per year. Over the last two seasons Drake has played 127 games with 20 goals and 18 assists. As far as contract goes there are plenty of comparables for Caggiula. Below are a few other names who also signed 2 year contracts at age 24.
Drake Caggiula - 127GP - 38 Points - 2x1,500,000
Vinnie Hinostroza - 106GP - 39 Points - 2x1,500,000
Sven Andrighetto - 102GP - 44 Points - 2x1,400,000
Brett Ritchie - 117GP - 34 Points - 2x1.750,000
Joakim Nordstrom - 125GP - 30 Points - 2x1,250,000
In this group Colorado is the victor as they have the best producing player per dollar. Hinostroza is an almost identical match to Caggiula in terms of production as well as TOI as both players averaged about 13.5 minutes last season. Both Brett Ritchie and Nordstrom have dropped in production since signing their contracts and are averaging under 11 minutes each a game.
It’s usage that is the biggest sticking point for Caggiula’s naysayers. McLellan loved playing Caggiula last season. Caggiula hopped around plenty last season but played over 180 minutes with Draisaitl and over 140 minutes with McDavid. Caggiula averaged almost 14 minutes a game.
And his production in that time was lousy. Not only did Caggiula not produce being given the linemates and minutes he received but he also made the teammates around him worse. In terms of possession the
ONLY forward who had a positive CF% with playing with Caggiula was Ryan Strome.
Caggiula is a polarizing player. There are many who watch him play and see a fast forward that isn't afraid to be physical and has been able to chip in some points. Those who have put more stock into analytics see things like this:
This is why I gained such a headache anytime after the 2016/2017 season when people suggested Caggiula played so good with McDavid. Caggiula is a fast player and makes good hits but he is consistently out of position, is ineffective at moving the puck out of his own end, and spends too much time chasing a play.
Despite what my original tone may have sounded like I don't think this is a deal that kills the Oilers. Personally I was hoping for a deal in the 1.25 range but the extra 250,000 won't be the straw that breaks the camel's back. I hope Caggiula continues to improve but for those who think he can be a 20 goal scorer; there is no evidence to suggest that will happen.
Caggiula brings many elements that an NHL player needs to effectively play at this level but he has yet to string them all together on a consistent basis. Starting him on the third line with Strome seems like the best bet based on the numbers. If he can gain chemistry with Strome and produce at a similar pace without relying on Draisaitl or McDavid this could end up being a fine deal for Edmonton. Worst case scenario he becomes another overpaid 4th liner.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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