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Same Strategy Produces Different Outcomes

March 19, 2018, 8:42 AM ET [30 Comments]
Sam Hitchcock
Tampa Bay Lightning Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Reflection is a valued attribute of the ambitious. In hockey, there is always room for introspection to help a team work through its blind spots. The Bruins walloped the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-0 on Saturday night, even without important contributors like Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, Charlie McAvoy and Jake DeBrusk. On Sunday, the Lightning thumped the underachieving Edmonton Oilers 3-1, succeeding in large part because they were able to impose their style of play – speed and forechecking – against a weak Oilers team, though it had failed against the Bruins. Pittsburgh, Washington, and Toronto would do well to pay attention, because Boston provided a blueprint that could lead to a premature exit if the Lightning fail to diversify their attack and keep taking dumb penalties.

The Bruins are really quick, and they used their speed to produce turnovers by stepping up in the neutral zone and imposing their physicality on the Lightning’s defensemen with a bruising forecheck. The ripple effects became obvious when Tampa Bay’s defensemen started to rush their first passes on retrievals and make panicked decisions on regroups. The Bruins’ counterattack saw ample opportunity in this game, and when the Lightning took a more deliberate approach exiting the zone, Boston used its second layer to obtain a takeaway.

The Bruins also buried the Lightning with puck movement. Boston’s skaters whipped it around vertically and horizontally, and were able to expand the attacking terrain and create fresh lanes to exploit.

On Boston’s first goal, which proved to be the game-winner, the puck bounced from Adam McQuaid to Torey Kurg, who slung it toward David Pastrnak before the Lightning’s transition defense could adjust – or at least snap out of its trance of puck-watching. Yes, Pastrnak came off the bench, but he sailed past Cedric Paquette and Mikhail Sergachev on his way to the net. No other Bruins player was near the slot besides Pastrnak, so he was hard to miss.

But the Lightning failure that precipitated that goal started along the half-wall, when Anton Stralman and Ryan Callahan trapped Tommy Wingels, overloading on the puck, and failed to come away with possession. Tampa Bay’s troubles in their own zone stemmed from an inability to contain the Bruins’s speed, and on the Pastrnak goal, the Lightning’s penchant for overloading exacerbated the issue.

The Lightning did not incur the same physicality or burst of speed to the puck when facing the Oilers, which enabled the Lightning to break out at their own pace. Tampa Bay was able to open up the transition, and the Lightning’s own quickness translated to a vicious and unrelenting forecheck, which inundated the Oilers with shot attempts and retrievals. The Lightning almost doubled the Oilers in Corsi at 5v5, and aside from Connor McDavid, Edmonton was ill-equipped to deal with the speed and playmaking by the Lightning forwards and defense. Some of the best chances for the Oilers came on odd-man rushes when the Lightning were involving their defensemen in the five-man cycle and conceded a turnover near the blue line. Anything organic outside of a counterattack came from McDavid’s brilliance.

Saturday and Sunday also saw a difference in the efficacy of the Lightning’s rush. The Bruins’ transition defense was alert to push the Lightning puck-carrier toward the boards while eliminating his passing lanes for support. This was achieved with an engaging group of back-checking Bruins forwards, who forced the Lightning into a lot of dump-and-chase, which made their offense more predictable and less creative. The worst part for Tampa Bay was how the Bruins, with their swift and well-supported breakouts, were able to limit the Lightning’s chances on the cycle, making territory advantage ephemeral.

The Lightning forecheck was not completely feckless. Yanni Gourde and Brayden Point had a few good looks before the game ballooned to a three-goal spread, but the Bruins ultimately sustained their goal: stay in front of the Lightning’s forwards.

The Bruins also exposed the Lightning in areas where they are flawed. Tampa Bay conceded two power play goals against Boston, and both started off a lost faceoff. The Lightning entered Sunday with the 26th worst penalty kill and are 28th in faceoff percentage. These statistics are scary because these weaknesses could inflict irreparable damage come playoff time, considering the Penguins have the best power play in the NHL, and the Maple Leafs and Capitals are fourth and fifth respectively.

Against the Oilers, entries were easily accomplished and the middle was not always fiercely protected. But even if the Lightning were not able to strike with a good shot off the first attempt, they were able to retrieve the puck and consistently apply pressure on an overmatched and slow defense. Variability is only necessary if the main ingredient is not working.

Of the three goals the Lighting scored on Sunday against the Oilers, one was off the draw and two were initiated by the forecheck. The Lightning had five penalties against Edmonton, but Tampa Bay succeeded at killing the handful. The playoffs are a grind and, in the odd game, the Lightning will be the slower team; that is inevitable. But at the very least, they could do themselves a favor and stay disciplined.
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