How does the past speak to the future? With Victor Hedman out for 3-6 weeks, the defensive group undergoes a stress test. Fortunately, there is data to be examined for non-Hedman defensive pairings and how they have fared, which suggests an output that does not torpedo the Lightning in terms of controlling the puck.

The best non-Hedman pairing for the Lightning before the bye week was Mikhail Sergachev and Anton Stralman. Tampa Bay would be wise to spread out these two remaining skilled, mobile defensemen; concentrating the talent without Hedman seems ill-advised. Braydon Coburn comes out the weakest of all defensive pairings for Corsi, and given his play this season, that seems less than shocking. Therefore, sticking Coburn with Stralman, where they have a -2 Corsi plus/minus over 69 minutes of 5v5, might be the best outcome for challenging times.

When pursuing an ideal defensive partner for Dan Girardi, there are multiple, favorable options. The Sergachev and Girardi pairing posted a +31 Corsi plus/minus and +3 Goals plus/minus in over 100 minutes. Also palatable is a pairing of Slater Koekkoek with Girardi, which produced a +7 Corsi plus/minus in 100 minutes.

Would Girardi become more reclusive and “stay at home” while Sergachev and Koekkoek are emboldened for more picaresque, rogue missions? Or instead of amplifying individual styles, will the Lightning continue to hew toward egalitarian aggression in their defensemen? Answers are forthcoming, yet in the latter scenario, only Sergachev and Koekkoek would have the recovery speed to minimize their poor pinches and miscues in the future, if paired with Girardi.

Finally, the Lightning can pair Jake Dotchin with either Sergachev or Koekkoek. There is no substantial sample size for either pairing since Dotchin has spent the entire season glued to Hedman’s hip. A life without Hedman is an intensified vision of a defensive group that was asymmetrical to begin with. With some cushion in the standings and at least one defenseman who is providing replacement-level work, now would be a good time to see if any of the Lightning’s defensive prospects can surprise. Also, Tampa Bay would have been wise to acquire a defenseman before the NHL trade deadline when Hedman was healthy, but now the thirst for depth is more immediate.

Looking at Eklund’s NHL rumor chart, the best move for the Lightning that would not require a major depletion of assets would be acquiring defenseman Luca Sbisa. Currently on the Golden Knights, Sbisa has warts, but he can skate and has offensive ability that can be tapped. When complemented with offensive talent, he is a player whose positives can outweigh his negatives, much like Trevor Daley during his Pittsburgh tenure. (Erik Karlsson, Tyson Barrie, Justin Faulk, and Jacob Trouba are better than Sbisa, but Tampa Bay would have to pay handsomely for their services.)

A glance at the Lightning forwards’ numbers during this bye week reveals a sparkle and twinkle. At 5v5, Kuchervov-Stamkos-Namestikov have a +66 Corsi plus/minus in 460 minutes together. Johnson-Point-Palat have a +57 Corsi plus/minus in 167 minutes. Heck, Paquette-Kunitz-Callahan have a +47 plus/minus in 130 minutes. The only person who has a deleterious impact on possession is JT Brown, who has a negative plus/minus regardless of who he is paired with on the fourth line. There is problematic evidence when he is paired with Kunitz and Paquette, and also with Callahan and Kunitz, He is the common denominator.

But one of the central planks of the Lightning’s offensive platform was just temporarily removed. The defense has heavily complemented the offense all season. The Lightning defensemen help foster the cycle, trigger the entry off the regroup, and add bite to the transition by providing an extra wave to account for in coverage. Hedman had been the nexus of that defense-to-offense interconnectivity. He had played huge minutes, and helped the Lightning stay in constant attack.

One way to look at Hedman’s injury is to see that the Lightning are giving up a part to save the whole. A short-term sacrifice for long-term benefit. One dimension of the Lightning’s play that had begun to fray before the injury to Hedman was the relationship between the forwards and defenseman on zone exits. The first pass was getting intercepted. Too often passes were directed to no one in particular at the half-wall. Some of that detritus were blind passes by Coburn and Dotchin, but Hedman was guilty of turnovers himself because the Lightning forwards had become too reliant on their defensemen to find a way to transport the puck to their forwards’ sticks. Tampa Bay’s forwards can make breakouts less laborious.

The Lightning’s forwards can use this time to regain some independence. That may mean shorter passes between the forwards to ferry the puck toward the offensive zone. It may mean sinking deeper in the defensive zone, availing themselves in the dirty areas to scrape the puck out of the muck. It will be tiring, and it will affect the offense. They certainly have the skating, and when a huge absence exists in your lineup, a bigger responsibility is asked of the collective. Scoring will decrease. But sacrifice is necessary. Malleability is a virtue come playoff time. Sometimes, bad events can precipitate positive changes.

Join the Discussion: » 9 Comments » Post New Comment

» Verhaeghe's Role if Stamkos is Sidelined

» Stamkos's Linemates Should Feed Him in the Crease

» Three Personal Goals for the Grinders

» How COVID Could Test the Bolts' Depth

» What Happens to Cooper If TB Loses