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So far in the 2013-2014 season there has been a common theme for the Pittsburgh Penguins. In many of the Penguins losses they have had quality possession numbers but not the goals to go along with the possession. Some people have taken that as a sign that possession does not matter; some have chalked it up to bad luck.
As a coach I am usually more focused on the process that is involved rather than the end results. If you can get your team to do the right things consistently which results in controlling the flow of play, I feel as though the end results will eventually sort themselves out. Over the course of a long season there will be ebbs and flows with the end result. Goal scorers run hot and cold. If my team has the puck more and I also like my chances of keeping it out of the net better too. The hard part of hockey is acquiring the black rubber disk and maintaining it. The Penguins are good at that this season.
Presently they are not getting the results on the back end, which are the goals on the scoreboard.
The Penguins were 1st overall in the NHL in goals per game last year with 3.38. So far this year they sit at 13th overall with 2.78.
So why has the Penguins much improved puck management not led to more goals this season? What gives?
It boils down to shooting percentage, specifically amongst the top 6 forward ranks.
Last season the Penguins were 3rd overall in even strength shooting percentage with 9.7%. This year they are 18th at 7.3%.
There are trends within the top 6 forward grouping that will point to why there has been a decline. Here are the shooting percentage numbers from the past 3 seasons for Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Neal, and Dupuis:
You’ll see that three out of the five players on the chart have significantly lower shooting percentages this season than what they have had in the past. Malkin, Dupuis, and Neal (obviously injury related) are all shooting at an extremely low rate at the present time.
Pascal Dupuis has gone from a career best 14.3% all the way down to an anemic 3.9%. Malkin has seen his shooting percentage plummet from his 50 goals season of 14.7% all the way to 6.3% this season. James Neal is at 0% because he has obviously not scored a goal yet this year.
The good news? Malkin and Dupuis are so low that it is only a matter of time before their shooting percentage numbers go up.
Chris Kunitz has also seen a drop in his shooting percentage this year. Kunitz had a career best 19.5% last year, but his drop to 13.6% this season is not really bad at all, that is still a really solid number. In fact it is right in line with his 12.9% career shooting percentage. Chris Kunitz is going to continue to produce at the same level he has. Should be no worries on the Kunitz front.
Sidney Crosby is showing once again why he is the best. His numbers continue to get better in each season. His drive to get better in all areas of his game is why he will go down as the best player of his generation.
Let’s take a look at the goals per game averages for the past three seasons:
The best part about this chart is on the Chris Kunitz front. His shooting percentage has dipped towards his career average of 12.9% this year, but his goals per game average is right in line with what he was at last year. It’s great news that he is sustaining his goal rate with a lower shooting percentage. Kunitz remains one of the best values in the NHL.
The not so great once again points to Malkin and Dupuis. There are big dips we see in
Malkin and Dupuis’ goals per game averages. Malkin has seen a steady drop while Dupuis is seeing a drastic drop from his previous career high in 2012-2013. For the Penguins to make the most of their puck possession these two players are going to have to get back to their previous levels of scoring goals.
There are a few variables at play for Evgeni Malkin that might point towards why his goal scoring is down. One of the reasons is pretty simplistic, he doesn’t shoot nearly as much as he used to.
In his 50 goal season his shots per game average was 4.52. Last year it dropped to 3.19, and this year is an even lower 2.66. Malkin had suffered a shoulder injury and perhaps that could be a reason why he initially saw a drop in his shooting production, but that shoulder injury should be healed by now and there should be no reason for Malkin to be in the 2.66 shots per game range. Malkin has been playing better lately but he needs to be more selfish. He needs to fire the biscuit, because when he does he scores goals.
James Neal being back in the lineup is going to help out drastically on the goal scoring front. His absence was probably a bigger deal than most people thought it was going to be.
The conclusion that I have drawn from this data is that the penguins don’t really need to change anything from an x’s and o’s standpoint. Their possession is great. What they need is for Malkin and Dupuis to step up on the goal scoring front and for James Neal to stay healthy.
This season has an artificially low cap ceiling; most teams are not as deep as they normally are. Injuries are going to pack more of a punch in the goal scoring deparment, especially when they affect the top 6 forward grouping. The injuries to Neal and Bennett have negatively impacted the Penguins. With a fully healthy forward group the ability to score goals with quality puck possession will increase.
The process for the Penguins is not the problem and I believe it will only be a matter of time before the desirable end results (goals) start to come on a regular basis.
Stay the course, the results will follow, health permitting.
Thanks for reading!
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