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What should the Penguins pay Brian Dumoulin?

June 27, 2017, 11:12 AM ET [73 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Yesterday we looked at Justin Schultz's value as an RFA and the kind of contract the team could give him. Today Brian Dumoulin will receive the same treatment.

Dumoulin is an interesting study in value. On the surface he is a guy who played on the "top pairing" on back-to-back championship teams. That information alone would lead you to believe he is due for a huge raise. I'm here to say that isn't necessarily the case.

In short, Brian Dumoulin is a very functional player who also benefits from the team he plays on. He certainly deserves a raise, it just shouldn't be one reserved for "top pairing" player. I'm going to run down the positives and negatives for him. A lot of the figures I'm going to use will be during the 2015-17 sample which includes the majority of time he's been in his current role.

One thing Dumoulin has shown to be good at defending. His shot attempts against per 60 from 2015-17 was 51.65 and that places him 35th among 158 defensemen who have played 1,500 minutes.

Another positive for Dumoulin is his passing ability. He helps in transition



One of my big complaints was Dumoulin playing with Hainsey in the playoffs. I felt like it took away from one of Dumoulin's strengths, helping transition.

When Brian Dumoulin has been paired with Kris Letang the results have been very good. They are a 54.0% shot attempt pairing which is excellent. However, when Letang is away from Dumoulin his CF% is 54.3%. Letang is driving the success while Dumoulin is able to fit in and not rock the boat. There is value in that. Eating a ton of minutes and not being a liability sounds like a backhanded compliment, but it is very useful. For example, Rob Scuderi was brought in to be a "calming" presence to Letang. They were a 48.3% pairing, Letang was a 54.3% player without him. Dumoulin doesn't drag players down.

A big negative for Dumoulin and one that is probably going to cost him some money is his offensive production, or lack thereof. This is the part of Dumoulin's game that has confused me. His shot is decent, his ability to see the ice is good, and he has the quality of teammate to put up numbers. Despite those variables he is underwhelming at generating tangible offense. If you want to make the big bucks on the blue line you have to put up more offense than Dumoulin has.

His points per 60 at 5v5 is 0.53 the last two years. That ranks 172 out of 220. I think it is quite the accomplishment (not in a good way) to be that low on a list when the majority of your ice time comes with Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, and Kris Letang. He fares OK in primary assists, but not to the extent that it makes up for being that low.

Here is a visual snapshot of Brian Dumoulin



He is above average at defending and below average at generation. Generating attempts and tangible offense in this league is incredibly difficult and my philosophy is to spend your resources on generation, not prevention. This is why I am comfortable paying Justin Schultz ~4.5M and would not entertain the same thing for Dumoulin.

Matt Cane has created a model that I like for player valuation. It takes into consideration contract status (RFA) and things like offensive production among other variables. Schultz comes in at 4.8M and Dumoulin 2.5M.




I would be willing go a little bit higher than Matt's valuation. I would offer Dumoulin a five year contract for a total of 15M. The lack of offensive production and being an RFA drives the cost down for me. The five years takes him to 31 years of age. You don't give out eight year contracts to players that are not stars, period, end of story.

A million dollars for each beer seems fair



Brian Dumoulin is a nice fit for the Pittsburgh Penguins, but they shouldn't be rolling out an Olli Maatta contract for him. The Dumoulin contract is the type of contract that a team like Pittsburgh has to get right. Getting proper value on middle tier extensions is what will keep the Crosby/Malkin window open for years to come. A few mistakes here and there and there is no money left for another impact player(s) which Sid and Geno will need as they age.



Thanks for reading!
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