When the Penguins acquired Carl Hagelin late on a Friday night in the middle of the 2015-16 season the idea was that the team would be getting a huge speed boost over David Perron. That idea proved to be correct. Hagelin was a great fit with the Penguins and the HBK line did its thing.
As good as the 2015-16 sample was in Pittsburgh the 2016-17 one was not as successful. Hagelin saw his offense significantly dry up. At the end of the regular season he suffered a bad foot injury that stuck with him even after he made his return six weeks after the injury. He finished the season on the fourth line.
What does the future hold for Carl Hagelin? That is a great question. I don't think it is reasonable to expect a return to HBK levels of offense. That was a lightning in a bottle situation that paid huge dividends for the Penguins. If you look at how his offensive production has been trending last year might not be outside of what we should expect for the norm.
The 2015-16 season had a huge hike, but when you look at the 2016-17 season it falls back in line with the steady decline in 5v5 production Hagelin has had. Now, his decline started from a very impressive 2.24 points per 60 in 2011-12. So many of these years have been more than acceptable. Unfortunately, if this trend continues it will no longer be acceptable for a forward making 4M on the Penguins. With the way the Penguins are structured they need more than 1.47 points per 60 at that price point.
Hagelin's saving grace is that he is always a good possession player, always. Possession is his strength and that is a very good one to have.
I added the red line to show the 50% barrier. This guy lives well above that. In five of the last six seasons he has been ~54% or above. That's great. You want to talk about playing good defense, this is good defense. The kind where the puck is in the other team's end most of the time. His results in this area are nothing to sneeze at. The results stand on their own, too. His raw possession numbers aren't just because he is playing on good teams. When looking at how well he fares compared to teammates his results are also positive.
Don't be fooled by the drooping U curve. The lowest value on this chart is 0 which means every single year he is above average when compared to his teammates and in three of the six season you could consider him way above average. Again, this is Hagelin's strength as a player.
I like players that have shown the ability to chip in offensively who are really good possession players. Offensive production, outside of megastars, is a streaky endeavor for all NHL players. What does that player look like when the offense dries up? If you're a player like Thomas Vanek you look pretty bad. If you are Carl Hagelin you are still providing the team with some positives. The trick for Pittsburgh moving forward is valuing Hagelin's possession against Hagelin's offensive decline. At a 4M price point it is a discussion that has to happen. Pittsburgh is in pretty good shape for a back-to-back champion as far as the salary cap is concerned, but the cap space is running out with the pending Sheary contract, the Dumoulin deal, and whoever the next third line center is. It makes sense for Pittsburgh to think about moving on from one of the players in the 4M range (Hagelin, Maatta, Hornqvist).
The Hagelin decision may come down to him versus Sheary. I would roll the dice with Sheary.
In the coming months Jim Rutherford may come to the same decision that the New York Rangers ultimately came to. They have a player they really like and would rather not lose, but the 4M price point became a luxury instead of a necessity given other salary cap variables. If the Penguins do come to that conclusion at least they have the ability to recover some value in a trade while New York lost the player for basically nothing.
Thanks for reading!
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