Yesterday, both Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary filed for arbitration. That is their collectively bargained right as a player in the NHL. The chances of both players getting all the way through the arbitration process and having an arbitrator dictate the contract terms are incredibly low. The lion's share of players in this situation end up signing before the hearing itself. PK Subban actually went through the hearing but then came to terms with the Canadiens before the arbitrator officially ruled. Montreal never did anything right with Subban.
The problem with a hearing is that the team is going to try and make a case why that player isn't as important as they think they are. That has the potential to get messy. Yeah, everybody is a professional, but nobody loves hearing their employer speak down to them on their abilities and contributions.
For the sake of argument what would an arbitrator award Conor Sheary and/or Brian Dumoulin? Let's take a look at some of the recent cases that have actually been decided by the arbitrator.
In the 2014 offseason the only case I can track down that received a decision was Vladimir Sobotka
Here is what Sobotka's prior two years looked like
Here is what Conor Sheary's prior two years looked like
That second year is more impressive than what Sobotka put up for 2.75M. Understand that the arbitration process has a more classic style of evaluation. They are going to look at points per game and offensive totals and not so much possession and quality of teammate and a lot of the other modern mechanisms we have at our disposal now.
That said you are also mercy to the individual arbitrator. Remember how Sobotka got 2.75M? Well Mike Hoffman only got 2.0M in the summer of 2015 after scoring 27 goals
Also that summer was Marcus Johansson's hearing. His team took him to arbitration which meant they had to accept whatever the arbitrator awarded
*Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin asked for arbitration which means the ruling isn't binding. The team either has to accept it or allow the player to hit unrestricted free agency where the other 30 teams can sign them, but not the team that rejected the settlement.
He was given a one-year 3.75 million dollar contract by the arbitrator. It was the fourth largest arbitration award of the past decade. Here are the other awards from the top five list compiled by
Jared Clinton of The Hockey News:
5. Mike Cammallieri two-year contract, $3.35 million per season
4. Marcus Johansson one-year contract, $3.75 million per season
3. Nikolay Zherdev one-year contract, $3.9 million per season
T2. Daniel Briere one-year contract, $5 million per season
T2. Scott Gomez one-year contract, $5 million per season
1. Shea Weber one-year contract, $7.5 million per season
Last summer 25 players filed for arbitration and none of them made it to a decision. Only Tyson Barrie actually sat through a hearing, but like Subban, settled with his team before the ruling.
You'll notice I don't have any comparables for Brian Dumoulin and that is because there haven't been. After looking at a 27 goal scorer getting a 2M "award" you can see why Conor Sheary is in a better spot than Dumoulin if the arbitration case were to be heard and ruled on. Dumoulin just doesn't produce enough offense to move the needle.
He has just a single goal and even for a defenseman that isn't very good. Especially when you consider that five of the top six most common teammates he's shared the ice with during this time are Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz, Patric Hornqvist, and Kris Letang. Ben Lovejoy was the other skater.
His 0.53 5v5 points per 60 the last two years places him 158 out of the 194 defenders who played 1,000 minutes. None of the players below him had Sidney Crosby and Phil Kessel as their two most common teammates. Even Ron Hainsey comes in at 0.57.
I don't believe either player will actually go through with the hearing. If they do Sheary will get more money. However, I'm more worried about the team giving Brian Dumoulin an "Olli Maatta contract" which would make for two players who don't deserve an "Olli Maatta" contract.
I value Dumoulin's strengths. He is an asset in transition and that is probably understating it. He facilitates a competent breakout to Pittsburgh's great asset, their forwards.
That said, you need to move the needle offensively to get upwards of 4M per year. The Dumoulin extensions are the ones you need to be careful with. That is the kind middle tier contract where a GM can get to loose with the pocket book and can catch up to a cap ceiling team pretty fast. An overpay here and an overpay there and you'll end up like the Washington Capitals before you know it. This isn't Jim Rutherford's first year on the job, obviously, but it is his first year without Jason Botterill helping with the cap. In Rutherford's first month on the job he elected to take on Nick Spaling instead of a draft pick. A certain Assistant GM is rumored to have advised strongly against that. Ultimately, paying a replacement level player 2.2M led to the team playing with five defenders to close out the regular season. Lesson hopefully learned.
Rutherford does get to operate under an ownership group that allows him to spend to the cap ceiling unlike in Carolina. This is a huge blessing for a general manager. Presently the Penguins are in great shape. It will be Rutherford's job to keep it that way. The Brian Dumoulin and Conor Sheary extensions will be the first test on that front.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»