The Pittsburgh Penguins will return to action tonight and face the Washington Capitals for the honor to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. By all accounts this is the jewel of the second round and should deliver some intense, interesting, and entertaining hockey.
It wouldn't be a run to the Stanley Cup for the Penguins if it didn't involve the Capitals, literally. Every single championship the Penguins have won has come after defeating the Capitals along the way. There is a good chance that could happen again this year because if the Penguins are fortunate enough to beat Washington they would more than likely be the favored team to win it all.
However, this chapter of the Pittsburgh/Washington rivalry will feature the Capitals as a solid favorite heading into the series. Pittsburgh will have their hands full. The two teams are headed in different directions at the moment.
Here are the 15 game rolling averages for Pittsburgh and Washington in xGF%. This sample does include the playoffs.
Pittsburgh is suffering from a nose dive while Washington flirted with the 50% barrier for a stretch and is now comfortably above it. There is hope. This is what the Minnesota and St. Louis chart looked like before their series and St. Louis was able to win in five games. It only took Jake Allen's .956 all situations save percentage...
How has each team done defending shot attempts?
Going up on this chart is not good. It means you are bleeding more and more attempts. Both teams are on the rise, but Pittsburgh is significantly worse and they are doing the worst they have all year in this area. I don't like the idea of Washington peppering Marc-Andre Fleury
As far as shot generation goes
Pittsburgh was really good at this earlier in the year and it has progressively gotten worse. Injuries are a legit reason for this. Getting Carl Hagelin and Chris Kunitz back in the lineup should help the team out, but in my estimation it does not compensate for Kris Letang being out of the lineup.
Some might want to reference Mike Sullivan speaking about scoring chances in prior press conferences and how the team values that kind of thing more often. Bad news there as well
This one isn't as drastic as some of the others, but for a team focused on winning that battle they should look better than they do here. It's also worth mentioning that Toronto has been better at Columbus on that front and Washington still looks better than Pittsburgh.
When you look at the evidence it is tough to feel confident about the Penguins. Marc-Andre Fleury is going to have to be the Penguins best player for a seven game series. His track record doesn't suggest he is capable of that kind of consistency in the regular season let alone the playoffs. Let's assume he has the series of his life. The guy in the other net is also very capable of doing the same thing. In fact, it is a lot more likely that a goalie like Holtby would pull something like that off.
For Pittsburgh to win the series against the Capitals they will have to visit the PDO dealer and buy up as much of it as they can. If they don't, there is nothing about Pittsburgh's process that looks better than Washington's right now.
Carl Hagelin had a regular jersey on today at practice. Very encouraging. However, he probably won't be dressing tonight. Mike Sullivan listed him as day to day instead of a "game-time decision"
Karl Alzner will also miss tonight's contest. This won't hurt the Capitals as much as some people think. Getting Nate Schmidt in the lineup was a plus for the team who otherwise wouldn't have done it if not for the injury to Alzner.
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Off the ice there is some Penguins news to pass along
Shhhhhhh, don't tell Buffalo that's not the Assistant General Manager they want from Pittsburgh.
I had the pleasure of chatting with a recent hockey blogging retiree last night.
Thanks for reading!
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