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Roster Decision That Could Turn Sens Playoff Hopes + Letang Out Long Term? |
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The Penguins begin their last week of competition before the Olympic break with a home contest against the Ottawa Senators.
The Senators are on the cusp of being a playoff team again, but currently find themselves 2 points out of a playoff spot. Tonight's game has a lot more on the line for Ottawa than it does for Pittsburgh.
The Senators have made some quality personnel moves this year by picking up forwards such as Bobby Ryan and Clarke MacArthur. They also have a healthy Erik Karlsson and Jason Spezza, so what gives?
The Ottawa Senators are a little bit like the Devils this year in the sense that they have been riding the wrong goaltender for too long.
It is understandable why the Senators would be loyal to Craig Anderson considering the kind of eye popping numbers he put up last season (EVSV .943%). However, this year his numbers have dropped off and are not near the 2012-2013 levels that saw him on his way to a Vezina Trophy before he was injured. Anderson has seen a significant drop in his EVSV% all the way to .922%. That percentage is still very respectable but not nearly good enough to ignore Robin Lehner.
In 21 games this season Robin Lehner has a .926% EVSV%. That is only a .04 difference in save percentage, so why do I think that Lehner deserves the #1 job over Anderson? Quality of play while shorthanded.
When the Senators are shorthanded they are receiving abysmal goaltending from Anderson. When compared with other goaltenders that have played at least 100 minutes of shorthanded action this year Anderson ranks dead last (42nd). Anderson has an anemic shorthanded save percentage of .813%. Last year Anderson was at .933% shorthanded, which was 3rd best in the league.
On the flip side Robin Lehner is ranked 9th overall at .904% this season. That is markedly better than Anderson's performance this year.
Shorthanded save percentage fluctuates a lot from year to year and it usually is not reflective of a goaltender’s ability. It is a huge reason why I prefer to use EVSV% to gauge the quality of a goaltender and not overall save percentage. However, when you see such a drastic difference in shorthanded save percentage between two teammates within the same season, I think it deserves attention.
This is especially important considering that the Senators have taken the 3rd most penalties in the league this year (209).
The Senators are only 2 points back of a wild card playoff spot, their choices with who they play in net could be the difference between getting in or missing out on the playoffs.
As for the Penguins Kris Letang will not be in the lineup tonight in what is being described as a potential long term illness. I normally don’t like to speculate on these kinds of things but my money would be on mononucleosis. Mononucleosis is something that a hockey player cannot play through. In many cases there is a swelling of the spleen and the physical contact in hockey can make the spleen susceptible to rupturing. The most common symptom from mono is the overall feeling of being fatigued, also something not advantageous if your profession is playing hockey.
Mono would easily explain why Letang looks fine on the surface but is unable to play. Like I said, this is only my own personal speculation, we will have to wait on the official word from the Penguins.
The last time these two squads met it did not end well for the Penguins. The Senators shut out the Penguins 5-0, but that was the least of the Penguins issues stemming from that game. Ottawa defenseman Marc Methot labeled Sidney Crosby with a text book hip check that sent the Penguins center flying. Unfortunately his flight was intercepted by Pascal Dupuis’ leg/knee. The result of the play was Pascal Dupuis tearing his ACL/MCL and missing the remainder of this season. The Penguins are still searching for the right personnel to replace Dupuis’ absence in the lineup.
Bobby Ryan has handled himself like a true pro in regards to his Olympic snub but don’t think for a second that sticking it to Dan Bylsma and Ray Shero isn’t in his subconscious tonight. Expect the Senators extremely talented goal scorer to have a little extra jump in his step tonight.
Injuries
Other than Kris Letang there are really no injuries to report for either side.
Line Combinations
Projected lineup for Penguins:
Kunitz-Crosby-Gibbons
Jokinen-Malkin-Neal
Glass-Sutter-Megna
Pyatt-Adams-Engelland
Orpik-Martin
Scuderi-Bortuzzo
Maatta-Niskanen
Projected lineup for Senators:
MacArthur-Turris-Ryan
Greening-Spezza-Michalek
Conacher-Zibanejad-Condra
Kassian-Smith-Neil
Cowen-Karlsson
Methot-Gryba
Wiercioch-Ceci
Fenclose %
The Penguins are 11th overall at 51.7%
The Senators are 15th overall at 50.5%
Ottawa was at 52.3% last season so they are definitely seeing a Drouin that area this season.
Even Strength Save Percentage
Penguins are 23rd overall at .915%
Senators are 17th overall at .922%
Last season the Senators were a terrific 2nd overall with .936%. Craig Anderson has not had the same year as he did last season. Last year he had an incredible EVSV% of .942%. In 2013-2014 that figure has dropped to .922%.
Craig Anderson did shutout the Penguins the last time these two teams met in a 5-0 win on December 23rd.
Power Play
Penguins are 1st overall at 24.7%
Senators are 11th overall at 19.7%
The Penguins rank 24th overall with 178 power play opportunities. One reason for the low number of PP opportunities could be the ineffective play of the Penguins bottom 6 forwards.
The Senators are tied for 14th with 188 power play opportunities.
Penalty Kill
Penguins are #1 in the league at 87.6%. The Penguins have been shorthanded the 7th fewest in the NHL at 169 times.
Senators rank 23rd overall at 79.9%. One reason for this low number could be traced to Craig Anderson's incredibly low PK save percentage.
The Senators as mentioned have been shorthanded the 3rd most times in the league. They have found themselves a man down 209 times.
No confirmation on if Eugene Melnyk will be conducting a study to prove the obvious bias the league has against the Senators in regards to penalties called.
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