With the Penguins getting another injury scare with Beau Bennett last night it was another reminder just how thin the Penguins depth at the winger position is with Pascal Dupuis out for the remainder of the year.
Are there options that won’t break the bank? Of course there are, but they don’t come risk free. The reason they will come cheaper is because of the inherent risk.
A good example of one of these risk reward options is Emerson Etem of the Anaheim Ducks. To me he is the forward version of Simon Despres. A guy who is an NHL regular but keeps getting shifted back and forth out of the lineup and out of the NHL. Etem was just recently sent back down to the AHL again.
The Ducks have decent forward depth, the Penguins have decent defense depth. So let’s take a look at Mr. Etem.
Emerson Etem is an offensively gifted forward who has shown the ability to generate offense in both juniors and the AHL.
Much like Ty Rattie of the St. Louis Blues organization I believe Etem is ready to take the next step in his development which is to produce consistent offense at the NHL level.
So what kind of roles has Anaheim put the skilled Etem in so far in his young NHL career?
In these player usage charts I am using relative Quality of Teammate, not the relative Quality of Competition. As you will see, despite Etem being an offensive minded player, he has never been afforded the opportunity to play with Anaheim’s more skilled players.
2012-13
2013-14
And currently in 2014-15
This season Etem has received the lowest quality of teammate of any Anaheim Ducks forward. This is not putting a skilled player in a position to succeed. We saw this last year with Brandon Sutter when he was flanked by Craig Adams and Tanner Glass. Fast forward to this season and with competent linemates Sutter looks like a new player. The same concept applies to Etem.
Now let’s take a look at some of Etem’s underlying numbers and how we got to this point where he has received another demotion to the AHL
Etem’s goals for percentage looks like a pretty fun sledding hill the past three years, but the chart on the right has an even steeper slope and that is the more important one. Etem’s on-ice save percentage has gone from excellent to way below average. This no doubt negatively impacts his goals for percentage. Here’s the catch though,
players have minimal impact on their on-ice save percentages , it is what it is, random.
And this is where front offices and coaches need to be careful. You need to understand when things are random chance and when it is the player who is responsible for the results. This is a case of bad luck for Etem.
So Etem is not playing with other skilled players, his goaltenders aren’t playing well when he is on the ice, and he is not producing points. Perfect storm to “earn” a demotion.
Here is something that is more meaningful
Despite playing with the lowest quality of teammates on Anaheim Etem has been able to continue his positive trend in the possession department. I always like to focus more on the process of how things happen on the ice rather than the end result because over time the process wins out. Emerson Etem’s process is doing fine right now.
Chances are the Ducks see some flaws in Etem’s game and they want him to figure them out in the AHL. The problem with this approach is that I’m sure there are plenty of veterans also with their flaws both big and small, but they are given the benefit of the doubt (see Despres vs Orpik/Scuderi/Murray).
Emerson Etem is the kind of player that falls right in that Brian Dumoulin wheelhouse of trade value. Both guys are NHL ready, just need opportunity.
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I wrote about Quality Starts and the NHL postseason for Hockey Prospectus, you can find that
here
We recorded a new Hockey Hurts podcast the other day that covers the Spezza contract, Leafs/Oilers, Boston/CBJ injuries, and Jakub Voracek. You can find that
here
Thanks for reading!
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