What a matchup we have for the Stanley Cup Final. The Nashville Predators are making their franchise debut on hockey's biggest stage and they have one of the best personalities in the history of the sport to take that stage in PK Subban. Pittsburgh will look to continue building their legacy as one of the best franchises during the salary cap era. Hockey is in a win-win with this matchup. It doesn't matter which team wins it will be good for the sport. Nashville is a wonderful hockey city and has been for a while. A Stanley Cup would look great in the Music City. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin deserve all the success they have. A third Stanley Cup is not needed to justify their contributions to the sport, but it would further supplant them among hockey's greatest players.
So what are we looking at with this series?
It's truly a fascinating series to break down. On Nashville's side of things you have a very underwhelming forward group without Ryan Johansen available, the best defense in the league, and a goalie who is playing above his head when looking at his prior samples. Pittsburgh has one of the best forward groups in the league, a very underwhelming defense, and one of the best young goaltenders in hockey. Let's break this down
Forwards
Pittsburgh has a huge advantage here. This is especially true at the center position. Even if Johansen was healthy the Penguins would have a comfortable advantage in this area. As it stands here is what the Predators forward lines were in Game 6
Keep in mind that Mike Fisher is getting closer to a return, but when your "best" center is Mike Fisher it isn't a great thing. It looks really bad when it is in contrast to Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Nick Bonino hasn't had a great 2016-17. He had a 5v5 points per 60 of 1.43 which was down from 2.01. That still compares favorably to the other Nashville centers when looking at the regular season
That is very underwhelming. That said, a guy like Colton Sissons is performing better in these playoffs then he did in the regular season. The most obvious example was his series clinching hat trick against the Anaheim Ducks. Although, he won't get to shoot on Jonathan Bernier anymore.
Nashville isn't completely void of offensive talent. It's just that it comes from the wings. Filip Forsberg is one of the best wingers in the sport. Viktor Arvidsson is like a faster Patric Hornqvist, and James Neal still has that shot.
Heading into the Stanley Cup Final the Penguins forwards might be the healthiest they have been all playoffs. Patric Hornqvist should be making a return in the near future. Carl Hagelin's foot should have some extra time to get better due to the layoff. Bryan Rust is back after missing some time as well.
Here's what Pittsburgh's forward lineup looked like last game even without Hornqvist
Way better than Nashville.
Here's a snapshot of the playoff leaders in offense
Pittsburgh's best are playing like their best and that poses an issue for whatever team the Penguins face.
Defense
I was harsh on Nashville's forwards, but I'm going to be equally harsh on Pittsburgh's defenders. This is just as big of a lopsided matchup as the forwards were except this time Nashville has the huge advantage.
The top pairing for the Predators is PK Subban and Mattias Ekholm. Don't let anybody tell you otherwise. This is the pairing that went up against Jonathan Toews, Vladimir Tarasenko, and most recently Ryan Getzlaf. Despite the tough competition Subban is controlling the flow of play when he is on the ice. Here is the evidence
I do believe that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are better than those three players, but the point is that they won't be running away with some crazy shot attempt advantage with Subban on the ice. He's an excellent player.
The Predators second pairing is also great with Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis. There is a very sound argument that the Predators top four defensemen are better than any Penguins defender.
Ron Hainsey leads the Penguins defense in ice time. That says a lot about the state of things back there for Pittsburgh. The forwards do a lot of heavy lifting on Pittsburgh.
Getting Justin Schultz back is big for Pittsburgh. He has had a great season and is the closest thing the team has to making up for some of the things that Kris Letang does on the ice. Trevor Daley has been playing some of his best hockey of the year since returning from injury. These things are good for Pittsburgh, but when compared to Nashville's defensemen it is small potatoes.
Goaltending
Pekka Rinne is probably the favorite for the Conn Smythe right now. Given that fact you would think that the Predators have an advantage in goal. I don't think they do. I think at best it is a push between Matt Murray and Pekka Rinne with Murray getting the edge in goal based on the larger overall sample. Matt Murray followed up his Stanley Cup playoff run last year with a very successful regular season. Since coming back from injury he's been a .946 goaltender. It's tough to bet against Matt Murray these days.
This is an area where both teams have been good. This isn't a lopsided matchup like the other two areas.
It will be tough for the Penguins to drive possession given the quality of the Nashville defenders, but with Nashville missing Ryan Johansen and Kevin Fiala their forward grouping is lacking outside of a few players.
Last year in the Stanley Cup Final it boiled down to the Penguins having an advantage at forward while San Jose having one on defense. This year it is the same thing, but even more exaggerated. It should make for some fun hockey. It is a great matchup on paper and I have no doubt it will be exciting to watch it on the ice.
After looking at all the pros and cons I believe that the Penguins forwards have what it takes to make a big enough dent on Nashville's defense. I think the Capitals had a great group of defensemen and a way better group of forwards than Nashville and Pittsburgh still found a way to generate scoring opportunities. Pittsburgh has more dynamic players. I'm going to take Pittsburgh to become the first back to back champions since the 1998 Detroit Red Wings.
It's a battle of gold to see who will take home the silver.
Thanks for reading!
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