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It is Washington's series to lose |
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Well here we are again. The Eastern Conference's best two team will be meeting in the second round of the NHL playoffs by design. The NHL doesn't care when the Penguins and Capitals meet, just that they do.
This year heading into the series there appears to be a role reversal. Last year the Penguins headed into their second round matchup against the Capitals as a slight favorite. This year the opposite is true. Washington is healthy and the Penguins are still missing their number one defenseman, number one goaltender, and a top nine winger.
Kris Letang being out of the lineup didn't cost the Penguins against the Blue Jackets because the Penguins best players are still capable of winning a series on their own against an average team. The Capitals are not average. They are a really good team. One that I selected to win the Stanley Cup this year. It's going to be an all hands on deck kind of series and the Capitals deck is deeper this year.
Carl Hagelin being out of the lineup has put a dent in the Penguins ability to ice three strong scoring lines. Last year you had a Crosby line, a Malkin, line and HBK supplementing offense. Hagelin led the team with six even-strength points, Bonino had five, and Kessel had four against Washington in round 2. Without Hagelin to spread the talent on the forward depth chart the Penguins have been more top heavy. Last year the top heavy approach would not have worked. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin combined for four points in the series. Hagelin is likely to come back this series, but HBK hasn't been good this year and coming back after almost two months off in the playoffs against the league's best team is a tough ask.
The Guentzel-Crosby-Sheary line has a large enough sample to show that they are a really great line. The Rust-Malkin-Kessel line mopped up against the Blue Jackets. The top heavy approach, while risky, did work. However, the lines aren't going to look like that against Washington. Mike Sullivan has removed Conor Sheary from the Crosby line and has reinstated Patric Hornqvist. On the surface I don't like the idea of changing the Penguins best line from this year just because Sheary might not have played great against the Blue Jackets. We have a larger sample to draw from that shows he has had great success. I mean the guy led every NHL player in the ability to generate offensive at even-strength this year. However, after looking into the change in lines it becomes obvious why the move is being made.
Patric Hornqvist isn't a very useful player with Nick Bonino. All the things that Crosby does to facilitate Hornqvist's success (controlled exits, controlled entries, zone time, possession etc...) was not being done by Bonino. Once in the offensive zone Hornqvist can do some damage. The problem is that the Bonino-Hornqvist combo were never in the offensive zone. When together this year they have a shot attempt percentage of only 44.22%. Hornqvist is a complimentary player. He isn't going to compliment anything if he isn't player with certain players. He's a limited player that really excels within his limits. To appease the situation the coach has to break up one of the best lines in hockey. The difference between Hornqvist with Crosby (54.4%) and Sheary (53.3%) isn't a lot. Both players do just fine with Sid. Conor Sheary's skill set lends itself to playing better with a wider variety of players.
Patric Hornqvist needs Sidney Crosby a lot more than Sidney Crosby needs Patric Hornqvist
Matt Murray is not likely to see any game action in this series. I think it is probable he has a groin injury. He has not resumed skating. Groin injuries are tough for hockey players, especially goaltenders. For better or worse this will be Marc-Andre Fleury's net. Whether it is fair to him or not the series is going to ride on his ability to play great. Last year the Capitals were the best team the Penguins faced. They gave Pittsburgh the most trouble. They are better this year and Pittsburgh is worse. Matt Murray was at his best against Washington. His 5v5 save percentage against the Capitals was .945 and his high-danger save percentage was .875. Those numbers are great. Against Columbus Fleury had three good games and two bad games. When combined his numbers were .931 and .758. This year Frederik Andersen was .931 and .821 against the Capitals in round one and it wasn't good enough. You can see the margin for error is not large.
Tactically this series is likely to feature two teams who are going to try and play the same way. Both teams seem to favor a 1-2-2 approach as well as a strong side overload in the defensive zone. Here is a breakdown of the specifics from Jesse Marshall of The Pensblog:
Logically speaking when I look at the Capitals defense grouping and compare it to Pittsburgh's I can't help but think how much better equipped the Capitals are. There isn't going to be a lot of time and space to build up speed through the neutral zone for either team and it is going to take puck skills to thread the needle to create controlled entries. Washington will have Matt Niskanen, John Carlson, and Kevin Shattenkirk on the ice at all times. That is a great luxury to have down the right side. All three of those players are well equipped to make difficult plays with the puck. If the Capitals were to head into the series with Dmitri Orlov, Nate Schmidt and Karl Alzner on the left side with Brooks Orpik in the press box that would be a formidable group of defensemen for the Penguins to solve. Pittsburgh struggled mightily to move the puck out of their own end under control against Columbus. That task will not get any easier against a Washington team who will be way more dangerous in transition when they do force turnovers.
Let's face it the strength of the Penguins is their forward unit and Washington is a team that compares favorably to Pittsburgh on that front as anybody else in the league. So if the forwards are a push and the Capitals have the better defense and the better goalie... A lot of things are going to have to fall into place for Pittsburgh to advance.
I'm not budging from my Capitals prediction. I believe the loss of Kris Letang will be felt a lot more in this series than it was against Columbus. I see the Capitals beating the Penguins and then cruising through whatever team they face in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Thanks for reading!
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