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Fancy Stats and the 2012 Hart Trophy Vote

August 20, 2014, 9:17 AM ET [36 Comments]
Ryan Wilson
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Day five of this exercise takes us to the 2012 Hart Trophy which includes our first encounter with a goaltender. Henrik Lundqvist not only captured the Vezina trophy in 2012 but found himself on the Hart ballot.

Here is how the actual voting went down in 2012:

1. Evgeni Malkin, PIT 1,473 (144-4-1-0-0)
2. Steven Stamkos, T.B. 598 (1-54-24-24-18)
3. Henrik Lundqvist, NYR 556 (3-35-36-28-17)

Sidney Crosby only played 22 games in the 2011-12 season and Evgeni Malkin was left to do a lot of the heavy lifting for the Penguins. Steven Stamkos also loudly announced his arrival this season as a bonafide NHL superstar.

Seeing as though this is a unique year in which we have a goalie I will break down the forwards first and then Lundqvist.

Here are the offensive numbers for Malkin and Stamkos:





Stamkos scored a ridiculous 60 goals in 2011-12 while putting up 97 points. Evgeni Malkin had his first and only 50 goal campaign, which was 10 less than Stamkos, but ran away with the Art Ross Trophy by putting up 109 points.

Here were their roles:





Steven Stamkos received 10% less offensive zone starts than Evgeni Malkin and he also faced less difficult competition. A big reason for this can be traced back to Sidney Crosby's absence in the Penguins lineup. Every single night Malkin was up against the best the opposition had to offer. Both players have nice blue bubbles which means they were each driving possession in respect to their other teammates.

The specific numbers were Malkin at a rel Fenclose percentage of +5.7% and Stamkos at +2.3%.

The raw possession totals:





This is where Malkin pulls away from Stamkos. Despite playing against tougher competition Malkin has a significant edge in Fenclose percentage. Malkin is pushing the 60% barrier while Stamkos is below 50%. As mentioned above Malkin is also producing at a higher clip relative to his teammates.

OK now on to King Henrik.





His numbers are awesome. He is significantly better than league average in both even-strength save percentage as well as overall save percentage. It is very easy to see why he was the Vezina Trophy winner in 2012.

Conclusion

It is tough to sneeze at a 60 goal scorer in this day in age but when you consider the role Malkin played on the Penguins and the amount of points he put up it is tough to ignore. Geno Machino's 50 goals and 109 points were complimented by gaudy possession numbers which dwarfed Stamkos.

Henrik Lundqvist is a worthy finalist for the Hart Trophy but I think that if a goalie is going to win the Hart Trophy they have to hit that .940% mark in even-strength save percentage (or very slightly below). Goalies have their own award so it takes a real special season to overtake guys like Malkin and Stamkos.

Once again, good job voters. Evgeni Malkin was deserving of his runaway Hart Trophy victory.


2008 Hart Trophy is here

2009 Hart Trophy is here

2010 Hart Trophy is here

2011 Hart Trophy is here

Thanks for reading!

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