Now that we have the Eastern Conference Finals set it is time to take a look at how both teams are constructed and what kinds of players each team has. S how do these two teams stack up against one another:
Here is a snap shot of the forwards 5v5 points/60, their 5v5 Score-Adjusted Fenwick, and relative Score-Adjusted Fenwick from the regular season.
The top end scoring for Tampa tops out at exactly 2.00 which is the low end of top line production. They do however have some scoring depth that contributes throughout the lineup. They also have players like Erik Condra who provide minimal offense but are able to stay out of their defensive zone. It surprised me to see just how little offense Valtteri Filppula was able to generate this year.
Pittsburgh has talent that was able to achieve a higher ceiling and they only have one player who is below the 50% barrier on the Score-Adjusted Fenwick measure and that player probably won't see game action in the series.
Both teams can lay claim to a solid forward grouping, but Pittsburgh is the team with some of the higher end talent and are not missing a guy like Steven Stamkos (at least for now). In the absence of Steven Stamkos Nikita Kucherov has taken over as the team's most dangerous goal scorer. Kucherov is tied with Joe Pavelski for the league lead in playoff goals with nine.
Pittsburgh got by with minimal production from Sid and Geno in Round 2. The depth bought them time to get back on the tangible offense train. My guess is that this series will be a little bit more of a track meet than the Washington one and that will benefit both teams and especially players like Crosby and Malkin.
Here are the possession numbers for the defensemen:
There are a lot of good numbers there for the Penguins. They probably have the best defenseman in the series but it isn't by much. Victor Hedman is a top end player and his presence will be felt for the entire series. Tampa probably has the second best defender on the two teams but that player hasn't played in weeks. Anton Stralman is probably going to find his way back into game action at some point this series it is just a matter of when. When he is back it will have a trickle down impact on Tampa's defense corp. which will help the Lightning out so much. Much like how the Penguins were looking to survive until Malkin came back the Lightning were attempting to do the same without Stralman.
Anton Stralman had nine goals in the regular season. In three games against Pittsburgh he had four goals. Pittsburgh is just fine with him potentially being out of the lineup.
Goaltending has been great for both teams. Ben Bishop received a Vezina nomination this year and Matt Murray has been playing at a Vezina caliber level since being handed the starter's job in Pittsburgh.
Ben Bishop has an all situations adjusted save percentage of .928 in 72 games this year (playoffs included. In 22 games Matt Murray is at .930. Really great by both guys. The big difference between the two goalies is Ben Bishop's ability to play the puck. He is terrific at it and as a result that can stymie a lot of forechecks successfully. Controlled zone entries are one way to prevent him from making plays with the puck.
Here are some team based rolling averages. They are 25 game rolling averages and include the playoffs
Score-Adjusted Fenwick
Pittsburgh has had the edge here for some time over Tampa Bay. However, it is fair to point out the absence of Stralman being a huge negative for Tampa's ability in this department.
5v5 save percentage
As mentioned above both teams are getting really solid goaltending.
5v5 shooting percentage
Pittsburgh has come a long way since the beginning of the year when they couldn't buy a goal. Their combination of possession and shooting percentage is why they are considered one of the favorites to win it all this year.
I like both teams. They are both very worthy of the Eastern Conference Finals. I think that the Penguins match up well against all of Tampa Bay's strengths and probably do some of them better. For that reason I am picking Pittsburgh to move on and represent the East for the Stanley Cup.
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Brand new Hockey Hurts Podcast discusses the second round with an eye on the conference finals. You can find that
here
Thanks for reading!
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