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San Jose Sharks Blogger •
The San Jose Sharks are trailing 3-2, and they’ll need another playoff (not incredible, not remarkable) effort to force a Game 7 at HP Pavilion on Wednesday night. Before we look ahead to tonight’s Game 6 between the Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, I think we need to look back. Prior to the series, I identified five key matchups that I thought would determine who came out on top. So far, they explain how we’ve arrived at this point.
1) Evgeni Nabokov vs. Jonas Hiller
There’s no doubt at it, Hiller has been the MVP of the series, turning away 184 of 193 shots. The rookie netminder has a 1.77 goals against average and .953 save percentage, emulating former first-year playoff standouts like Patrick Roy and Cam Ward. He’s been phenomenal. Hiller has come up with a number of jaw-dropping saves, particularly during the Ducks’ dramatic Game 5 loss, but he also hasn’t given the Sharks any cheap goals. Not only has that helped build his confidence, but he’s been able to frustrate the San Jose shooters at the same time.
Nabokov didn’t earn a Vezina Trophy nomination this morning and he didn’t deserve it, not with a 2.44 GAA (14th) and .910 SP (27th). He also hasn’t deserved any praise over the last five games, posting a 2.57 GAA and .894 SP. He might not be the biggest reason the Sharks are trailing 3-2, but he’s allowed several questionable goals due to poor positioning, poor rebound control, and general lack of focus. It doesn’t matter who the teams are, when your goaltender is dramatically outplayed your odds of victory decrease drastically. Edge: Ducks
2) Joe Thornton vs. Anaheim defense
There are times when the Ducks have contained Thornton, and there are times when he’s allowed himself to be contained. However, his performance in Game 5 was outstanding, establishing the blueprint for San Jose’s success moving forward. Now he just has to do it again. And by again, I mean in every single playoff game for the rest of his NHL career. The Sharks are in a perilous position, and there’s no guarantee another bruising, battering Thornton will provide enough to secure a victory tonight, but it certainly can’t hurt.
Of course, you have to give the Ducks’ defense credit for protecting the front of the net, keeping the Sharks to the perimeter, and allowing Hiller to see nearly every shot he’s faced. They’ve put the clamps on the Sharks’ power play and limited second chances, blocking shots and clearing the zone the same way they did during their 2007 Stanley Cup run. Some have said it’s the best defensive corps we’ve ever seen on a eight seed, and it’s hard to argue. Edge: Ducks
3) Milan Michalek vs. Himself
San Jose’s third-highest-paid forward has been overshadowed by the big duo, taking some of the heat off Michalek for his own playoff disappearing act. The speedy Czech winger had only four points (all goals) in 13 playoff games last year, and doesn’t have a point through five playoff games this season. San Jose needs a lot more than that from a guy who spent much of the last two seasons on the top line, and should provide secondary scoring for the club.
Michalek isn’t the only one who’s scoring has fallen off the map. In fact, his entire line has been dreadful during the series. Both Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe deserve some heat for their poor play, and would be getting it if people weren’t so focused on the top line. They finally created some chances in Game 5, but they’ve been woefully ineffective against the Ducks defense, combining for only three points. If the Sharks fail, expect plenty of blame to fall on a second line that combined for 168 points during the regular season. Edge: Ducks
4) Dan Boyle vs. Scott Niedermayer
This is the only matchup that has even been close to a wash, and I’d still give Niedermayer the edge. He’s outscored Boyle 4-3, and has a 3-0 edge in plus-minus, while performing better on the power play and showing better defensive awareness. While Boyle has fallen prey to a few bad turnovers, Niedermayer has been the more steady of the two at both ends of the rink.
Boyle has really seen his stock rise thanks to his vocal leadership, temperament, and an amazing effort in Game 3. There’s no doubt he’s stepped up in the playoffs, further increasing Shark fans’ dislike of red-headed rapscallion Brian Campbell, who bolted for Chicago in the offseason. Niedermayer has won just about every hockey championship, and the value of his experience is immeasurable on the Anaheim blueline. Edge: Ducks
5) Devin Setoguchi vs. Bobby Ryan
I don’t think we’ve seen either player disappear or wear down, but this has been Bobby Ryan’s coming-out party after five games. Some of it has been the national media praising former Ducks GM Brian Burke for his patience with the Ryan, and some of it has been the story of expectations for the forward selected behind Sidney Crosby in the 2005 NHL Draft. However, Ryan has just plain outplayed Setoguchi so far.
Setoguchi hasn’t been player too poorly, but hasn’t been the same factor we saw during the regular season. His physical play has decreased, and he hadn’t recorded a goal before his sharp-angle shot found the twine in Game 5. You can’t knock him for shooting from anywhere, but the second-year winger has been guilty of settling for poor shots rather than creating a better chance for himself. Edge: Ducks
Bottom line, the Sharks have lost each of these five matchups so far, and they can’t expect to win the series if that trend continues. They’ll need to be better in each of these five areas if they hope to win the next two games.
***
Join us for the SharksBuzz Postgame Show, going live win or lose about 15 minutes after the game ends. We'll break it all down for you, and we'll either look ahead to Game 7 or begin the autopsy of the Sharks' season. Give us a ring at (724) 444-7444, talkcast ID# 74909.
ryan.garner@hockeybuzz.com
1) Evgeni Nabokov vs. Jonas Hiller
We've begun to hear rumblings this year about Evgeni Nabokov being a playoff choker. It's somewhat surprising since the Sharks' netminder has played so well in previous seasons, but you have to place some of the blame on him for his inability to elevate the team, despite the team's lack of playoff scoring. Hiller will be making his playoff debut, and you never know how a young player is going to react to the pressure. Some crumble and some carry their teams to Cup glory. If he does falter, it's nice to have J-S Giguere waiting in the wings.
There’s no doubt at it, Hiller has been the MVP of the series, turning away 184 of 193 shots. The rookie netminder has a 1.77 goals against average and .953 save percentage, emulating former first-year playoff standouts like Patrick Roy and Cam Ward. He’s been phenomenal. Hiller has come up with a number of jaw-dropping saves, particularly during the Ducks’ dramatic Game 5 loss, but he also hasn’t given the Sharks any cheap goals. Not only has that helped build his confidence, but he’s been able to frustrate the San Jose shooters at the same time.
Nabokov didn’t earn a Vezina Trophy nomination this morning and he didn’t deserve it, not with a 2.44 GAA (14th) and .910 SP (27th). He also hasn’t deserved any praise over the last five games, posting a 2.57 GAA and .894 SP. He might not be the biggest reason the Sharks are trailing 3-2, but he’s allowed several questionable goals due to poor positioning, poor rebound control, and general lack of focus. It doesn’t matter who the teams are, when your goaltender is dramatically outplayed your odds of victory decrease drastically. Edge: Ducks
2) Joe Thornton vs. Anaheim defense
Will the Ducks contain Thornton? Will he allow himself to be contained? It's been a running theme for the big center throughout his career in the playoffs. When he scores the Sharks have advanced in the playoffs, but when his scoring drops off the team follows his lead and goes cold. Anaheim will surely focus on him, and we'll see if his wingers can pick up the slack and generate offense rather than deferring to the big man in the middle. If this is the year Thornton raises his game to the next level it could be a very short series.
There are times when the Ducks have contained Thornton, and there are times when he’s allowed himself to be contained. However, his performance in Game 5 was outstanding, establishing the blueprint for San Jose’s success moving forward. Now he just has to do it again. And by again, I mean in every single playoff game for the rest of his NHL career. The Sharks are in a perilous position, and there’s no guarantee another bruising, battering Thornton will provide enough to secure a victory tonight, but it certainly can’t hurt.
Of course, you have to give the Ducks’ defense credit for protecting the front of the net, keeping the Sharks to the perimeter, and allowing Hiller to see nearly every shot he’s faced. They’ve put the clamps on the Sharks’ power play and limited second chances, blocking shots and clearing the zone the same way they did during their 2007 Stanley Cup run. Some have said it’s the best defensive corps we’ve ever seen on a eight seed, and it’s hard to argue. Edge: Ducks
3) Milan Michalek vs. Himself
Michalek has been a good player, but he has the potential to be a great player. Nobody on the team has better hands or a harder wrist shot, and while Michalek plays on the second line he needs to perform like a first-line player. Also, it will help if he can avoid those colossal hits he's prone to this time of year, making the highlight reels for all the wrong reasons. San Jose's second line can really have an influence if he goes to the net and Ryane Clowe helps clean up the garbage.
San Jose’s third-highest-paid forward has been overshadowed by the big duo, taking some of the heat off Michalek for his own playoff disappearing act. The speedy Czech winger had only four points (all goals) in 13 playoff games last year, and doesn’t have a point through five playoff games this season. San Jose needs a lot more than that from a guy who spent much of the last two seasons on the top line, and should provide secondary scoring for the club.
Michalek isn’t the only one who’s scoring has fallen off the map. In fact, his entire line has been dreadful during the series. Both Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe deserve some heat for their poor play, and would be getting it if people weren’t so focused on the top line. They finally created some chances in Game 5, but they’ve been woefully ineffective against the Ducks defense, combining for only three points. If the Sharks fail, expect plenty of blame to fall on a second line that combined for 168 points during the regular season. Edge: Ducks
4) Dan Boyle vs. Scott Niedermayer
Both players are a joy to watch, and we'll see which one does a better job of quarterbacking their team from the back end. Boyle's competitiveness will ramp up in the playoffs, giving Shark fans even more reason to loathe Brian Campbell and giving his teammates an example of the determination it takes to win a Stanley Cup. Niedermayer has won it all at every level. If he kicks things up and decides to take over the Sharks will have a hard time controlling the neutral zone.
This is the only matchup that has even been close to a wash, and I’d still give Niedermayer the edge. He’s outscored Boyle 4-3, and has a 3-0 edge in plus-minus, while performing better on the power play and showing better defensive awareness. While Boyle has fallen prey to a few bad turnovers, Niedermayer has been the more steady of the two at both ends of the rink.
Boyle has really seen his stock rise thanks to his vocal leadership, temperament, and an amazing effort in Game 3. There’s no doubt he’s stepped up in the playoffs, further increasing Shark fans’ dislike of red-headed rapscallion Brian Campbell, who bolted for Chicago in the offseason. Niedermayer has won just about every hockey championship, and the value of his experience is immeasurable on the Anaheim blueline. Edge: Ducks
5) Devin Setoguchi vs. Bobby Ryan
I just have the feeling one of these guys is going to disappear during the course of the series, becoming overwhelmed by the speed and intensity of the playoffs and bringing his line down a notch. Ryan has been more consistent this season, while Setoguchi has been streaky in both his effort and production. Who's better suited for the playoff grind? That question could help dictate the outcome of the series, because if lines need to be adjusted to make up for either of them falling off it's going to disrupt the flow and chemistry of the team.
I don’t think we’ve seen either player disappear or wear down, but this has been Bobby Ryan’s coming-out party after five games. Some of it has been the national media praising former Ducks GM Brian Burke for his patience with the Ryan, and some of it has been the story of expectations for the forward selected behind Sidney Crosby in the 2005 NHL Draft. However, Ryan has just plain outplayed Setoguchi so far.
Setoguchi hasn’t been player too poorly, but hasn’t been the same factor we saw during the regular season. His physical play has decreased, and he hadn’t recorded a goal before his sharp-angle shot found the twine in Game 5. You can’t knock him for shooting from anywhere, but the second-year winger has been guilty of settling for poor shots rather than creating a better chance for himself. Edge: Ducks
Bottom line, the Sharks have lost each of these five matchups so far, and they can’t expect to win the series if that trend continues. They’ll need to be better in each of these five areas if they hope to win the next two games.
***
Join us for the SharksBuzz Postgame Show, going live win or lose about 15 minutes after the game ends. We'll break it all down for you, and we'll either look ahead to Game 7 or begin the autopsy of the Sharks' season. Give us a ring at (724) 444-7444, talkcast ID# 74909.
ryan.garner@hockeybuzz.com
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