Guess we all should have expected this, not as early as last summer when the NHL schedule was released revealing that the Avalanche would close out the 2017-18 regular season against St. Louis at the Pepsi Center.

But we might have known a couple of weeks ago, when the Avalanche began to slide with a 7-1 home loss to Los Angeles, that they wouldn’t be able to put enough space between them and the Blues to secure their first playoff appearance in four years before Saturday.

So it has come down to this: defeat the Blues in the season finale to clinch the second wild card in the Western Conference or spend the rest of the offseason wondering what could have been.

The Avalanche have the second wild card at the moment with 93 points and 40 regulation/overtime wins (ROW, the first tiebreaker), while the Blues have 92 points and 40 ROW with a game in hand that will be played Friday night in Chicago.

Best-case scenario for the Avalanche: the Blues lose to the Blackhawks, and the Avalanche win Saturday.

But, adding to the drama, the Avalanche might have to win in regulation, depending on what happens Friday.

If the Blues beat Chicago in regulation or overtime, they would have 41 ROW and would only need one point Saturday to clinch the playoff position because of head-to-head play between the teams. That would force the Avalanche to pull their goalie late in the third period to try for the winning goal and prevent the Blues from gaining a point in overtime.

Yeah, it gets ridiculously complicated.

Here’s why: If the Blues have 94 points and 41 ROW (one more each than the Avalanche) after Friday, Colorado would need a regulation win to reach 95 points and 41 ROW. Otherwise, the Blues would hit 95 with a “loser point” and get the playoff berth based on head-to-head competition.

The Blues have gone 3-1 against the Avalanche, but three games were played in St. Louis. Per the NHL's tiebreaking procedures (if the teams are tied with ROW), the NHL tosses out the first game played in St. Louis (a 4-3 Colorado loss) because of an unequal number of home games between the teams.

An Avalanche win Saturday in overtime or a shootout would even the season series at two wins apiece under this scenario, but the Blues technically would be 2-1-1, good for five points, as opposed to the Avalanche’s 2-2-0 record and four points.

My head is spinning just going through all of this.

Of course, if the Avalanche hadn’t blown a 3-1 third period lead Sunday in Anaheim and left with one point instead of two … or didn't lose all three games of the just-completed California road trip … or didn't go 2-5-1 in the past eight games … or 1-4-1 in the past six …

There’s really no one to blame but themselves.

*****

The Avalanche stayed overnight in San Jose following their 4-2 loss to the Sharks on Thursday and didn’t practice Friday.

Not surprisingly, the Blues will start Carter Hutton in goal against the Blackhawks. He hasn’t started since March 3. They called up Ville Husso from San Antonio (they share the AHL team with the Avalanche) to dress as the backup.

Jake Allen accompanied the team to Chicago but was scheduled to fly to Denver on Friday afternoon to rest for his start against the Avalanche.



Follow @RickS7

Join the Discussion: » 18 Comments » Post New Comment

» One-year deal for Johansson

» One more postseason disappointment

» Bednar cleared to coach tonight; MacKinnon Hart finalist

» Cale Makar a Norris Trophy finalist

» Jost: Do or die Game 5 tonight; Kadri suspension upheld