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Updated 10pm EST: Oilers Capanomics 101 - Should Hemsky be in Play?

April 2, 2013, 9:04 PM ET [95 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Update 10pm EST - As I said on Twitter, I have a trade concept I'd like to pitch to the Oilers and Islanders. Are you reading this, boys? Because if you aren't, you should be.

The Edmonton Oilers send Ales Hemsky, Ryan Whitney and their 1st round pick in 2014 to the Islanders in exchange for Mark Streit and Nino Niederreiter. In Hemsky, the Islanders get a 29 year-old winger who can play in the Top 6. In Whitney, especially if he re-signs, the Islanders get someone who can play Top 4 minutes if he's healthy. And a 1st round pick is a 1st round pick. Hemsky is perhaps (because he's 29 and not 36 like Streit) the most valuable asset in the deal, so the Islanders would "win"...on paper at least.

The Oilers would need to immediately re-sign Mark Streit to a three year deal at about $4mil per season. Niederreiter, who is a $2.795mil cap hit, feels he can play in a Top 9 NHL group right away. He's bring size and grit to an Oilers team who needs it.

Come on, Tambellini...I've made a trade for you. Let's get going!


And now, my blog from before...

By now, everyone is sitting there going "why haven't the Oilers made a major trade deadline move yet?" Relax friends; a real move or two is coming. There's economics involved here.

Mark Streit is the obvious trade target for the Oilers. I'd go so far as to suggest Streit and the Oilers have talked money already. They won't deal for him if his contract isn't extended as part of the process. Streit wants a three-year deal, and I believe at his age and considering what he brings, you're looking at $4mil per season cap hit.

As much as I'd love to add Streit, Ladislav Smid's deal and a few other developments have complicated the financial picture in Edmonton.

2013/2014 Salary Cap Situation (estimated by me)

Forwards(14)
Taylor Hall - $6mil
Jordan Eberle - $6mil
Shawn Horcoff - $5.5mil
Ales Hemsky - $5mil
Sam Gagner - $4mil (estimated)
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - $3.775mil
Nail Yakupov - $3.775mil
Ryan Smyth - $2.25mil
Magnus Paajarvi - $1.5mil (estimated)
Ryan Jones - $1.5mil (estimated)
Teemu Hartikainen -$1mil (estimated)
Lennart Petrell - $900k (estimated)
Anton Lander - $900k
Mike Brown - $740k (rounded up)

Defensemen
Mark Streit - $4mil (est)
Justin Schultz - $3.775mil
Ladislav Smid - $3.5mil
Nick Schultz - $3.5mil
Jeff Petry - $1.75mil
Mark Fistric - $1.6mil
Oscar Klefbom - $1.275mil

Goaltenders
Devan Dubnyk - $3.5mil
Random Backup - $1mil

Total Cap Hit - $66.74Mil


So with this group of players listed above, the Oilers would be more than $2mil over the cap in 2013/2014. Someone would need to go. Ales Hemsky is perhaps the player who does. While the Oilers would have absolutely no cap issues during a playoff run this season, going into next the Oilers need to clear some cap.

Here's my concern: Every team is going to need to clear cap this summer, so the trade market for a guy like Hemsky would be non-existent. So if the Oilers get a decent offer now, should they take it? Maybe Hemsky on Wednesday gets you a quality prospect and a pick, or a decent younger player who has a small cap hit. Come this summer, Hemsky isn't worth a ham and cheese sandwich.

Or the Oilers could just deal Hemsky to the Islanders straight-up for Streit. A deal to help both teams immediately?

What's your thoughts on this and how the Oilers are doing so far with the trade deadline?
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