A few days ago, Kevin Lowe called Ryan Murray the top prospect in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft. Check the article in the Edmonton Journal if you don't believe me.
But why?
Murray really hasn't been at the top of anyone's list all season. One guy has. Nail Yakupov. Yakupov is the clear and obvious 1st choice, and the Oilers hold the 1st overall pick. This is a no brainer, is it not?
You folks should all realize by now that Oilers management doesn't say things by accident. There could be some very specific reasons why Lowe would make such a comment at this time.
1. Maybe Lowe is just being honest. Maybe, for the Oilers at least, Murray is the top prospect, and Lowe is starting now to sell fans on the player.
2. Maybe Lowe is just trying to make the draft more interesting. Last season, we all knew for at least a month ahead of the draft that the Oilers were taking Nuge. In 2010, the Taylor vs Tyler bit was great fun and it generated all sorts of interest and excitement in Edmonton.
3. Maybe by suggesting Murray is the Oilers' boy, Lowe is subtlety advertising that the Oilers are open to dealing the 1st overall pick. Point to your nose, kids, because this is the right answer.
I don't believe the Oilers are all that interested in Yakupov. It's not that he isn't the top prospect going into the draft; he just plays the one position the Oilers don't need more of. If it's draft day, and if the Oilers can't make any deals that clearly help their team, they'll take Yakupov and like it.
Kevin Lowe knows he'd likely be able to draft Murray in a position lower then 1st overall. Should Columbus trade up, they'd certainly take Yakupov with the 1st pick. If Montreal and Edmonton make a deal, there's a fair chance they'd take Yakupov or Galchenyuk. The more I think about what Columbus needs, the more I think they could be in the market for Galchenyuk instead of Murray or Yakupov. The "Russian Factor" doesn't really apply to Galchenyuk, who is American born. He might want to go to an American team like Columbus.
Ryan Murray will be drafted high, but considering how drafting forwards in the Top 5 is often more successful than drafting D men, Murray could still be around by picks 4 or 5. The Adam Larsson pick at #4 last year is a great example of this.
I don't see a Columbus/Edmonton deal happening, because there wouldn't be much in it for Edmonton if Murray is the person they want to draft. The Habs wouldn't offer much in a pick swap with Edmonton, and making that deal does bring a risk factor. If the Oilers are going to deal down, it clearly needs to be a win for the team.
Things could go something like this:
Oilers deal 1st overall pick to the New York Islanders. Ryan Strome comes back to Edmotnon in deal along with the 4th overall pick. Oilers might need to kick in a second asset to make this happen. The Islanders need D...could the Oilers cough up a prospect like Martin Marincin? Marincin is perhaps the prospect the Oilers have that has the biggest potential, but the organization doesn't seem as high on him as they are on Martin Gernat, Oscar Klefbom and David Musil.
If an Oilers/Islanders deal occurs, the draft could look like this:
1st overall - Islanders take Nail Yakupov
2nd - Columbus takes Alex Galchenyuk (need a center more than D)
3rd - Habs take Mikhail Grigorenko (need big center more than D or wingers)
4th - Oilers take Ryan Murray
Teams talk more often than you might think, and they know going into the draft what each other team is going to do. There is no way the Oilers make this sort of deal if they can't get Murray in the 4 spot. They could end up taking Yakupov in 1 just because he's the most valuable asset available. As much as Murray might be the player the Oilers actually want to walk away from the draft with, there are plenty of teams that would deal the Oilers a Murray-level D man plus a second asset for Nail Yakupov.
Strome + Murray...clear win for the Oilers. It might be the only feasible trade scenario that results in a bigger Oiler win than just taking Yakupov 1st overall.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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