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Oilers Three Year Plan + Brad Moran |
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Before I get into today's big blog, a little Oilers signing to tell you about:
On Wednesday the Oilers signed center Brad Moran. Moran, who is 31, has been playing in the Swedish Elite League over the last few seasons. He's 5'11" and 187lbs. Over his professional career, he has played five NHL games scoring one goal and two assists. He has 390 total points playing 477 games in the AHL.
Moran's signing is an interesting acquisition, especially because it occurred few days after the Oilers signed AHL standout Alex Giroux. It appears that the Oilers are doing everything they can to improve their minor league club this season. It's hard to say if Giroux and/or Moran will have a shot at making the big club; much depends on if the Oilers ship out any of their 4th line players.
I got a bit of the grumpy reaction from readers regarding my suggestion that players like Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky and Andrew Cogliano should be moved to bring in one or two young Top 4 defensive prospects. My reason for suggesting we move these players comes from my belief that they likely aren't part of the future plan in Edmonton. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't; I don't know how Oilers GM Steve Tambellini sees things. But perhaps it would make for interesting reading if I explain to you where I see the Oilers going with the roster they currently possess.
Let me preface this by saying I'm talking about prospects here, and no one knows for sure how prospects will turn out. For example, I have Hall factored in as eventually becoming a 40 goal man, but in truth, anything could happen. He could be better, he could be worse, he could have injury trouble that limits his career...you get my point. When I speak about the Oilers and a projected three year plan, I do so assuming that the prospects I mention turn out like it appears they will. There is no way to know exactly what is going to happen, and for that reason, any plans the Oilers braintrust make need to be flexible and adaptable.
Consider this season Year One of the Three-Year Plan. Also, let's only consider the players the Oilers have now, as if no deals or moves will take place for the rest of this summer.
If the Oilers started the season with the players they have now, and considering the potential rookies that could come into the line-up, my belief is the Oilers roster will look like the following:
1. Centers (4): Shawn Horcoff, Sam Gagner, Colin Fraser & Andrew Cogliano
2. Left Wings (4): Dustin Penner, Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi, Gilbert Brule
3. Right Wings (4): Ales Hemsky, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Zack Stortini
4. Alternate fowards (3): Steve MacIntyre, JF Jacques, Ryan Jones
5. Defensemen (7): Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Kurtis Foster, Ladislav Smid, Jason Strudwick, Jim Vandermeer, Taylor Chorney
6. Goaltenders (2): Nikolai Khabibulin, Devan Dubnyk (one of Dubnyk or DesLauriers will be dealt or lost to waivers...my guess is that DesLauriers will be the one who goes).
This first roster model suggests that the Oilers will have four rookies in the line-up this season. I do not believe the point of this season in Edmonton will be to win lots of games or make the playoffs. The point will be to evaluate talent, and to break in the rookies who will in future be the heart of the team. This will be a season of transition, and fans shouldn't over-estimate how the team will do.
Season 2 of Three-year Plan
Oilers forwards Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner will be one season away from becoming UFA's. In respect to the left side, Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi will begin moving into the Top 6 forwards group full-time. On the right side, Jordan Eberle and Linus Omark will begin to take over Top 6 positions. These two factors could mean both Hemsky and Penner will be moved while they still possess trade value.
In respect to new rookies who can come into the Oilers line-up during Year 2, defensemen Jeff Petry and Alex Plante, centers Anton Lander and Chris Vande Velde, and forwards Toni Rajala and Teemu Hartikainen will be close to making the jump. The roster projection for Year 2 could look like this:
Line 1: Hall - Gagner - Eberle
Line 2: Paajarvi - Horcoff - Hemsky*
Line 3: Penner* - Fraser - Omark
Line 3: Brule - Lander - Stortini
Extra forwards: Vande Velde, Cogliano*, Rajala, Hartikainen
Defensive Parings:
Line 1: Whitney - Gilbert
Line 2: Smid - Foster
Line 3: Petry - Plante
Extra defensemen: Chorney and Peckham
Goaltenders: Khabibulin & Dubnyk
Please note the players I have listed with an asterisks are players I feel will be dealt before the season begins.
Season 3 of the Three-Year plan
I mentioned in yesterday's blog the depth of the rookies and young prospects in the Oilers organization. In year three, the future is now for the youth, who will move into key roles in all positions on the franchise.
Forward positions:
Line 1: Taylor Hall - Sam Gagner - Jordan Eberle
Line 2: Magnus Paajarvi - Anton Lander - Linus Omark
Line 3: Gilbert Brule - Tyler Pitlick - Toni Rajala
Line 4: Teemu Hartikainen - Chris Vande Velde - Zack Stortini
Extra forwards: Phillippe Cornet, Shawn Horcoff
Defensive parings
Line 1: Ryan Whitney - Tom Gilbert
Line 2: Jeff Petry - Alex Plante
Line 3: Ladislav Smid - Taylor Chorney
Extra Defenseman: Theo Peckham
Goaltenders: Devan Dubnyk & Olivier Roy
Something very obvious becomes apparent when you study the current Oilers roster: There are far more quality offensive prospects than defensemen. I do believe Jeff Petry will have a solid NHL career, but most often his game is compared to that of Tom Poti, who is a good; not great defenseman. Alex Plante is someone the Oilers felt strongly about when they drafted him, but his development into pro hockey has been somewhat slow. I do not believe Taylor Chorney or Theo Peckham have the goods to be regular NHL players.
In respect to the forward positions, I love the idea of the #2 All Swede Line (Paajarvi, Lander, Omark). Pitlick, who was rated pretty highly going into this year's draft by many of the scouts, was a really amazing pick-up for the Oilers, and he will have a pro career in time. If you study the three-year roster plan, and then consider the roles of Hemsky and Penner, they become the best candidates to be moved in order to find a young defensive prospect or two.
Oh, and in respect to Khabibulin, I feel he could be potentially bought out three seasons from now. Or, his bad back might dictate his retirement plans.
Which brings me back to the Oilers current roster. The Oilers have tremendous depth and talent in respect to youth at forward positions. They do not have nearly the same depth or young developing talent on defense. If the point of the next two seasons is to develop youth more than win hockey games and challenge for the cup, shouldn't assets who do not have long-term futures with the team (ie. Hemsky, Penner and Cogliano) be moved if they can to acquire young defensive prospects? I'll give you an example of what I am saying:
The LA Kings have been battling to acquire Ilya Kovalchuk, but it looks like he'll be going to the New Jersey Devils or the KHL. The Kings are very close to being a top cup contender, and I believe they'd be really interested in acquiring a Dustin Penner or Ales Hemsky. The Kings, who are packed with outstanding young defensive prospects, have a player named Colten Teubert who would look amazing in Edmonton in the future. Could a Hemsky or Penner for Teubert deal make sense for both teams? Absolutely!
If the Oilers were able to bring in two high-ranking defensive prospects to go along with Jeff Petry and Alex Plante, the future defensively would be just as bright as it is for the forwards. With Penner in particular, his value will never be higher than it is right now, after his 32 goal season with two years left on his reasonable contract. As the saying goes, strike while the iron's hot, and bring in all the youth we can find.
Footnote: I can't see the Oilers doing amazing this upcoming season...I don't see them finishing 30th again, but they more likely will finish 30th than finish in the playoffs. History shows teams in the middle of a complete rebuild usually stink for a few seasons before improving.
The NHL Entry Draft in 2011 is considered to be a very weak group, but there are a number of defensemen thought to be top prospects, starting with Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Larsson is considered by many to be the second coming of Nicklas Lidstrom, and and he'd fit in well with the Oilers increasingly Swedish-born squad. Other potential defensive targets for Edmonton at the entry draft include David Musil (son of Edmonton scout Frank Musil), Ryan Murphy and Duncan Siemens.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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