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Weber or Picks? It's about Dollars and Sense |
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Want more of my weird thought process? Follow me on Twitter here: @teddier
The hockey world was set on fire today because the preeminent defense man in the league, one sought after by every sane GM, received the biggest offer sheet in NHL history. Forget 7 years and 49 million for Vanek, this was 100 million and 14 years with 56 million paid out in the first 4 years. It’s an unprecedented move and of course came from the team which has never been afraid to make moves of this sort, the Philadelphia Flyers.
The interesting debates which seemd to flourish on Twitter and across message boards, fans sites and of course media was the compensation along with what Predators GM, David Poile, would do next in his seven day window. The Predators would receive 4 first round draft picks from the Flyers as part of the compensation for ‘signing’ their restricted free agent.
The opinions seem split down the middle on what is the better option for the team, retain Weber for his playing career or take the picks. There is a third option, and that is take the picks and trade them back to the Flyers for other assets- the only type of trade allowed for the next year based on current CBA agreements.
There are many who dismissed the late round draft picks as not as valuable, even in quantity, as the player himself. Evidence would suggest that is not the case so below is a look at the drafts between 1999 and 2009, a ten year span look at picks 21 through 30.
(I apologize about alignment- it's a pain) Games Played, Goals, Assists, Points, PIM
1999
21 Boston Nick Boynton 605 34 110 144 862
22 Philadelphia Maxime Ouellet 12 0 1 1 2
23 Chicago Steve McCarthy 302 17 38 55 168
24 Toronto Luca Cereda
25 Colorado Mikhail Kuleshov 3 0 0 0 0
26 Ottawa Martin Havlat 660 216 323 539 354
27 New Jersey Ari Ahonen
28 NY Islanders Kristian Kudroc 26 2 2 4 38
2000
21 Ottawa Anton Volchenkov 557 18 95 113 367
22 New Jersey David Hale 327 4 25 29 242
23 Vancouver Nathan Smith 26 0 0 0 14
24 Toronto Brad Boyes 558 158 214 372 175
25 Dallas Steve Ott 566 85 135 220 1170
26 Washington Brian Sutherby 460 41 49 90 533
27 Boston Martin Samuelsson 14 0 1 1 2
28 Philadelphia Justin Williams 707 179 286 465 475
29 Detroit Niklas Kronwall 467 49 168 217 298
30 St. Louis Jeff Taffe 180 21 25 46 40
2001
21 Pittsburgh Colby Armstrong 439 87 117 204 364
22 Buffalo Jiri Novotny 189 20 31 51 66
23 Ottawa Tim Gleason 557 15 103 118 541
24 Florida Lukas Krajicek 328 11 61 72 245
25 Montreal Alex Perezhogin 128 15 19 34 86
26 Dallas Jason Bacashihua 38 0 1 1 2
27 Philadelphia Jeff Woywitka 278 9 46 55 149
28 New Jersey Adrian Foster
29 Chicago Adam Munro 17 0 1 1 2
30 Los Angeles Dave Steckel 385 32 40 72 125
2002
21 Chicago Anton Babchuk 282 36 70 106 108
22 NY Islanders Sean Bergenheim 388 71 61 132 299
23 Phoenix Ben Eager 386 42 40 82 848
24 Toronto Alexander Steen 497 115 161 276 214
25 Carolina Cam Ward 414 1 9 10 18
26 Dallas Martin Vagner
27 San Jose Mike Morris
28 Colorado Jonas Johansson 1 0 0 0 2
29 Boston Hannu Toivonen 61 0 0 0 10
30 Atlanta Jim Slater 449 60 61 121 322
2003
21 Boston Mark Stuart 386 17 38 55 406
22 Edmonton Marc-Antoine Pouliot 192 21 36 57 76
23 Vancouver Ryan Kesler 561 153 184 337 501
24 Philadelphia Mike Richards 527 151 242 393 468
25 Florida Anthony Stewart 262 27 44 71 123
26 Los Angeles Brian Boyle 271 44 33 77 226
27 Los Angeles Jeff Tambellini 242 27 36 63 88
28 Anaheim Corey Perry 530 205 224 429 664
29 Ottawa Patrick Eaves 380 70 63 133 141
30 St. Louis Shawn Belle 20 0 1 1 2
2004
21 Colorado Wojtek Wolski 424 95 163 258 107
22 San Jose Lukas Kaspar 16 2 2 4 8
23 Ottawa Andrej Meszaros 522 49 151 200 379
24 Calgary Kris Chucko 2 0 0 0 2
25 Edmonton Rob Schremp 114 20 34 54 26
26 Vancouver Cory Schneider 68 0 5 5 0
27 Washington Jeff Schultz 373 11 61 72 121
28 Dallas Mark Fistric 257 3 20 23 220
29 Washington Mike Green 398 82 169 251 298
30 Tampa Bay Andy Rogers
2005
21 Toronto Tuukka Rask 102 0 3 3 6
22 Boston Matt Lashoff 74 1 15 16 59
23 New Jersey Nicklas Bergfors 173 35 48 83 20
24 St. Louis T.J. Oshie 262 63 112 175 131
25 Edmonton Andrew Cogliano 410 70 102 172 152
26 Calgary Matt Pelech 5 0 3 3 9
27 Washington Joe Finley 5 0 0 0 12
28 Dallas Matt Niskanen 370 21 86 107 203
29 Philadelphia Steve Downie 272 55 82 137 654
30 Tampa Bay Vladimir Mihalik 15 0 3 3 8
2006
21 NY Rangers Bob Sanguinetti 8 0 0 0 4
22 Philadelphia Claude Giroux 285 78 165 243 113
23 Washington Semyon Varlamov 112 0 2 2 6
24 Buffalo Dennis Persson
25 St. Louis Patrik Berglund 310 75 88 163 88
26 Calgary Leland Irving 7 0 0 0 0
27 Dallas Ivan Vishnevskiy 5 0 2 2 2
28 Ottawa Nick Foligno 351 61 87 148 299
29 Phoenix Chris Summers 23 0 3 3 15
30 New Jersey Matt Corrente 34 0 6 6 68
2007
21 Edmonton Riley Nash 5 0 1 1 2
22 Montreal Max Pacioretty 202 53 61 114 142
23 Nashville Jonathon Blum 56 6 9 15 14
24 Calgary Mikael Backlund 138 15 31 46 40
25 Vancouver Patrick White
26 St. Louis David Perron 292 74 99 173 188
27 Detroit Brendan Smith 14 1 6 7 13
28 San Jose Nick Petrecki
29 Ottawa Jim O'Brien 34 3 3 6 6
30 Phoenix Nick Ross
2008
21 Washington Anton Gustafsson
22 Edmonton Jordan Eberle 147 52 67 119 32
23 Minnesota Tyler Cuma 1 0 0 0 2
24 New Jersey Mattias Tedenby 101 9 19 28 30
25 Calgary Greg Nemisz 15 0 1 1 0
26 Buffalo Tyler Ennis 140 38 54 92 50
27 Washington John Carlson 186 17 58 75 74
28 Phoenix Viktor Tikhonov 61 8 8 16 20
29 Atlanta Daultan Leveille
30 Detroit Thomas McCollum 1 0 0 0 0
2009
21 Columbus John Moore 69 2 5 7 8
22 Vancouver Jordan Schroeder
23 Calgary Tim Erixon 18 0 2 2 8
24 Washington Marcus Johansson 149 27 46 73 18
25 Boston Jordan Caron 71 10 12 22 20
26 Anaheim Kyle Palmieri 28 5 3 8 6
27 Carolina Philippe Paradis
28 Chicago Dylan Olsen 28 0 1 1 6
29 Tampa Bay Carter Ashton 15 0 0 0 13
30 Pittsburgh Simon Despres 18 1 3 4 10
There is a fair bit to look at, and what you will see are some amazing picks late in round one and some absolutely dreadful ones in this ten-year span. The bigger issue is one of value, and can any be found in late first round picks comparison to signing a player to a contract you did not even negotiate or create?
When looking at each group I tried to look at games played and points as weighted options and gave position consideration only in the case of goalies. I also looked at number of games as a decreased variable of consideration as draft years became closer to the current year. For instance in the 1999 draft year I used 300 games played as a mimum for consideration.
After that I scaled it down to 100 games played as a requirment in the 2009 draft year. What I was determining was how many players drafted in the last 10 picks (8 in 1999) of the draft could be considered successful NHL players, desirable to more than the team who drafted him. The purpose being to measure if a team can find value in the later rounds should they receive draft picks as compensation in a RFA offer sheet and those draft picks are late first round picks.
In six of 10 seasons I found the bottom picks to deliver solid NHL players 50% of the time. However, the closer the draft year is to the current year there is less time for a player to develop and meet a minimum games-played target. Subesquently after 2005 there is a noticeable slide. However of 108 picks in eleven draft years 51 could be considered, by my unscientific measurements, to be quality NHL players. Consider the last three years only held to a 30% rate this may change in future years as players develop.
47% of all picks between 1999-2009 taken between 21-30 in the first round turned into serviceable NHL players. That’s hardly meaningless when saying those picks are far from certain.
Looking at the players taken I ranked them into two categories: superior or average in terms of there career value. Within that group of 51 players 78% of them were ranked is superior players in comparison to the entire group. This is based on my opinion and some simple stats based on games played, year drafted, and points-hardly conclusive but interesting.
If you were a GM and an offer came to you that you could choose a player four times in consecutive years in addition to your regular picks, and the pick position you were likely to have had a 47% success rate of serviceable NHL players would you consider it? Now the same offer reveals in that group of players 78% of the time they are going to have a superior career compared to the average NHL player. Your ears are listening a little more closely now but you tell the person making the offer you have to think about it.
As the GM your job is not just about finding players and making a team it’s about managing dollars and cents in many aspects of the team and business. If the alternative is to pay 50 million in the next 4 years or take the picks do you look at those extra picks a bit harder? I sure do because knowing I have 8 picks in the next 4 years I could do increasingly more advanced scouting and subsequent player development for a lot less than 50 million along with the 14 year comittment that comes with that money.
This deal with Shea Weber is about a lot of money, a lot of time, and vast resources for one team to give up and another to harvest. With Nashville’s track record at the draft combined with the proper allocation of saved 'contract money' to scouting and development it still comes down to dollars and cents but a different kind... common sense. If David Poile and the ownership have any they will see what a great opportunity this is if they look at the situation properly and use the strengths of their organization wisely.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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