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Jets vs Canucks

October 12, 2017, 11:38 AM ET [19 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
No conspiracy theories here but it would seem fair that most fans and pundits would think there's something fishy going on with Dustin Byfuglien and his injury.



To be fair to the big guy he has gone sturgeon fishing before as part of friend and former teammate Andrew Ladd's charity fishing derby held on the Fraser River up towards Hope BC. How he can do that, wrestle a 300lb plus fish to shore, whilst recovering from a small injury and not play hockey is curious but in Maurice there's trust right?

The bigger point for the Jets right now is that the sense of urgency for a win is over after two disastrous games to start the season. They face the Canucks tonight who in theory should be beatable team but ask the Oilers about that challenge.

If you think roster decisions in Winnipeg get outcry try entering the hellfire of Canucks social media. While Jets fans argue and discuss the merits of third and 4th line dynamics in the Canucks world there are daggers being thrown all over the place. As the team transition from the Sedins to a new on-ice production leadership there has been some bumps.

New coach Travis Green has not been shy about trying to change things although some things will be all too familiar to Jets fans as former Jet, now Canuck Alexander Burmistrov is a healthy scratch tonight. Jake Virtanen, remember him, the hometown boy taken a few picks ahead of the 6 million dollar man Nik Ehlers, is still unsure of where he fits in the roster. Big UFA signing from a few years ago Loui Eriksson is now a 6 million dollar third liner- and people complain about Lowry.

The issue as it pertains to the Jets and how they play the game is still a developing story, or process. While one win against the Oilers feels good the underlying challenges still exist and it will be a much longer time before many fans trust this team.

One of the interesting aspects to watch tonight will be the shots against Winnipeg. There were some trends, and not pretty ones, against Toronto and Calgary and then an interesting change in Edmonton. See below. (all graphics thanks to Natural Stat trick)

Toronto

Toronto

Look at this heat map and see where the Leafs logo is. See how close that blue spot is to the net? That's where the Leafs had so many shots and chances at 5v5.

Calgary

Calgary

Here we see the same thing but a bit spread out more and one goal from the point much like the one from the side vs Toronto. However, again the heat mark is right in front of the crease where that high danger zone is.

Edmonton

Edmonton

The heat mark here for shot volume and goals now extends out into the slot between the hash marks and then in a sort of umbrella fashion above and around the circles.

One thing Connor Hellebuyck remarked on after the game is that his team made it easy for him to see shots. This heat map would suggest that his observation is founded in where those shots came from. They were further out, and they seemed to come from a much more direct area to the centre of the ice and out from above.

If Hellebuyck is the starter tonight will the same strategy be employed? The Canucks are not in possession of a Connor McDavid or a Leon Draisaitl but they have Horvat and the always dangerous Sedins. In this situation is the tactic to address the opposition or support the goalie?

It should be for both reasons as until the Jets address there coverage system on defence the simplest and smartest thing they could do is try to control where the shots come from as opposed to worrying about volume. The interesting thing to remember about volume is you can control it by increasing your own volume at the other end of the ice.

Looking at the big picture for the Jets through the first four games of the season given the opposition what is a reasonable record? 2-2 seems fair and remember the mighty Oilers sit with the exact same record as the Jets do now.

The opportunity is there for the Jets but look back to the previous five years and the Jets have gone like this over the first 4 games:

2-2
3-1
1-3
2-2
2-1-1

It's the next six games that seem far more important for that first 10 game measurement. Here's what's happened in the past for the same time frame.

4-6
6-3-1
4-5-1
4-5-1
4-5-1

However best ten game start the team has ever had ended up with them picking second overall in the draft. So maybe there not much to worrying about this early in the season as long as the team is improving it's faults. Let's see if that continues in Vancouver tonight.
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