Jets at the Trade Deadline: Risk Management
With the day and deadline looming on Wednesday it’s time to take a good hard look at how the Jets could manage the day and the kind of deals they want, or should make.
The first key aspect of the trade deadline is the upcoming expansion draft will affect the process for all GMs in the league. They will likely take a cautious approach based on who they might protect and the contracts they want to expose. To say ‘it’s complicated’ would be a mild understatement.
Let’s review the expansion draft rules.
* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:
a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender
b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender
All players who have currently effective and continuing "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).
All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).
And then there are these conditions
* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:
i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.
iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.
How do these rules affect the Winnipeg Jets?
I could list it all out or you could play with this
great tool from Capfriendly.com and see how it fits. Relax Jets fans, Ehlers, Laine, Petan and Morrissey are all safe as are Lemieux, Roslovic, and Connor.
Where things get ugly is that Enstrom and Byfuglien eat up two spots with their NMCs and unless either are asked to waive them they take up two spots for protected players.
Consider that puck moving D-men are a huge want for the playoffs or any time, would you want Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff to ask Enstrom if he wanted to be traded to a contender? The upside is by trading him you remove a spot from the protected list and could move to the 7 forwards and 3 defence model.
Byfuglien, Trouba and Myers are protected now you can protect 7 forwards. I suspect Marko Dano does not see time up in the big leagues this season as he has 8 games remaining to be eligible for the expansion draft. However this is a moving target because if he’s ready he has to be activated and that would require more shuffling but that is moving Pavelec down which is not a big deal.
The point being is that there are ways to manage this but if the Jets are not careful they risk exposing any of Lowry, Copp, Armia, Perreault, Dano or Matthias. It’s not easy.
So back to the trade deadline. The Jets have assets to move such as Stafford, Matthias, Perreault, Thorburn, and perhaps even some one like a Petan or Copp. Before you call me crazy, consider the plight of the Jets defence, after Morrissey the next hope is that Tucker Poolman signs a professional deal and joins the team. The defence prospect pool is a barren wasteland of talent, at least talent that projects to the NHL level. Now imagine that talent without Enstrom.
While it’s easy to see the Jets as sellers, as they should/could be buyers too and that’s simply because of their forward depth. Would Andrew Copp fetch something on the market? I think so but he also might fetch a defence prospect too, especially from a team who is heavy in that area. That’s one example of thinking but now consider moving Petan who is safe from the expansion draft, he has more value perhaps and potentially a better return. The same could be said for Tanev or even Brendan Lemieux.
The point the Jets could be buying but not for the immediate future, and they probably should be given the state of their defence pool of talent.
Other creative ideas are sure to be considered and they should be. The Jets can afford to lose a player in the expansion draft and it will not dramatically hurt them but what they cannot afford to do is lose players for nothing by not trading them and receiving no return in any form.
While the cliches of dominoes is used far too frequently with the trade deadline it is almost the only metaphor suitable this year. Unlike past trade deadline the risk tolerance for GMs is going to be very interesting to watch. Are some prepared to have multiple good options available for the expansion if it gets them closer to the Stanley Cup finals? The goal is likely to be by the time of the draft the players you want to protect are covered and the ones you want taken get taken. That’s not an easy task.
I’m not expecting a very interesting deadline. Standard moves with lower picks traded for depth scoring wingers and defence depth but that could all change for the GM willing to take on a bit of risk.
As risk pertains to the Jets do you risk losing one of the good young forwards for free in the expansion draft or do you take a shot a getting something to compliment your needs that may come to fruition a bit later. While we see lists of scouts attending various NHL games appearing on Twitter would it be better to see lists at AHL games? That might be where the more interesting yet unexciting action comes, trading for the future without taking too much risk.
Remember it’s silly season. Anything can be said, surmised and proposed. Take it for what it is, one of the best things about hockey that keeps us interested away from the games.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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