The Winnipeg Jets gambled with their defence in terms of the roster. Gone are Mark Stuart to a buyout and not even a demotion to the AHL. Stuart, in eyes of the team, was a foundation player for them 4 years ago when he signed his extension at the trade deadline in 2013. A mentor to younger players and some one the coaches could depend on knowing that his heart and grit would always be there.
Stuart did a dirty job and was not always pretty, or effective but the headache that his role caused for many fans is now gone and in comes Kulikov. Also gone is Paul Postma the right handed defender who statistically impresses but seemed to have a difficult time earning the ice time to be used to his most effectiveness. Now the Jets have perhaps their most diverse set of defensemen and yet there is still an uneasiness amongst the fans and questions from the usual media and bloggers.
What some want to know, and this is an entirely fair question, was it the coach or roster that helped make the Jets a defensively sound team in 2014-15? That question is relevant as the Jets roster now is arguably much-imporved heading into this season 3 years later.
Looking at the defense what does one expect to see in terms of combinations and assignments?
In no particular order here is what the Jets have to work with this year:
Trouba RHD
Byfuglien RHD
Enstrom LHD
Myers RHD
Kulikov LHD
Chiarot LHD
Morrissey LHD
Melchiori LHD
Nogier RHD
The likely starting six players would be as follows:
Trouba
Morrissey
Enstrom
Byfuglien
Myers
Kulikov
With Chiarot Melchiori and Nogier battling for filling in due to injury. As it stands now Tyler Myers is still listed as being on injured reserve and his health, albeit apparently fine by the end of the season remains a question mark. Should Myers not be ready to go it seems likely that one of Chiarot or Melchiori will step in and perhaps Nogier depending on his training camp performance.
Last year's top pairing was Morrissey Byfuglien. Is this a tandem worth keeping together or should the reigns be handed off to a younger player in Trouba? Without the contract holdout this year which limited Trouba to only 60 games played should he take what many assume is his rightful place on the top pairing from the start of the season?
Morrissey Trouba
Last year these two played a combined 2600+ mins at even strength compiling 11 goals and 36 assists between them. If this was the starting pair, it would make sense that a familiar tandem from years past be reunited as the second pair.
Enstrom Byfuglien
Enstrom was again limited in action to 60 games with injuries while Buff was his durable self mentoring Morrissey. Enstrom and Buff combined with almost 2800 minutes of even strength ice time and with 12 goals and 31 assists. They were not regular line mates last season so how those numbers translate should they be paired together again is a bit of a guess.
Kulikov Myers
This pairing is an even bigger guess as one player was not with the team at all and Myers missed most of last season for both injury and personal reasons. At best this is a guess pairing based on contract and possible roles considering the others. Byfuglien led all players in ice-time last year and it would make sense to think Maurice wants to manage that better and will given he has a relatively healthy roster.
Power Play
Last year the Jets had a whopping 4 goals from the defence on the power play and only 18 total assists. Given the struggles the PP unit has had for a few seasons this is understandable but there is too much talent up front to not have the defense adding to their own point production totals.
Byfuglien had 2.5X the amount of PP ice time as the next most used defender Trouba. 248 mins vs 98 mins. Given the look of the defence and that special teams is one of the areas that the Jets need to improve would it make sense to think that Trouba and Buff are the top pairing for the first unit with Morrissey and Enstrom/Myers being number two? Again with the changes from last year coming, head coach Paul Maurice has some analysis and decisions to make. With Laine some times being on the point the dynamic changes again.
Penalty Kill
The top four used players on the Jets penalty kill were Buff (187mins) Trouba (179mins) Enstrom(179 mins) and Chiarot(115 mins). Surely dropping Byfuglien down on the depth chart for the PK would make some sense if there are no injury issues. What is interesting is that Morrissey in his rookie year seemed to be sheltered from the PK with only 71 minutes. Is it time to push him up the depth chart and what about Kulikov? Last year in Buffalo he saw his minutes cut more than half from his previous two years in Florida but that might have been due to injury and not usage. It's probably say to assume that the Jets want him to should more PK load than the departing players.
It would seem reasonable to think that Trouba will lead the minutes Kulikov and others following but like most things with this group there seems to be some guessing in regards to what Maurice and the other coaches will do.
While the title of this blog is Jets Defense Predictions it's rather difficult to prediction anything with this group due to the unknowns of Myers' health and Kulikov's role. Combine that with increased minutes for Trouba and Morrissey there are more than a few things to consider when trying to be close to accurate on predictions.
What is apparent is that this group is in a state of change, or at least should be as two key players from years past (Enstrom and Buff) age and perhaps see usage change. With two studs in Trouba and Morrissey the torch at the top should begin a transition but it might take more time given the way Maurice works.
There is probably a desired outcome for most fans in terms of usage and roles for the Jets defense but predicting it is much more difficult. The player's play will make a case for many things to happen but the tactics of the coaches needs to be considered too. With 5 players who can all play top 4 minutes and of those 5, as many as three would argue they could and should do top pairing duty, this is no easy task. Predict nothing other than a lot of experiments and change and perhaps that's the way it should be and fans will be asked to be patient...again.
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