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It's set- Winnipeg vs Nashville

April 23, 2018, 8:51 AM ET [40 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Series is set, Winnipeg vs Nashville


In some weird, funny way of the universe it makes sense that Winnipeg and Nashville would meet in the playoffs. The two franchises and cities have no reason to be linked in any meaningful or significant way but they have come together to do battle. Yet upon closer examination these two cities, and their respective NHL franchises, are very closely aligned but not because they are playing for the same goal.


Neither team has won a Stanley Cup, although Nashville came close last year. Both teams play in two of the leagues smallest markets yet have some of the best fan environments. Both sets of fans love their chants and taunts. When the Jets were reborn they followed the Nashville model of ‘draft and develop’. Both franchises are intensely loyal their fans and their staff, particularly management. Both franchises have some sort of ownership group or partnership. They both play in two of the smallest arenas in the league.

They finished 1-2 in the league standings separated by three points. Those standings could easily have been switched had the Jets, the day after Paul Stastny was acquired, won the game. They had two, two-goal leads in the game before giving up three straight in the third period as well. Had that not happened and the Jets escaped with a clean 2 point win they would have 116 points and the Predators 115.

To say there are some underlying stories, and perhaps issues is severe understatement. As the teams and fans wait for the second round schedule to come out there’s more than enough recent history to believe that the hype will be realized.

The Jets though are banged up. In their 5-0 blanking of the Wild on Friday night Joel Armia was taken from the game and there have been no status updates on him. That leaves the infirmary looking like this:

Enstrom- who skated today for the first time in weeks with a full contact jersey
Perreault- UBI day to day
Armia- UBI day to day
Kulikov- LTI recuperating on back
Mason- undisclosed
Ehlers- ‘malaise’ and should be returning

The biggest loss for the Jets are the two players on defense in Enstrom and Kulikov but with Enstrom being near to return, the severity of the amount of injuries is reduced. Ehlers will be back and likely will Perreault but no time line given for the latter and the same with Armia.

If the Leafs can extend the series to seven games and perhaps Washington too the Jets and Wild could start as soon as Thursday in Nashville. The longer the better for the infirmary some would say. Even though a layoff of nearly a week can kill momentum for a team, neither should have a problem picking up the intensity as soon as the puck is dropped given the stakes of this series.

At first blush the obvious favorites might be the Predators, returning Stanley Cup finalists, built to win now by their only GM David Poile and totally committed to the cause. However when looking at the underlying numbers from the five games the teams played, does different picture emerge.

At 5 vs 5 play…

The Jets held the raw possession edge in CF 53.37% to 46.63%
The Jets held the shots for percentage too 52.92% to 47.08%

The Preds outscored the Jets 13-11
The Jets had the scoring chance edge at 53.51% or 122-106

The Preds led the High Danger SC at 48-46 for 51.06%
The Preds led the High Danger GF at 6-4 for 60%

The Preds shot 10.08% had an on-ice save % of .924 and a PDO of 102.5
The Jets shot 7.59% had an on-ice save % of .899 and a PDO of 97.5

An interesting point about the Predators and shooting percentage is that only 5 teams shot better than the approximate league average of 8% against them. All were from the Eastern Conference except the Sharks who shot 11.54% in three games. Only the Wild were better than the Jets at 7.89%.

What stands out here is that both of these teams can do many things well when looking at factors which drive play and ultimately wins. When it comes to the specifics of how each team drives play, that can be broken down later. When looking at their season history the Jets managed just 1 win in Nashville 6-4 and 1 SO win at home in the 5 games the other three games they lost by a aggregate score of 14-9. In all five games they spread was 22-19 for the Predators and just like this upcoming series the Preds had the home ice advantage in the season series.

But all that is different now right? The tough loss on February 25th is gone, so is the dreadful 3-1 loss on March 13th when the Preds scored two shorthanded goals on the same penalty kill. That's what fans want to believe and that’s what the players have to believe. Given the similarity of how these team are built, the way the two franchises have modeled their growth, and how the teams finished the season, putting past demons out of mind seems the only thing the Jets(more so than the Preds) have to do push their fortunes further. Oh they have to win 4 games before Nashville does, no small task.

What the fan has to wonder when looking at how the teams arrived at this point is this: were the Wild as bad as they played in the post season and were the Avalanche as good as they played?

It’s an interesting question because I don’t know if the Wild were bad, and while the Avalanche won one more game than the WIld in the first round, did they do it through some luck or being better?

What does present a bit of a picture so far in the post season is this:

The Jets lead the league in CF/60 and CA/60

The Preds were 3rd in CF/60 and 4th in CA/60

That’s one pace of play measurement and these teams simply could go at each other with a fury we have not seen in the second round in some time. Want to take some luck variables into it?

The Jets PDO this post season is 102.1 the Preds are 101.4 a difference of .7!!! The Jets are making it with save % while the Preds are doing by shooting %. Perhaps this series is decided on which one slides from their strength or which one keeps getting stronger. Flip a coin, spin a bottle, pull something out a hat, or whatever else you do when all that matters is a wild-ass guess.

Jets in six or maybe seven.

Screw it- these teams are so tight the amount of time on ice they play this series will feel like a best of nine. Good luck to whoever survives after.
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