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Chevy's Analytics- Fallout from the Weekend

April 21, 2014, 1:17 PM ET [6 Comments]
Peter Tessier
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • RSSArchiveCONTACT
It’s been a big few days for Winnipeg Jets fans despite the team not being in the post season. Yes the hockey is salivating good and the fans of those teams look to be having the time of their lives unless you are from Tampa, LA or Chicago. However in Winnipeg, and on Saturday to a large degree outside of Winnipeg, the hockey world focused on the Jets, or more specifically GM Kevin Cheveldayoff.

Today it ramps up again with Claude Noel coming out of hiding/returning from Arizona and making a somewhat public address. The Winnipeg Free Press seemed to have found the scoop again after Ed Tait dropped this doozey of an article Saturday about The Art of Hockey Analytics.

Boom goes the dynamite.

Let’s go back to the chronological order of the pieces and start with the analytics piece. By now readers of this space should know my position on them. Analytics work, they are important, they are another tool in the proverbial ‘toolbox’, and I believe them to be a valid and necessary discussion point when talking the game of hockey. I don’t always include them but I keep abreast of them on a daily basis and I think that’s all anyone has to do, except Kevin Cheveldayoff of course.

This is where I tuned in on Saturday as I fired up Twitter and saw the outrage, questioning and mocking of the Jets GM after the analytics community got a hold of the piece and began to digest and regurgitate select parts. There’s a bit of irony in this as some commenting took certain bits and pieces to challenge yet they come from a group hell bent on dealing with appropriate ‘sample size’.

The issue as I see it has to do with how the Jets GM is portrayed to use analytics (or not) in his approach to the roster development and management. It is this passage that really started the explosion on Twitter and it’s a worthwhile starting point:

"What the numbers don’t tell you is who Mark Stuart is matched up against or playing with or is he with the first line or third line?" said Cheveldayoff. "What are the other teams matching up against you? Are they hard matching, are they checking a certain line hard? There’s an art to how each coach approaches a game in those respects and so a guy like Mark Stuart... he’s not the most prolific puck mover or distributor, but Corsi and Fenwick don’t talk about the hits he has every night or the blocked shots.


The problem for those interested in fancy stats is simple: that information exists. In fact it’s free and anyone of us can make use of it. More importantly what it tells us is that perhaps Chevy isn’t up to speed on what’s available or he’s playing possum. He certainly was not tipping his hand to any specifics on the Jets’ analytic data usage but for those who understand the process in great depth, the comments were telling to them.

I have no axe to grind with the Jets or any member of their organization, nor do I have one with Ed or the Free Press. Ed’s piece is marvelous and opens the door into a world that for some is commonplace, and others a foreign mish-mash of something they believed they could forget after high school or university. It would be foolish to draw comprehensive conclusions about the Jets from it but it might be worth understanding why there was a reaction.

The sheer volume of information that is available has had what some might call- unexpected consequences. Back in 2007 did the NHL think some one would right a script to pull the event information from each game and compile it? Probably not but the horses are out of the barn and they’ve gone so far away it’s not worth trying to corral them back. The other aspect is for the fans, at least a dedicated group that seems to be rapidly growing, who now are more knowledgeable and aware of players and teams than ever before. They no longer have to depend on the box scores in the next day’s paper to see who did what.

The other side to this reality is that they want and demand better information, like that produced by Tait on Saturday. However they want it all the time within all forms of media, at least as talking points if not longer more comprehensive efforts. It’s something teams, their management and coach’s need to be aware of and capable of addressing. The public’s ability to refute a quote they see as in accurate is at an all-time hig. Unfortuantely that is exactly what happened to Cheveledayoff’s quotes on Saturday as Tait’s story made the rounds.

This is no one’s fault but should serve as a reminder that the bar is raised for everyone. GM’s have to answer tougher, more meaningful questions and media, who are privileged enough to have access, are facing increasing pressure to ask those kinds of questions. It’s about preparedness and accountability and we’re now deep within an era where, because of information, sports franchises have to be better prepared.

The upside is that by being prepared to answer questions the teams should also be better prepared for performance, at least in theory. The data is there for everyone, and when the questions are asked, or not, the resulting quotes are what is used as the most telling indicator of preparedness and awareness. It would be foolish to make any conclusive determination based on what they as an organization have talked about with data, as the Jets may know more than they are revealing. However, if the actions and results fail to progress the team towards the desired goal(s) can conclusions be drawn then?

Once again it may be a foolish assumption to make but at some point you have to decide if what you know makes your right or wrong. As of Saturday there’s enough people who are using data and their eyes to make some strong conclusions about Cheveldayoff being right or wrong. Guess which way they are leaning?


As for the Noel interview, that will be covered next time. If you didn’t give it a read please do it’s great stuff.
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