Time to look at the last series to get started… Anaheim / Nashville.
Nashville won the season series against the Ducks 2-1-0, routing them 5-1 on the strength of a three goal second period and a strong performance from Pekka Rinne on October 22 at Bridgestone Arena. Game two was in Anaheim as the calendar turned to November and the Ducks snapped a five game losing streak by taking advantage of a strong performance from Chris Stewart and a 40 save effort from Frederik Andersen. The third and final game was Nov. 17 in Smashville with the Predators winning 3-2 on another stellar performance from Pekka Rinne, making 38 saves in the victory.
OK… now take the season series and throw it out the window… these are two different teams right now. Since the season series ended back in November, the Ducks have added David Perron, Brandon Pirri and Jamie McGinn, significantly altering their lineup, the Predators of course added Ryan Johansen in a blockbuster that sent Seth Jones to Columbus and put Nashville's centers aligned in their correct roles.
Offensively, the Ducks have firepower but only three teams in the playoffs have scored less goals in the regular season. Corey Perry led all scorers with 34 goals, Ryan Getzlaff led in assists with 50. Three other players scored 20 goals or more, Ryan Kesler, Rickard Rakell and Jakob Silfverberg. The key to stop Anaheim is to not allow their lethal power play a chance. They converted at a 23.1% clip for the season, the top power play in the NHL for the regular season.
On the blueline, the Ducks are stingy… very stingy… giving up a league leading 2.29 goals per game… another league leading stat. Anaheim’s defense is young, physical and not afraid to jump up into the play. The top two d pair in Cam Fowler/Kevin Bieksa and Hampus Lindholm/Josh Manson are very solid. Bieksa is the minutes muncher and has had an excellent season… this is a very, very good defensive team.
In net… the Ducks do have an excellent tandem of goaltenders. All-Star John Gibson and Frederik Andersen. Heading into the series, Andersen was getting over an injury, but looked good in their season finale. Gibson has also played well… this could be a case of a team that truly has two legitimate number one goaltenders. Andersen has the better playoff record. Anaheim head coach Bruce Boudreau is keeping his cards close to the vest and not announcing his starter for Game 1, let alone if he will continue the goalie rotation. Interesting tidbit here… no team since 1972 has won the Cup with a goaltender rotation.
Speaking of Bruce Boudreau, he has almost been relieved of his duties a few times in Anaheim… but each time has pulled back from the abyss with a great performance. This team needs to continue its progress in the playoffs for the hot seat to cool off a bit… progress for this team means a trip to the Stanley Cup Final. There are significant expectations for this team as most pundits predicted a finals run and a championship preseason… which is why most pundits have picked the Ducks to win this series in a walk.
The knock on Nashville for the past… well forever… has been the lack of goal scoring (even if the stats didn’t bear that out) … this season, the Predators posted a solid 228 goals with a +13 goal differential with two 30+ goal scorers in Filip Forsberg and James Neal and two more 20+ goal scorers in Craig Smith and Shea Weber along with a career best 16 from Calle Jarnkrok. Adding Ryan Johansen in January was a huge pickup for Nashville, filling a critical need for the Preds, a true 1C. This team can score and for the first season in a long time, you haven’t heard “SHOOOOOOT!” being screamed from the Smashville faithful. The Preds shoot like Chicago votes, early and often.
They have been a very good puck possession team as well… all of these bode well for the series against Anaheim… a critical point for this forward group needs to maintain is their discipline. Untimely penalties will be the death of Nashville’s playoff dreams. This team matches up well with the Ducks five-on-five… they need to keep it that way so the Predators can press their speed advantage. The X-Factor at forward has got to be Colin Wilson… he was outstanding against the Blackhawks in the playoffs last season and after a poor regular season at best, he needs to find his groove and quick for this team to move on…
Defensively, Nashville’s blueline is one of the best in the league. Led by their top pairing, perennial Norris candidate, All-Star Shea Weber and his right hand man, All-Star Roman Josi, well, there simply is not a better top pairing in the league right now. The second pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis really came into their own this season, Ellis has always been a heckuva quarterback for the power play, but he has really stepped his game up and Ekholm has blossomed over the past two seasons into an excellent NHL defenseman. The third pair will come from a combination of Barrett Jackman, Petter Granberg and Anthony Bitetto.
In net… well, let’s put it out there. If Pekka Rinne looks like the goaltender that backstopped the Preds from mid-February through the end of the season… the Predators will be in this one… if he looks like the goaltender that was playing in December… this could be a short series. It really isn't fair to lay that all on him, however… the Predators were not playing good team defense during that horrid stretch that everyone in Smashville is trying to forget. Rinne was hung out to dry more than Mama’s laundry. With the tightened defensive play we have seen since the week before the All-Star break, there is no reason to expect any kind of decline in the big Finn’s game now that the playoffs are here.
Peter Laviolette enters his second playoffs as Preds bench boss, unlike his counterpart, he has two Stanley Cup Finals on his resume and a Cup ring. His system is all about pace... faster, faster, faster and the Preds have the speed to play that type of up-tempo game. He encourages the defense to step up into the offense and that has paid off with the highest scoring defense in the league.
From a health perspective, the Predators come into this series in good shape, with the only major injury is Gabriel Bourque who is still trying to recover from a midseason injury. The Ducks, well… they were a bit of the walking wounded with Rickard Rakell, Brandon Pirri and David Perron finishing the season injured and goaltender Frederik Andersen recovering from a late season concussion, but as ofg this writing... all of these players are projected to start tonight.
So… who’s gonna win this series?
The experts say it won’t even be close… according to almost everyone, the Preds are out-gunned, out-manned, out-numbered, out-planned... the entire staff at ESPN.com picked Anaheim, all but three of the staff at NHL.com picked Anaheim. The entire staff at NHL Network picked Anaheim… Analytic experts pick Anaheim... aww hell… why even play the games?
Just give the series to the Ducks… Let’s go home… nothing to see here…
Wait, what? We got to play ‘em… ummmmm... well OK… if we have to.
Let’s get real a second… for just a millisecond… (sorry, couldn’t resist yet another Hamilton reference) This series is a lot closer than the experts would have you believe. The teams are dead even in possession stats, goaltending down the stretch is a draw… offense, defense… there is flat out not much difference between these two teams, and oh… by the way… the Predators have taken their one and only playoff matchup, a decisive 4-2 win in 2011.
The Predators will not throw away their shot (there I go again) and I do expect a close series that will go at least 6. Not stating the obvious, but a split in the first two games is key... the world turns upside down (now stop that!) if the Preds come back to Smashville tied at one game each.
Puck drops at 9:30pm central for Game One… coverage on 102.5 the Game, Fox Sports Tennessee (in Preds viewing area) and NBCSN nationally. Tonight we begin the journey to find out who lives, who dies and who tells our story... :-)
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