Over the weekend, I saw a posting on Twitter that just set me off. I’ve let these go for awhile now… but now, I have to go here. I’m completely sick of the arrogance of selective reporting from multiple members of media in multiple markets, sidelong tweets, silly speculation with no basis in fact, continuing to keep alive a narrative that was resolved almost two years ago. I feel a rant coming on, here we go…
Attention media from across the NHL… are you listening?
Shea Weber is not being traded. He is the captain of the Nashville Predators and will remain such until the Predators decide that he no longer will be or his contract expires… at the end of the 2025-26 season. That is Fact One.
Let’s look at some more of the facts. Not the things being made up by our friends in various media outlets… y’know, facts… like… facts add a lot to a story. They are pesky little buggers and tend to remain fairly constant. Fact One is above… let’s look at a couple of more.
Fact Two –
Shea Weber wants to be in Nashville… period.
I know that may be hard for some folks to believe but it is the truth. I’ve heard the shrieking that “if he wanted to be in Nashville, he wouldn’t have signed the offer sheet.” Actually… the reverse of that is true… it is because he either wanted to go to Philadelphia
OR stay in Nashville that he did sign it. A lot of folks forget that very important “or.” The simple fact is… If Shea Weber did not want to remain in Music City, he would’ve signed the one year RFA contract for the qualifying amount at the end of the 2012 season and left as a UFA after last season, and before anyone goes here, Weber would’ve played for $8.2 million in ’12-‘13. It is the only logical reasoning behind why the situation played out like it did. If Weber did not want to be in Nashville, he would have told Predators brass exactly that, yes, he’s just that kind of guy… then he would have played out the string and now would be playing for a different team.
Fact Three -
It makes no business sense whatsoever.
Put aside the fact that Shea Weber is arguably the best defenseman in the league, an elite player… and that trading him for anything less than a “Herschel Walker to the Vikings” return would get any GM fired… well, maybe not the Islander’s GM… but any other GM would lose his job. Look, David Poile is not perfect, but there is a reason he has held only two GM jobs over a 30 year career as a GM, he gave up a franchise defenseman once and simply isn’t going to allow it to happen again… unless it is a simply stupid trade a trade that guts the team trading for Weber… let’s say something like Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier, a couple of first round draft picks and a lifetime supply of cheesesteaks from either Pat’s or Geno’s. That ain’t happening.
Fact Four -
The Dollars Drive the Decision.
In two seasons, the Nashville Predators have paid out $28 million on a $110 million contract, $26 million of it came out in 366 days. That is 25.5% of the entire 14 year contract paid out in two seasons. That’s 25% of the contract’s value in only 14% of the contract time. With every passing season the math for trading the best defenseman in the league gets worse and worse. In two more seasons, the contract will have paid Weber $56 million, 51% of the money in 29% of the time. By the end of the 2018 season, six years into the contract, 73% of the contract’s value is paid in only 43% of the contract’s time. At that point Weber is 33 years old, still in the prime of a defenseman’s career and Nashville then is only paying $30 million dollars for the last
eight years of the contract for one of the best defensemen in the league. Shea Weber then becomes an absolute steal at $6 million a year for the next four seasons. Remember, big defensemen play well into their late 30’s… just look at players like Zdeno Chara.
Sure it’s an easy narrative to say, poor, small market Nashville… but the facts (there’s that word again) don’t bear that out. It makes me wonder why speculation about trading a player with 12 years remaining on his contract continues. You don’t hear that about Sidney Crosby, or any other top ten player in the league that is on a long-term contract. Heck, you’re not even hearing speculation about PK Subban… a player heading into free agency.
The plain and simple and mostly unstated fact, is that a team tried to bully their way to what they needed by using everything they could,
within the bounds of the CBA in force at the time. I don’t blame Philadelphia for that, they were playing within the rules in place at the time. I get that, but the fact is… the job didn’t get done and frankly, I think it brought about a situation that appears to have poisoned what had been a pretty good and fruitful relationship between the two clubs. Nashville and Philadelphia were frequent trading partners prior to this situation, executing 19 deals over 13 years, sending popular current Flyers like Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen to the City of Brotherly Love. Since that fateful July of 2012, how many transactions have occurred between the two teams?
Nada… nothing… bupkas.
Now, it may be a coincidence and it may be an unintended consequence of utilizing an unpopular tool, but it does appear to be a consequence.
Why hasn’t anyone called that out? But some members of the media in multiple markets can’t believe the facts and quite frankly don’t want to... I guess it must be driving clicks to their work because this narrative continues to perpetuate, it doesn’t even have to be at the trade deadline, it goes on all year.
Now… there is one more fact to this whole situation that is very clear, this type of speculation does one more thing. It is doing an injustice to the fans in each of these markets to keep this narrative alive…
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Getting out on the road may be just what the Nashville Predators need. It’s a rare Monday game night for Nashville and they are in Ottawa to take on the Senators. The Predators have dropped their last four games, all on home ice, and have all but been eliminated from playoff contention. They are mathematically alive, but let’s be honest here kids… for a 95% chance of making the playoffs, this team needs to go 16-2-1. That would give Nashville 95 points and a 5% chance of still missing the post season.
I’m not trying to paint a bleak picture… the situation is what it is. Trailing the final playoff spot by ten points is a tough hole to dig out of with 18 to play. Now, have things like that happened? Yes… and frankly, with the puck luck this team has had over this season, it would be poetic justice if it did, but the time is close to start looking ahead, and we will do that over the next few weeks.
The Predators come into tonight’s game fully healthy with a sickly offense. Since the Olympic break, the team has scored six goals in five games, and three of ‘em came on the first game back. Since the calendar turned to March, the team has scored three goals and has gone 0-4. The real hell of it all is that they have gotten help from those above them in the standings and they have just not been able to take advantage of it. They have gotten incredible goaltending from Pekka Rinne, but the story of this season is goal scoring… or the lack thereof.
Ottawa is still in the mix for an Eastern Conference playoff spot. They trail Columbus and Detroit by four points and are in desperate need of win streak as they have four teams to leap over to get that final slot. The Senators are fairly healthy, only listing Clark MacArthur as questionable.
Sometime the road is just what the doctor ordered, the three game road trip begins tonight with a 6:30pm faceoff. Radio coverage is on 102.5 the Game and the Predators Radio Network, TV is on Fox Sports Tennessee with the Voice of the Predators Pete Weber and Terry Crisp.
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Random Notes
- Colton Sissons has been called up for tonight’s game in Ottawa.
- At the Predators next home game, there is going to be an Alumni game following. It’s the Preds alumni, featuring Cliff Ronning, JP Dumont, Stu Grimson and more against the Blues alumni. It should be a great time and it will immediately follow the Preds/Blues Saturday night.
- To find some extra offense, maybe the Predators need to look no further than Milwaukee. The Admirals have been on a scoring rampage lately, putting up nine in last week’s Rinne Return game… then pasting Rockford with eight on Friday night and six more on Saturday.
- New acquisition Calle Jarnkrok has announced his presence with authority with the Admirals. He has 3 goals and an assist in his first two games with Milwaukee, combining with Filip Forsberg on three of these points.
- Annual March GM Meetings start today in Boca Raton, FL with some interesting things are on the agenda including a look at video review and overtime changes.
- Eight games tonight – 6pm start – Penguins @ Capitals. 6:30pm starts – Predators @ Senators, Coyotes @ Lightning. 7:30pm start – Blue Jackets @ Stars. 8pm starts – Jets @ Avalanche, Kings @ Flames. 9pm starts – Islanders @ Canucks, Maple Leafs @ Ducks.
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