The trade deadline is fast approaching. The Blue Jackets are unfortunately going to be sellers again this season. Last deadline day they sold off pieces like James Wisniewski and Jordan Leopold. This season there is no shortage of rumours and for good reason. The Jackets cap situation is not ideal, and many young players, notably Ryan Murray, Seth Jones and Boone Jenner, are restricted free agents and will need new deals. This situation has led to rumours surrounding the veteran players who have money and term on their deals.
Over the next few weeks I am going to take a closer look at these players to see what type of value they have and if they could be on the move. I’ll dive into past trades and take a stab at what the Jackets could realistically expect to get back if they move the player in question. Finally I’ll make a prediction on where I think the player ends up.
To kick things off we begin with Scott Hartnell.
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Pros: Over the last three seasons Hartnell has been a first line player in every sense of the word. Even if you limit it to just this season Hartnell has again been a first liner. He’s been through the playoff grind before having been to the Cup Final with Philadelphia in 2010.
Cons: The two things against Hartnell are his age and contract. At 34 he's not getting any younger. Considering his physical style of play he’s someone you could foresee breaking down.
Per General Fanager his contract runs for another three seasons after this, at a cap hit of 4.75M.
So what could the Jackets reasonably expect to get if they moved Hartnell? I looked at the trades made during the last two deadlines to find comparable players to Hartnell.
The players most comparable to Hartnell who got dealt at the deadline are; Jaromir Jagr, who went from New Jersey to Florida for a 2nd and a conditional 3rd, Marian Gaborik who went from Columbus to LA for Matt Frattin, a 2nd and a conditional 3rd, Thomas Vanek who went from the Islanders to Montreal for Sebastian Collberg and a conditional 2nd, and Tuomo Ruuto who went from Carolina to New Jersey for Andrei Lokionov and a conditional 3rd.
If Hartnell were a rental player I could easily see him fetching a first round pick. He's comparable to Gaborik and Vanek, who yes didn’t go for first round picks, but easily could (should?) have.
The issue though is that Hartnell is not a rental player. The last two years on his deal could handcuff a team if he's not the same player he is today. On the other hand teams could also look at it like they are getting a good player for the rest of the season, potentially next season as well and not worry about the rest of the deal.
Potential Destinations
This where it gets tricky, Hartnell does have a no move clause so he controls his own fate to an extent. He did waive it to come to Columbus and may be willing to waive it again.
A team acquiring Hartnell has to have a need for a veteran offensive winger and the cap space to be able to take on his contact. The best fit I see for Hartnell is with the Arizona Coyotes. They are outside of the playoffs and could be looking to add a player to help them get in. They are a young group so there could be a need for a player who’s been there before. They are expected to have roughly 11M in cap space at the end of the season, more than enough to fit in Hartnell. The remaining years on Hartnell’s deal wouldn’t be an issue either as many of the key players on Arizona are still on entry level contracts. They will be cheap for the next couple seasons.
Prediction: Hartnell is traded to the Coyotes for a 2nd and a conditional 3rd. The condition being that the Coyotes make the playoffs.
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