The first player to sign their ELC from the Blue Jackets 2015 draft class is second round pick, 38th overall Paul Bittner.
Jarmo Kekalainen is very high on Bittner and rated him as a first round prospect entering the draft.
They’re off to a good start in that regard, as the Jackets’ first three picks (Werenski, Carlsson and Bittner) came from their “Priority 1” list – players they had in the first round range.
“I predicted to our guys that we were going to get three out of our Priority 1 and they laughed at me,” Kekalainen said with a wry smile. “I laughed at them at the end of the draft.”
Quote from
BlueJackets.com
Bittner is very big at 6’4, 202lbs, but many scouts mention that he skates like he's 5’11. He doesn’t have the high end skill of some of the other Blue Jackets prospects, but he's not terrible in that regard either. He's got decent hands and a rocket shot. He showed off that shot in the CHL Top Prospect Game where he scored a nice goal just ripping it past the goalie. He had a good season in the WHL scoring 34 goals and putting up 71 points in 66 games.
While those numbers are good there is a rather large elephant in the room, which needs to be addressed. Bittner played on one of the most productive lines in the WHL teaming up with fellow CBJ prospect, Oliver Bjorkstrand and Jets prospect Nic Petan. Bjorkstand lead the WHL in points and Petan ranked seventh. Bittner was clearly the third wheel on that line and his offensive production could have just been a benefit of playing with those two stars.
To see how much Bittner benefited from these two players we turn to a stat called with or without you (WOWY). For NHL players this is used to show how players perform when on the ice together vs when separated. For junior players I look how players perform when they are in the lineup together vs when they are out of the lineup.
With NHL Camps and the World Juniors, Bittner managed to player a few games without Petan and Bjorkstrand in the lineup, and the results are as follows.
With Petan and Bjorkstrand/Without Petan and Bjorkstrand
Games 55/ 11
Goals 29/ 05
Assists 32/ 05
Points 61/ 10
Points Per Game 1.11/ 0.91
% Change -18%
Small sample size applies here but this is a good sign. Any player’s performance would drop in this situation, but I expected it to be much much worse. Bittner is almost a point per game player without those two superstars. He doesn’t appear to alter his style in anyway sporting very similar goals to assist ratio in both situations.
Another point in Bittner’s favour was that he was very good at the WJC summer camp, where of course he didn’t play with Petan or Bjorkstrand. He did play with some very good players but he showed he can play well with different line mates.
While these signs are encouraging they still don’t tell us everything. With Petan and Bjorkstand graduating to the AHL this year Bittner has a chance to show what he can do apart from them over a full season. As a late 1996 born player this will be his last season in the WHL. He is going to be the go to guy in Portland and will have to adjust to being the focal point of the opposing team.
If he can succeed in that situation next season I really like his chances at becoming a very good NHL player, and someone who everyone will look back on as a steal at 38.
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