The Jackets interest in Matt Duchene has been well documented. The Jackets are looking for scoring punch and help down the middle and Duchene brings both of those things. The rumoured return for Duchene has seemed to centre around Ryan Murray, which up until now has made sense. Colorado is re-building and is looking for help on defence. Murray is a young defencemen who could be a part of that re-build. Joe Sakic and the Avalanche however, seem to have other ideas.
Elliotte Friedman on Edmonton’s 630 CHED, had this to say about the Avs and Murray.
“Duchene… some people rip the Avalanche and they say they’re being obstinate. Their perspective is – look, one of the guys Columbus was talking about was Ryan Murray. And I really don’t like where I’m going to go with this because I have a bad feeling it’s going to be totally misinterpreted – because I don’t want to insult Ryan Murray. But the way Colorado looks at it is he is their fifth defenseman. ‘We’re not trading Matt Duchene for a fifth defenseman.’
“Now, I don’t think that Ryan Murray is a fifth defenseman. I think on that team he has become one. And he has become expendable. They look at Werenski. They look at Savard. Look at their trade for Seth Jones. They’ve got a couple of really good young kids coming. They’ve kept their veteran in Jack Johnson.
“So in Columbus’ eyes, Murray has fallen down their depth chart. And I think Colorado looks at that and says, ‘Why are we going to make a deal for a guy – yes, he can help us. But it’s not really hurting them to give him up.’
“And I hope that doesn’t get misconstrued as an insult to Ryan Murray because that’s not what I mean by it. I’m just saying he’s not one of their top D. So I think that’s kind of part of the problem, is they look at it and say, ‘Well we need more than that.’ “
Transcription from
FanRag Sports
Now this is an interesting way to look at it, and if you take it at face value, Colorado is right. Murray averaged 18:20 in all situations last season, fifth among Jacket defenders. He was the fifth defencemen on the team, but as Friedman alludes to, that says more about the Jackets d-core than about Murray himself. The Jackets defence was strong, with the emergence of Zach Werenski and the resurgent seasons from David Savard and Jack Johnson.
If we read between the lines here perhaps there is more to these comments than we think. Take a look at Murray’s Hero chart from
Own the Puck and how he stacks up compared to a third pair defender.
Other than ice time, Murray is below the average for each category. What really jumps out is his shot generation. Murray is known more for his defensive prowess but even his shot suppression numbers are not very good. The counter point to this is that Murray has not had a steady partner. It would be difficult for any player to have success when they keep bouncing around like Murray has. To counter that point, Murray has not had very much success with any defensive partner, outside of James Wisniewski.
Stats from
Stats.HockeyAnalysis
Here is how Murray has performed with every defence partner he has played at least 100 5 on 5 minutes with in his career, sorted from left to right, most minutes to fewest. The Wisniewski-Murray pair was really good; they had both a Corsi For percentage and a goals for percentage over 50%. Murray does not have a 50% Corsi For with any other partner. That is a bad sign and a reason why he has slipped down the depth chart like he has. His goal numbers look a little better but they are mostly propped up in some of the smaller samples with Goloubef and Connauton. Murray hasn’t shown enough in his time with the Jackets to make a team like Colorado think he’s more than a #5 defencemen.
This is not a situation like Seth Jones and Nashville. When Nashville dealt Jones he was on their third pair, but it was clear that he was far better than that and was ready to take on a larger role. With Murray that isn’t clear. Even if we just focus on this season, Murray’s play doesn’t stand out as someone who’s ready for a bigger role.
This is Murray’s with our without you stats for the bottom six/pair players he played at least 100 minutes with. When playing with Murray only one player, Scott Hartnell had a 50% Corsi. Looking at the middle bars, Murray for the most part was worse off when apart from these players, suggesting he was being carried most of the time. The exception being Matt Calvert, he and Murray were much better apart than together. The big takeaway from this chart and what I found to be most shocking are the green bars. They are how each player played when apart from Murray. Every single player here was better off when they were apart from Murray. He was dragging them down and in the case of the fourth line, dragging them down a significant amount. Sedlak, Gagner and Hartnell were all well over 50% when away from Murray.
It’s not even like Murray was struggling because he was playing with less skilled players, this same trend showed when he played with the top six and top four players.
Johnson and Murray were disastrous in their time together. They mostly played together when Savard was hurt, with Murray forced to play on his off-side. That no doubt brought down that pair, but it is still not an encouraging sign. We see the same things we saw in the prior chart. Murray dragged down everyone he saw significant ice time with. They are all well under 50% Corsi, and most are at 45% or lower. And again we see that each player performed much much better when away from Murray.
Is Ryan Murray being overvalued in these negotiations? It’s quite possible that he is. I know I have been a big supporter of his talent level and still believe in him in spite of the poor numbers, that he can be good defencemen in the NHL. When you watch him he shows flashes of the skill that made him the #2 overall pick, but it’s not there consistently enough for him to breakout and take the next step. He’s had stretches of good performances in the past, notably with Wisniewski and for a brief time Jones. Remember, Murray was on Team North America as one of the seven best defencemen under the age of 23 from Canada and the US. He was there more so to play with Jones, but still someone outside of the Columbus organization thought enough him to bring on the team.
To conclude is Joe Sakic right about Ryan Murray? The answer has to be yes. Based off of this past season, Murray has played like a #5 defencemen, and over his career he has performed at a third pair level. He was a drag on his teammates as they played much better when apart from him. He has potential and shows it the occasional game, which is why people around the Blue Jackets think he could be the key part of a Matt Duchene trade. Joe Sakic and the Avalanche clearly think differently, and that’s why a deal has yet to get done.
You can follow me on Twitter
@PaulBerthelot 
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»