It’s early but I think this is a fair question to ask at this point. The Blue Jackets currently have the highest power play percentage at 35.0% and the sixth best penalty kill at 88.9%. Special teams have been a big reason for the solid 4-3-1 start this team has been off too. But how sustainable is this? Are the Jackets being buoyed by a strong shooting percentage on the PP or the beneficiaries of strong goal-tending on the PK? By looking past goals we can answer these questions and get a feel for whether this success will continue or if regression is in store.
To start take a look at the graph posted by Carolyn Wilke.
Corrected: PP/PK Success (only change is line colors, data was correct) pic.twitter.com/7kHUsKH1uD
— Carolyn Wilke (@Classlicity) November 2, 2016
What this chart is showing is a team’s Corsi for per 60 on the power play (the x-axis) vs. a team’s Corsi against per 60 on the penalty kill. The graph is split into quadrants and you can see they are labelled; good, bad, all PP and all PK. The Jackets are in top right of the graph, indicating they are in the good quadrant, but they are not as high or as far right as you would expect given their ranking in the league.
The Blue Jackets have an 85.71% Corsi on the power play per Natural Stat Trick. That ranks near the bottom of the league at 23rd. They also rank near the bottom in terms of shots for percentage, taking just 79.31% of the shots, which ranks 26th in the league. This same trend follows when you look at both scoring chances and high danger chances. The goals are there, but they are not getting the volume of chances you expect a top power play team to get.
What has led to success on the Jackets power play has been a league leading 30.43 shooting percentage. That is by far the highest rate in the league, ranking 6.62% higher than the second place Pittsburgh Penguins. That shooting percentage is going to regress as the season moves on. The Jackets do not have the elite shooters that a Pittsburgh does to maintain such a high rate. The highest shooting team last season shot 18.35% on the power play. The Jackets are definitely in store for some PP regression.
On the penalty kill the Jackets have a 17.17% Corsi, which ranks fourth in the league. With players like William Karlsson, Cam Atkinson and Matt Calvert, the Jackets have taken advantage of their speed to create offensive opportunities when short-handed. The Jackets have been able to create 11 scoring chances on the PK which is second in league to the Anaheim Ducks who have 12, though the Ducks have played in 11 games versus the Jackets eight. The Jackets have also managed eight high danger chances which is tied for the led with the Ducks.
Having an offensive penalty kill is great but it doesn’t mean the Jackets PK is going to remain successful. As the old saying goes “your goalie has to be your best penalty killer,… and this couldn’t be truer for the Jackets. Sergei Bobrovsky has been unbelievable on the penalty kill this season, stopping 93.62% of the shots he has faced. That ranks third in the league behind the Wild and Oilers. There will be some regression but it won’t be as dramatic as the power play shooting percentage. The highest team last season posted a 90.82 sv% on the PK. If Bobrovsky can stay healthy and continues to play the way he has been playing there is no reason he couldn’t put up a number similar to that.
Understanding that regression is coming, what impact will that have on the graphs above? Carolyn posted the same graph but used expected goals (xG).
Here are the same two special teams charts using xG, which factors things like shot location & type into an expected goal model: pic.twitter.com/0Mvi9fjTUG
— Carolyn Wilke (@Classlicity) November 2, 2016
xG is a stat created by Emmanuel Perry. The data can be found on his website Corsica and you read about xG in his blog which you can find here.
In the graph we see the Jackets are in the “all PP… quadrant. There are many things that go into expected goals, including, as Carolyn tweets, shot location and type. xG expects regression from where the Jackets currently are but still has them as a strong power play unit. If the Jackets continue what they have done on the power play, they will end up as one of the best power play teams in the league, even when they regress from their current rate.
The other big takeaway from this xG chart is it expects the Jackets PK to take a huge step back. At 4 on 5 the Jackets have allowed just two goals all season. xG however expected them to allow about seven. Bobrovsky has bailed this team out big time on the PK. The Jackets need to perhaps start looking at adjusting their PK style to take some pressure off of Bob. I’m not a systems person by any means but perhaps having the forwards always looking to create offense is hurting the overall effectiveness of the PK.
Finally Carolyn’s other chart is showing xG and flipped special teams. Basically it’s how well teams do at generating offense on the PK and allowing offense on the PP. The Blue Jackets are in the fun section, indicating that they create chances on the PK, but also allow chances on the PP. They play high event special teams which can be fun (stressful?) for fans.
The Jackets special teams have been a strong spot for the team this season. They helped propel the team to a solid start. Looking deeper this success rate is not sustainable over a whole season. While the power play success will come down, looking at stats like Corsi and expected goals, the Jackets should remain one of the best power play teams in the league. The penalty kill however is a different story. The Jackets have relied far too much on goal-tender Sergei Bobrovsky to bail them out with big saves. They need to potentially look at revamping their PK system, because if Bobrovsky stops making those highlight reel saves, this PK could find itself near the bottom of the league.
You can follow me on Twitter @PaulBerthelot