The Leafs are in Columbus tonight and bring with them their team of rookies, led by the trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander. With Toronto comes Toronto media and the second hottest topic after the Leafs playoff push is the Calder Trophy race.
As things stand right now the leader and very likely the winner is Patrik Laine. He leads all rookies with 33 goals, and 60 points. Matthews is right behind however with 32 goals and 57 points. After those two things get murky with Marner and Nylander, Zach Werenki and even Matt Tkachuk or Matt Murray could squeak into that third spot.
Personally I don’t see Murray ending up in the top three. He’s had a great season on a really good team, but he hasn’t had an otherworldly season and that’s what you need to win the Calder as a goalie. It’s for that same reason that players like Sebastian Aho and Anthony Mantha aren’t even in the conversation. They are both having incredible seasons but they are just a step below the big guns in this rookie class.
Werenski as a defencemen doesn’t have the goal scoring accolades of a Laine or Matthews, but he does dish the puck about as well as any rookie. His 35 assists are second behind Marner’s 39. Werenski also does a ton of his damage on the power play. His 21 power play points are second be Nylander’s 23. This does hurt Werenski a bit however; the others are all very good 5 on 5 scorers. Werenski’s points per 60 (
data via Corsica) is at 0.98 the lowest of the six rookies in question. Laine leads the way at 2.51.
Context is important here when looking at forwards versus a defencemen. Werenski is one of just 51 rookie defencemen all time to score at least 40 points. In comparison there have been 402 forwards to score 40 points as a rookie. Werenski is also one of just 10 teenaged rookie defencemen to score 40 points. He sits in sixth on that list, two points back of Bryan Berard and Tyler Myers for fourth. Compared again to forwards, there have been 75 teenaged rookie forwards to score at least 40 points. In terms of historical scoring Werenski gets the edge.
There is more to the game than just scoring. Part of these awards in the overall impact a player has had. This is where Laine is slightly dinged because while he's been great the Jets are not going to make the playoffs. Werenski as you can see in the tweet above has had a huge impact in the Jackets turnaround. Tkachuk has had a big impact on the Flames as well, and is a part of why they are back in the playoff chase. Tkachuk leads the rookies with a 56.18% Corsi For at 5 on 5. Werenski is second at 53.68%. This trend hold up whether you look at shots, or scoring chances. Tkachuk has been the best, but Werenski is not far behind.
As far as playing well when the most people are watching, in Weresnki’s only game against the Leafs this season he had two assists, while the Leafs trio was held pointless. Werenski has also had two assists in two games against the Flames and another two assists in one game against the Jets. Who knows if he had some extra motivation in those games or not, but he's played extremely well when up against the other top rookies.
With that in mind Werenski should have another very impactful game tonight. The Leafs are a hungry team and will be doing everything they can to stay in the playoff race. The Jackets need points as well, as they try to keep up with Pittsburgh and Washington in the race for the Metro and ultimately the race for the President’s Trophy. All three teams want that top spot so they avoid each other in the first round. Both the Jackets and Leafs have something to play for which should make for a great game tonight.
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