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Are the Montreal Canadiens interested in Pierre-Luc Dubois?

January 16, 2018, 10:55 AM ET [3 Comments]
Paul Berthelot
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet during the intermission feature “Headlines” reported that the Montreal Canadiens still have interest in is Blue Jackets centre Pierre-Luc Dubois. This interest in Dubois goes all the way back to the 2016 draft when Montreal tried to move up in the draft so that they could pick Dubois.



Kypreos notes how Dubois stock has risen but not to the point that he is an untouchable player for the Blue Jackets. Kypreos further mentions he doesn’t think the Jackets will entertain any offers on Dubois until the team is fully healthy, which means getting key forwards Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson back.

Dubois stock has risen significantly this season. He’s found chemistry alongside Artemi Panarin and Josh Anderson and has emerged as the team’s top centre. Dubois offense isn’t quite that of a top centre, he has 22 points in 46 games. If you remove Dubois first month of the season in which he struggled to find a role on this team, his numbers look significantly better. Dubois had one point in 12 October games, since then he's has had 21 in 34, a much more respectable rate.

Where Dubois really stands out is in his underlying numbers. His Corsi at 5 on 5 this season is 57.72%, fifth among all NHL forwards who have played 400 minutes. The four players ahead of Dubois, Panarin, Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Brandon Saad, are some of the best two way players in the game. That top line is sheltered, and Panarin obviously drives the line offensively but for Dubois to be able to play with Panarin and contribute is a huge testament to his abilities.



Columbus’ window to win is right now, Kypreos says that, and Dubois helps them win now. Moving him at this point makes no sense. Dubois as a rookie is an extremely valuable commodity and not just for what he provides on the ice.

Rookies as per the NHL CBA have to sign entry-level contracts. This severely limits what
players can earn and offer significant value to the team. According to Cap Friendly Dubois’ cap hit this season is just $894,166. That is far below what Dubois is worth, and even with performance bonuses the max Dubois can earn is $3,394,166, again far less than what he would get on the open market. Dubois’ ELC is three years so not only is he making below market value this season but will be for the following two years after that.

Once an ELC expires the team still retains a player’s rights through restricted free agency. Players get paid as RFA’s but it’s still below what they are worth. Take for example Seth Jones. Jones is one of the best young defencemen in the league, but he makes just $5.4M per year, as he signed his deal as an RFA.

The Jackets have Dubois under team control through his ELC and as a restricted free agent until he is 26 years old. That is some serious value and that needs to be considered when talking about trading a player like this. In order to deal Dubois the Jackets would have to get a player who is significantly better than Dubois back or a similarly skilled player to Dubois who has similar years of control.

For example trading Dubois for a player like Alex Galchenyuk doesn’t make much sense from the Blue Jackets perspective. Elliotte Freidman briefly followed up Kypreos and mentioned Galchenyuk as a player the Blue Jackets have in the past been interested in. An argument could be made that Galchenyuk is a better player than Dubois.



Dubois is a better shot contributor but Galchenyuk is better at zone entries and exits. For Dubois his entry and exit numbers are lower as he defers to Panarin and lets him carry the puck. The other caveat here is that Galchenyuk’s deal only runs through 2019-20, at which point he will be a UFA. Dubois by having those extra years of control makes him a far more valuable asset.

Montreal like many teams should have interest in Pierre-Luc Dubois. He’s playing as a top centre and has been a possession monster. His offensive game is coming along but most importantly he's under team control for at least another seven seasons. This is a very valuable asset and while it might not be an untouchable one this is not someone you just give away. At this stage it’s hard to fathom the Blue Jackets trading Dubois in a deal that makes sense for them.

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